The Sunday Night Take From Obi-Wan

Sunday, November 02, 2008

HORSERACE, BARACK OBAMA, JOHN MCCAIN

Obi-Wan and I have checked in with each other, periodically, throughout the day. Here's his take as of this evening:

Zogby’s suggestion of a McCain move over the weekend — and he has, in the past, picked up a candidate surging before other pollsters — turned out instead to be something else he is inclined to do: tickle an evening’s numbers to get some news coverage.

But we’ve seen some good polling out today, and some good polling on Monday night for McCain marks the return of some of the strength he showed when he grabbed the lead in September before the banking crisis and when he moved six points in a week following the last debate. (He had made it a one or two point race in four polls, before the stock market trouble started again.) So on Election Day, Obama has maybe a three or four point lead, underperforms his polling again and the Electoral College math works in favor of the Republicans. Or Pennsylvania comes through. McCain pollster Bill McInturff was suggesting something like this on Friday. If this happened it would mean the media mania didn’t push people into voting for Obama but only into saying they were voting him. Or it could mean the models for turnout were wrong in missing that the high levels of interest in this election also included voting blocs that are pro-McCain.

So here is the McCain supporter’s homework assignment. First, polls like Gallup, Washington Post/ABC, and some of the others with voting models that give enormous advantages to Democratic turnout will be right or wrong Tuesday night. *

[Obi had said a variation of this point to me Sunday afternoon and had included Pew, but then we saw Pew claiming that Obama’s lead among likely voters had shrunk from 15 to 6. I see that as an “apology” poll, Obi wonders if Pew seeing the same movement that IBD/TIPP is.]

The returns must be their judge. We will find out whether they suffered from the same inner culture that skewed the exit polls in 2004. Ignore’em for now. Instead, tomorrow morning look at Battleground which has a good record and, again, has it around four now. If Obama’s numbers are starting to decline then go to Rasmussen. His turnout model is more favorable towards Obama but he will probably catch a fall-off in Obama’s numbers if it is happening. At midday watch for IBD-TIPP, the most accurate poll in 04. It has got it around two now and is actually saying for the record that Obama may have picked up strength over the weekend only because trick-or-treating Republican parents weren’t answering polling calls. If Obama’s strength shows a fall in that poll, consult this space and find out what you are saying about Pennsylvania. In addition, do not neglect your prayer life.

Despite some readers’ requests that he give them an assurance their preferred candidate is going to win, Obi-Wan isn’t ready to make any predictions. Having said that, he thinks tomorrow morning’s polling will say a lot.

11/02 08:32 PM Share