Monday, January 07, 2008

HORSERACE

Dixville Notch: Quaint, But Not Predictive.

If you instantly recognize the name "Dixville Notch," you're a true political geek. If you don't, maybe you remember the West Wing episode, "Hartsfield's Landing," which was about a thinly-veiled fictional version of the tiny town that votes first on primary day, right after midnight, and is the first results to be revealed on Election Day.

Quaint and picturesque and wonderfully traditional as the little town is, the winner of the town's 20some votes isn't necessarily going to go on to win the state. In fact, the results have been quite the opposite in recent cycles.

If Dixville Notch were predictive, then in 2004 Wesley Clark would have won New Hampshire. John Kerry did.

If Dixville Notch were predictive, then in 2000, Bill Bradley would have won the Democratic primary. Al Gore did (although Bradley finished within four percent, one of his best showings). George W. Bush would have won the GOP primary, and we all recall that McCain won big.

If Dixville Notch were predictive, then in 1996, Bob Dole would have won the New Hampshire GOP primary. Pat Buchanan did (although Dole was within a percentage point or so).

If Dixville Notch were predictive, then in 1992, Bill Clinton would have won New Hampshire. Paul Tsongas did (although Clinton did manage to persuade the press that his second-place finish made him 'The Comeback Kid').

If Dixville Notch were predictive, then in 1988, Dick Gephardt would have won New Hampshire's Democratic primary; Michael Dukakis won by 16 percent. George H.W. Bush would have won the GOP primary and... hey, wait, Dixville Notch got one right!

So late this evening, or early tomorrow morning, we'll hear about the winner of Dixville Notch, something like 12 votes to 10. And that will be nice, but all that will get the winner is 12 votes...

01/07 09:55 AMShare