http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com The Campaign Spot is National Review Online’s blog for all things political and campaign-related. The blog is written by Jim Geraghty, author of Voting to Kill: How 9/11 Launched the Era of Republican Leadership. en-us © National Review Online 2009. All Rights Reserved webmaster@nationalreview.com (NRO Webmaster) Wed, 10 Feb 2010 09:00:35 -0500 Wed, 10 Feb 2010 09:00:35 -0500 NRO RSS Generator v1.0 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss 5 http://www2.nationalreview.com/images/nro_rsslogo.jpg http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com 144 80 National Review Online webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2M2ZjgzZGVhODk1ZDNkYTRlNzU0ZWUxZDVlNDJiOGM= There was a rumor that Rep. Vern Ehlers, Michigan Republican is retiring, and he'll <a href="http://new.whtc.com/news/articles/2010/feb/10/ehlers-announce-future-plans-today/" target="_blank">announce his future plans </a>later today.</p> <p>If he does retire, this should be a relatively easy seat for the GOP to retain. Two Republicans had already announced they were running against Ehlers in the primary: <span><span style="new roman,times;"><a href="http://www.michaelvankleeckforcongress.com/home.php" target="_blank">Michael Van Kleeck</a> and state representative <a href="http://www.wzzm13.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=118351&catid=48" target="_blank">Justin Amash</a>. No Democrats had announced for office yet; the <a href="http://www.politics1.com/mi.htm" target="_blank">filing deadline</a> is May 11. The Grand Rapids-focused district narrowly supported McCain in the 2008 presidential election (49.4 percent to 48.8 percent),while Obama was carrying the state overall by 57 percent to 41 percent. </span></span><span><span style="new roman,times;">Ehlers won with 61 percent.</span></span></p> <p><span><span style="new roman,times;">Michigan's Third Congressional District has a Cook Partisan Voting index score of R+6. </span></span></p> <p><span><span style="new roman,times;"><br /></span></span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2M2ZjgzZGVhODk1ZDNkYTRlNzU0ZWUxZDVlNDJiOGM= Wed, 10 Feb 2010 08:44:15 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTcwZjJmYjI0Y2I4Zjk5Y2ViY2U1NmEwOWM4Y2IzODQ= Marco Rubio says he's very close" to achieving his goal with his "Stimulus Bomb." The aim was to raise $787,000 in ten days, ending today, the one-year anniversary of when his rival, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, attended a rally for the stimulus.</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="560" height="340" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Xm6ImmfChLM&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="560" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Xm6ImmfChLM&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed> </object> </p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTcwZjJmYjI0Y2I4Zjk5Y2ViY2U1NmEwOWM4Y2IzODQ= Wed, 10 Feb 2010 08:28:16 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWE5OWFkY2EzOTJiM2MxZWY0MzMxMWE4N2E2NThkYmQ= I have a hard time believing the <em>Washington Post</em> <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/10/AR2010021000010.html?hpid=topnews" target="_blank">ran these sentences</a> with a straight face:</p> <blockquote> <p> The president and his allies have started a new political offensive, seeking to rebound from the Democrats' loss of the Massachusetts Senate seat long held by the late Edward M. Kennedy and salvage their effort to enact comprehensive health-care reform.<br /><br />Obama has begun to try to appeal to voters who see Washington as broken by stressing his commitment to bipartisanship, while aggressively trying to rebut GOP criticisms of his policies. At the same time, he has sought to refocus his energy on the economy and job creation, which remains the public's top priority.</p> </blockquote> <p><strong>Contradiction One:</strong> The President and his allies are seeking to salvage their effort to enact health care reform, while simultaneously refocusing his energy on the economy and job creation. There are only so many hours in a day, and a White House's most valuable and limited resource is the president's time and attention. Between health care and the economy, one issue, inevitably, has to get less attention than the other.</p> <p><strong>Contradiction Two: </strong>Obama is "stressing his commitment to bipartisanship, while aggressively trying to rebut GOP criticisms of his policies." When neither approach seems to work, I can understand why. <em>"I'm trying to work hand-in-hand with those nihilist, ruthlessly partisan, insane teabaggers."