Remember Who's Saying 'The Recession Is Over'

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

BARACK OBAMA

Yesterday I saw the headline on ABC News, "Recession Is Over According to Financial Experts."

I figured there was a 50/50 chance that the headline was overstating the usual we've-hit-bottom-and-it-will-stop-getting-worse analysis vs. cheerleading for the Obama administration's fast work.

Well, this morning offers some news to suggest we've still got a lot of economic tough times ahead. First, retail sales:

Retailers logged a second straight month of sales declines in April as consumers continued to pull back on all types of unessential purchases, the government reported Wednesday.

The Commerce Department said total retail sales fell 0.4% last month, compared with March's revised decline of 1.3%.

Sales in March were originally reported to have declined 1.2%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had been expecting April sales to be unchanged from the previous month.

Then foreclosures:

Foreclosures in April exceeded even March's blistering pace with a record 342,000 homes receiving notices of default, auction notices or undergoing bank repossessions, according to a regular industry report.

One of every 374 U.S. homes received a filing during the month, the highest monthly rate that RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed properties, has recorded in four-plus years of record keeping.

"April was a shocker," said Rick Sharga, a spokesman for RealtyTrac. "I would have bet on a dip because March foreclosures were so high.

Instead, filings inched up 1% from March and rose 32% compared with April 2008.

(Remember that President Obama unveiled his housing plan in February, full of regulatory changes, not slow-moving legislation that requires congressional action, and since then we've had the two months with the highest rates of foreclosures.)

Keep that ABC News headline in mind in the coming months. Let's see how the current quarter turns out.

05/13 09:20 AM Share