Friday, October 31, 2008

HORSERACE

McCain Voters Less Likely To Respond To Exit Pollsters

Obviously, it's tough to measure the attitudes of those who refuse to talk to pollsters, but this question in Fox News' latest survey confirms a long-held suspicion:

40. Every election, the television networks conduct exit polls of people as they leave their polling places on Election Day. If you were asked to participate, how likely is it you would be willing to spend 10 minutes filling out a questionnaire?

Obama voterswho responded very likely/somewhat likely: 77 percent.

McCain voters who responded very likely/somewhat likely: 64 percent.

Obama voters who responded not very likely/not at all likely: 20 percent.

McCain voters who responded not very likely/not at all likely: 32 percent.

Will the networks even acknowledge the fact that one candidate's voters are less likely to be represented in the exit polls?

Now, I'll tell you now - polls close first in Kentucky, Indiana, Georgia and Virginia at 7 p.m. eastern Tuesday . I find it extremely likely that Indiana and Virginia will be called for Obama immediately after the polls close by at least one network, based on these exit polls that have fewer pro-McCain respondents.

The ingredients are there for a rerun of 2004, when the exit polls indicated a Kerry victory and deviated signficantly from the actual results.

10/31 09:31 AMShare