</em></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWE5OWFkY2EzOTJiM2MxZWY0MzMxMWE4N2E2NThkYmQ= Wed, 10 Feb 2010 08:13:34 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWQyYTBmM2M0ODJiZDA3YzllNDIxMjUzYzI0M2JmOTE= <a href="http://article.nationalreview.com/424527/after-murtha/jim-geraghty?page=1" target="_blank">Over on the homepage</a>, I take a look at how the election for the congressional seat formerly occupied by John Murtha will proceed. I note that there are some parallels for last year's New York 23rd District mess, but it appears the Pennsylvania state party is at least trying to get a broad representation of Republicans from the district to weigh in on the candidate selection process:</p> <blockquote> <p>To vote for one of these two Republicans, or any other, each precinct will get one representative, plus an additional representative for each 1,000 votes it cast for McCain in the 2008 presidential election, explained Michael Barley, the communications director of the <a href="http://www.pagop.org/"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Pennsylvania Republican party</span></a>. Each county Republican party has its own process of selecting its representatives; some will be appointed by the county chair, others may be selected by panels.</p> </blockquote> <p>Of course, some folks might object that the precinct representatives are a bunch of party insiders. Still, <a href="http://www.timburnsforcongress.com/#_" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Tim Burns</span></a>, <a href="http://russellbrigade.com/" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Bill Russell,</span></a> and anyone else interested in running will get a chance to make their pitch to the assembled precinct representatives. And the weighting ensures that the most heavily-Republican portions of the district get the most say.</p> <p>Also note that once again, the National Republican Congressional Committee will not have a say in the candidate selection process.</p> <p>Of course, whoever loses that party selection process can still run in November; the primary for that election is expected to be the same day: "The <a class="iAs" style="border-bottom: 0.075em solid darkgreen ! important; font-weight: normal ! important; ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; padding-bottom: 1px ! important; ! important; background-! important; background-image: none; padding-top: 0pt; padding-right: 0pt; padding-left: 0pt;" href="http://article.nationalreview.com/424527/after-murtha/jim-geraghty?page=2" target="_blank">winner</a> will proceed to face a Democrat in the special election; since the special election and the primary will take place on the same day, it is possible that two different Republicans could win — the special-election winner would serve out the remainder of Murtha’s term, and the primary winner would run in the general election in November. Barley notes that this has happened in lower-ticket races in the past."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWQyYTBmM2M0ODJiZDA3YzllNDIxMjUzYzI0M2JmOTE= Wed, 10 Feb 2010 08:03:20 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWIxMDY4YTM0OTdiNDA0Nzk1NjQzOTQyYmU0NDIzNzY= Two bits from the Wednesday edition of the Morning Jolt:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">Obama’s national security team is like the Iran and Iraq war: I keep looking for somebody to root for, and just find more villains. The one who we thought was the hawk, Hillary, seems to be in the witness protection program; apparently Brennan is there to make Dennis Blair look good, Blair acts like <a href="http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2009/jun/14/david-ignatius-intelligence-turf-war-has-to-be/">his primary target in the war on terror is Leon</a> Panetta and appears to be in place to make Eric Holder look good; Holder acts like his biggest worry is that bin Laden will run afoul of the mob in <em><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ox-Bow_Incident">The Ox-Bow Incident</a></em> and yet somehow Holder looks like <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Palmer_%2824_character%29">David Palmer</a> in a crisis compared to <a href="http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDI5MWQzZjJjZDIxZTQ3MTJkNTUxNzM5MjY5Y2UyMzk=">Janet “All is Well” Napolitano</a>. You would call them the gang that can’t shoot straight, except that their aim seems to magically improve once the target is somebody pointing out the administration’s failures.