Wednesday, April 02, 2008

BARACK OBAMA, HORSERACE

Obama Leading in Pennsylvania?

The Public Policy Polling group offers a stunning result: Barack Obama leading in Pennsylvania by 2. And it isn't a poll of adults, or small sample size, either: "PPP surveyed 1224 likely Democratic primary voters on March 31st and April 1st. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed nd weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify."

Talking with some well-connected GOP consultants yesterday, the big topic of speculation was whether Obama's recent jump in the polls in Pennsylvania (her lead down to 6 percent in the RCP average!) was genuine, or whether there's some inverse impact of Jeremiah Wright occuring, with a heavy-duty Bradley/Wilder effect.

(Saying amongst a group of Democrats, "I won't vote for Obama because of his pastor" may trigger a charge of racism. Saying amongst a group of Democrats "I won't vote for Hillary because of her story of dodging sniper fire in Bosnia" doesn't seem likely to trigger a charge of sexism.")

We won't know until Pennsylvania actually votes whether the voters are wary of revealing their real choice to a pollster.

UPDATE: Moments after I post this, I get a note from Quinnipiac, offering contradictory evidence:

Hillary Clinton holds a 50 – 41 percent lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters and runs better against Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican nominee in Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 53 – 41 percent lead in a March 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University. In general election match ups of the three largest and most important swing states in the Electoral College, the survey finds.
Florida: Clinton 44 percent - McCain 42 percent; McCain beats Obama 46 – 37 percent;
Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 – 39 percent; Obama gets 43 percent to McCain’s 42 percent;
Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 48 – 40 percent; Obama leads McCain 43 – 39 percent.

Quinnipiac has that standard racial polarization: "Clinton leads 59 – 34 percent among white Pennsylvania likely primary voters, while Obama leads 73 – 11 percent among black Democrats."

04/02 10:32 AM Share