Thursday, October 25, 2007

FRED THOMPSON, JOHN MCCAIN, MIKE HUCKABEE, RUDY GIULIANI, MITT ROMNEY

How Each of the Big Five Can Win The Nomination

Talking with campaign folks,  looking at polls, and examining the calendar, we can get a sense of the five different paths each candidate is mapping out to the nomination:

Huckabee: First, he has to do very well in Iowa. Huck’s got to make a heck of a splash, win outright, or place a close second or third. From there, he's got to do something to maintain that momentum in New Hampshire, even though it’s not the most fertile ground for his type of appeal. By “something,” I’m thinking a respectable double digit finish. Then move on to South Carolina and win. Along the way, he’s got to catch fire in a state like Michigan or Florida, or maybe even Maine, someplace he isn’t expected to do well, to demonstrate that he can appeal outside the deep south or beyond  religious conservatives. Along the way, Huckabee needs a little help – he needs Romney to come out of Iowa and New Hampshire weakened, for Giuliani to look like the man who could tear apart the GOP, for Thompson to look narcoleptic, and for McCain to start reminding Republican voters of all the times he’s ticked them off. I think much of the GOP electorate is open to his message; if the “gut-level connection” is what clinched the nomination for Bush in 2000, Huckabee might be the candidate who could best mimic that appeal.

McCain: It’s simple, but he needs a unique set of circumstances. If the field narrows to Giuliani, Huckabee, and himself, he can probably close the deal as the consensus candidate, the man who won’t infuriate social conservatives or fiscal conservatives, the man acceptable to both the Club For Growth and the Family Research Council. (For all of his problems, McCain’s still running a consistent third in the national polls.) To get there, he needs Thompson and Romney, the two guys who can also contend for that, “I Can Unite the Party” title, to stumble early.

(UPDATE: Then again, maybe not. Nachama Soloveichik, the Club for Growth's communications director, writes in, "McCain is not acceptable to the CFG.  I obviously don’t speak for FRC, but I’m not sure he’s acceptable to them either," pointing out that his level of support in the straw poll was actually behind Giuliani.)

He’s not expected to do anything in Iowa right now. McCain is doing respectably in New Hampshire and probably has to do quite well there (can he repeat his 2000 win?); he should be able to do respectably in South Carolina. He’s got to get his numbers higher in Michigan, another state he won in 2000. By the time Super Duper Tuesday rolls around, he needs a common phrase to be, ‘boy, McCain did better than I thought he would.’

Romney: For now, his mission is to just “keep on truckin’”, although it would be nice for his national poll numbers to get up a bit. (The highest Rasmussen has had him lately is at 16 percent, ARG’s had him at 15 percent.) His rivals think his Iowa lead is soft and his New Hampshire lead is slipping; he’s still up in the Granite State anywhere from one to 11 points. To me, the big lingering question is whether he’ll have enough time for his wins in either or both of these two states to really generate momentum. He’s got the resources to fight and win an air war with any rival; like the Colorado Rockies getting hot in the postseason, Romney needs to be hitting his stride in the weeks running up to Iowa and beyond.

Losing either Iowa or New Hampshire will hurt him badly — probably not enough to drive him out of the race, but blowing a longtime, and pretty significant lead will get him compared a lot to this year’s New York Mets.

Thompson: He’s got one of the most non-traditional routes to the presidency. Maybe if he makes a real push in Iowa, he could steal it from Romney, but it isn’t clear that Team Fred wants to try that path. For now, he’s just got to meet expectations in Iowa, which is to place a respectable second or third. (Third place looks much better if the top three are 28 percent-25 percent-23 percent than if it’s 35 percent- 21 percent – 14 percent.)

He’s polling badly in New Hampshire, and his style doesn’t seem like a good fit there. His team will never admit they’re conceding the state, but one wonders if it would be best to let Giuliani, Romney, and McCain slug it out there while he shores up what has to be his bulwark, South Carolina. (If he can sneak in a win in Wyoming or Nevada before then, it’s a bonus.) A big win there should knock out any other contenders to the social-conservative mantle, and then it’s on to Florida, where Thompson has spent quite a bit of time.

Finally, if it’s a two man race by Super Duper Tuesday on Feb. 5, Thompson’s team will want to sweep Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia (and hope that his total number of delegates outpaces Giuliani, expected to do well in California, New York, New* Jersey, and Connecticut).

I’ve said earlier that I have an easy time picturing the race coming down to Rudy and Not Rudy, and the Not Rudy candidate winning in the end as Republicans conclude they’re just not comfortable with a candidate with Giuliani’s flaws on abortion, guns, and gays. It’s in Thompson’s interest that he be seen as the most viable Not Rudy candidate as quickly as possible.

Giuliani: When you’ve led all the national polls, most by quite a bit, for much of the year, you’re sitting pretty.

He’s actually in the mix for (a distant) second place in Iowa right now, having spent little money there. My guess is that he never really commits whole hog (no pun intended) and focuses instead on New Hampshire, where he’s doing surprisingly well. The Granite State might actually be turning somewhat ‘must win’ for him, or at least ‘must do well’, since he’s consistently placing in the low to mid 20s and second place. A win here and he could really hurt Romney.

Giuliani’s still doing surprisingly well in South Carolina; like Iowa, it’s one of those places where a respectable second place finish would do him a lot of good. Most polls have him doing pretty well in Michigan, too; the former mayor could rack up a lot of decent second and third place finishes before getting to the day his campaign has been eyeing from the beginning, February 5.

Besides sweeping his most friendly territory on that date – NY, NJ, CT, CA, Delaware, Illinois – Giuliani needs the Not Rudy candidate to come out of the Not Rudy mini-primary bruised. Republican voters know his weaknesses; a pro-choice nominee is a big, and somewhat scary change for the GOP. Presuming that he doesn’t have the nomination locked up by February 5, in those subsequent primaries  – February 9 (Louisiana, Washington), February 12 (Maryland, Virginia), February 19 (Washington, Wisconsin), March 4 (Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont) – Giuliani has to make clear that whatever his flaws, the Not Rudy candidate’s flaws would be worse.

By then, Hillary Clinton will have long since clinched the Democratic nomination, and perhaps that looming challenge will weigh heavily on Republican primary voters’ minds.

UPDATE: * First wrote "Jew Jersey." Not a Freudian slip. Please direct your outraged mail to my relatives in Israel.

10/25 05:00 PMShare