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Sen. Kit Bond (R., Mo.), vice chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, <a href="http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTY1N2RhMDcyZWIzYjI1NmJlNGQ1ZTFkMzdjZTZiODk=">tells <span style="font-variant: small-caps;">National Review Online</span></a> that Brennan’s op-ed is “baffling” and part of a “political mess at the White House” that “puts our country at risk.” Bond says that Brennan “needs to go,” and is no longer “credible.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/12699">A.J. Strata</a>: “It is clear from the Ft Hood Massacre and the Christmas Day Bombing attempt that Brennan, Holder and Obama succeeded in implementing their plan to be less reactive to every possible lead. They set the warning sensor to the ‘middle’ and it missed two very dangerous individuals as a result. Brennan is out fighting for his life now because he and Holder have been trying to make the claim they had permission from all over the intel community and from the GOP congress to lawyer up Abdulmutallab. <a href="http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2010/02/someone-is-lying-about-detroit.html">As Doug Ross notes - someone is lying</a>. Brennan has to be desperate to cover his tracks by taking on Congressional leaders in the House an Senate. Only a fool calls congressional leaders essentially liars - <a href="http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/GOP-fires-back-White-House-did-not-tell-us-about-reading-Abdulmutallab-his-rights-83760942.html">and the GOP leaders are challenging Brennan</a>.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">I would note Speaker Pelosi claimed that the CIA “lied to Congress all the time” with no serious political consequence.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Erick Erickson <a href="http://www.redstate.com/erick/2010/02/09/it-is-barack-obama-serving-al-qaedas-goals/">will have none of this</a>: “There is no greater aider and abetter of Al Qaeda than Barack Obama’s White House. Through sheer incompetence and arrogance, they are handing over to Al Qaeda vital intelligence and giving them all the PR they need to effectively recruit new terrorists. How many Americans will die because of Barack Obama’s handling of national security?”</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">Meanwhile, a good indicator of how state governments are quietly strangling any recovery through runaway taxation:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=",helvetica,sans-serif;">One of my recurring observations is that even if Obama has not raised most taxes in his first year (although he did raise taxes on tobacco products), state and local governments went on a tax-hiking spree in 2009, which adds to the public perception that government at all levels is taking more and expanding wildly. CNN Money <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/09/news/economy/unemployment_taxes/">spotlights a good example of this</a>: “Employers are getting hit with a massive tax hike at a time when they can least afford it. Companies in at least 35 states will have to fork over more in unemployment insurance taxes this year, according to the National Association of State Workforce Agencies. The median increase will be 27.5%. And employers in places such as Hawaii and Florida could see levies skyrocket more than ten-fold.”</span></p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWIxMDY4YTM0OTdiNDA0Nzk1NjQzOTQyYmU0NDIzNzY= Wed, 10 Feb 2010 07:48:28 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTE5OGM1ZGI5ODUyZWE4Njc5OTQxYTBmMzA0NGMwZTI= <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-the-next-crisis-will-be-a-tax-revolt-because-government-salaries-are-relatively-outrageous-2010-2" target="_blank">Henry Blodget</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>On TechTicker this morning, Gary Shilling highlighted a trend that many folks are increasingly angry about: The growing divergence between private sector and public sector compensation and benefits. Specifically, many <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/police-officer-responds-to-six-figure-federal-salary-gravy-train-post-2009-12">public sector employees now make a lot more than their private sector counterparts</a>.  And that, says Gary, will eventually lead to a tax revolt.</p> </blockquote> <p>Wait, <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/118809/the-two-americas-public-sector-vs-private-sector" target="_blank">there's more</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p><span>The number of federal employees making $100,000 or more has increased by 120,595, from 262,163 employees in December 2007 to 382,758 in June 2009, for a 46% increase. The number of federal workers making $150,000 or more has more than doubled since the recession started, from about 30,000 to more than 66,000 (see chart above).