Thursday, November 05, 2009

HORSERACE

Democratic Incumbent Governors Increasingly Toasty-Looking

This morning's Washington Post quotes Robert Ehrlich, former governor of Maryland, saying he's thinking of running for that office again, telling the paper he plans to conduct polls and convene focus groups in coming weeks to help determine whether a rematch with Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) might be winnable.

Maryland Democrats will probably scoff at the idea that a Republican win by 18 percentage points in a neighboring state should mean something to them. But Maryland's unemployment rate is 7.2 percent; the month O'Malley beat Ehrlich, it was 3.6 percent. It's quite possible that things will be only marginally better, the same, or worse a year from now; Ehrlich could probably get quite a bit of traction on, "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"

I asked a Republican who's watching the 2010 governors' races which Democratic incumbents reminded him the most of Jon Corzine — i.e., not-terribly-popular governors in states with high unemployment and an increasingly cranky, anti-incumbent-minded electorate. He said that if the electorate breaks in November 2010 the way it did Tuesday, we will see Republican victories in . . .

Massachusetts: Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick has had miserable approval ratings some months; the Republicans interested in his job include Charles D. Baker Jr. and Christy P. Mihos; Tim Cahill is expected to run as an independent. One wonders if the experience of Chris Daggett will suggest that third-party bids are unlikely to save embattled incumbents.

The Bay State's unemployment rate is currently 9.3 percent; it was 4.3 percent the month Patrick won.

New York: Obviously, this depends greatly on whether Rudy Giuliani runs on the Republican side, and whether Andrew Cuomo runs on the Democratic side. Incumbent David Paterson looks like toast; former congressman Rick Lazio is also running, but appears likely to face a steep uphill climb.

Four years ago, New York elected Eliot Spitzer their governor, at a time when the unemployment rate was 4.2 percent; today it is 8.9 percent.

Ohio: Gov. Ted Strickland's numbers have looked okay some months, and not so good in others; he's drawn a top-tier challenger in former congressman John Kasich. The state's Democratic party is saying they expect a close race next year.

Unemployment in Ohio was 5.2 percent the month Strickland won; it is now 10.1 percent.

Illinois: Pat Quinn has only been governor since the beginning of the year, and he'll face at least one primary challenger in Dan Hynes, and quite a few Illinois Republicans are actively seeking the gubernatorial nomination or thinking about it.

The unemployment rate in Illinois was 3.9 percent the month that the state proudly (heh) reelected Rod Blagojevich; it was 10.5 percent in September.

Iowa: Chet Culver was looking okay until former governor Terry Branstad, the longest-serving governor in Iowa history, indicated he was interested in moving back in to his old address. Branstad polls exceptionally well in a state that had been trending heavily Democrat.

Iowa's unemployment situation isn't as bad as that of some other states, but they've seen a jump; the unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in November 2006, and it was 6.7 percent in September.

Colorado: Bill Ritter has yet to top former congressman Scott McInnis in any poll conducted in 2009. Obviously, that could change, and McInnis will face some primary opposition, including state senator Josh Penry, before taking on Ritter. But Ritter has reason to sweat with rather mediocre approval ratings.

Unemployment in Colorado was 3.9 percent in November 2006; it was 7 percent in September.

This Republican also sees Maryland as very competitive if Ehrlich gets in.

This Republican thinks the only Democrats who look well-positioned for 2010 are John Lynch in New Hampshire and Mike Beebe in Arkansas.

11/05 10:17 AMShare