</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span>(Actually, there are some government jobs I don't mind paying top dollar for. For example, I'd gladly pay $100,000 or more to the folks out trying to catch bin Laden and his cohorts. But in that case, I'd just prefer to move to a cash-bonus system for each body part they recover.)<br /></span></p> <p><span>So, does this revolt catch fire this tax season or next?</span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTE5OGM1ZGI5ODUyZWE4Njc5OTQxYTBmMzA0NGMwZTI= Tue, 09 Feb 2010 16:55:00 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTI0ZjYwY2ZkMzQ1ZDFkMDgwYjhiM2EyYjU4YTEzNDc= An Obama <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/news-conference-president-2910" target="_blank">statement from today</a> to file away for future reference: "The CEOs I talked to are saying they are now making investments, and I anticipate that they're going to start hiring at a more rapid clip."</p> <p>These sorts of statements have a tendency to not work out well for President Obama, at least so far.</p> <p>Just about a year ago, Obama said, <em>"Yesterday, Jim, the head of Caterpillar, said that if Congress passes our plan, this company will be able to rehire some of the folks who were just laid off."</em></p> <p>Caterpillar was offering "Hey, wait, we didn't really say that" <a href="http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2009/02/obama-economy-2.html" target="_blank">cautions</a> <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzMwOTNjNDZmYWRlZGM2ODA3ZTNjMmMwNWI2YjJmOGI=" target="_blank">the day afterward</a>.</p> <p>Then in <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MmJiNDU4OTAwYmU1NDc2YTFmNzAyZWNkY2FlMDIyN2I=" target="_blank">March</a>, Caterpillar laid off about 2,400 workers.</p> <p>And then in <a href="http://www.pjstar.com/news/x631623156/Cat-to-shut-down-Peoria-area-facilities-for-next-two-weeks" target="_blank">July</a>: "Thousands of Caterpillar Inc. employees will either be on vacation or temporarily laid off in the Peoria area over the next two weeks, the company confirmed Friday."</p> <p>All told, <a href="http://www.thestreet.com/story/10667506/1/caterpillar-belle-of-the-bellwethers.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN" target="_blank">it was a brutal year:</a> "The company has saved its bottom line from turning red by making a series of vicious cost cuts, including 30,000 layoffs."</p> <p>So when "they'll be rehiring people" means "tens of thousands will be laid off," perhaps we should be wary of happy talk from CEOs to the president.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTI0ZjYwY2ZkMzQ1ZDFkMDgwYjhiM2EyYjU4YTEzNDc= Tue, 09 Feb 2010 16:46:40 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzQ4ZGJjYjIwZjI4OTU3MTJlYzM5MWZiNDVhZDk5ODc= The NRCC looks back and <a href="http://tweetphoto.com/10879068" target="_blank">edits a 2003 press release from Nancy Pelosi</a>, when she wailed about President Bush's failure on the economy, back when the unemployment rate was . . . wait for it!</p> <p><em><a href="http://www.econedlink.org/lessons/index.php?lesson=485&page=teacher" target="_blank">6.2 percent</a>.</em></p> <p>Doesn't a 6.2 percent unemployment rate look <em>awesome </em>right about now?</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzQ4ZGJjYjIwZjI4OTU3MTJlYzM5MWZiNDVhZDk5ODc= Tue, 09 Feb 2010 16:36:53 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmIwMGUxYWI2YzVmNDMxYTRlZWE4ZjIwNjljNmI0MTM= President Obama, in his inaugural address: "We remain a young nation, but in the words of Scripture, the time has come to set aside childish things."</p> <p>Clearly the response from Robert Gibbs is, "<a href="http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9DOREHG0&show_article=1" target="_blank">Talk to the hand</a>!"</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmIwMGUxYWI2YzVmNDMxYTRlZWE4ZjIwNjljNmI0MTM= Tue, 09 Feb 2010 16:01:04 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDYxZWUxYzcwNGUwZTM4ZTc1NDQyNDEwYzVmYmQ3Yzg= The Republican party of Virginia calls my attention to <a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0210/32741.html#ixzz0f4fVEqRF" target="_blank">this comment from former governor Doug Wilder</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>I am an admirer of Tim Kaine, whom I backed in his current position and as one of my successors as Virginia governor and even recommended for the vice presidency. But a spate of recent losses in races that Democrats should have won underscores what has been obvious to me for a long time: The chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee is the wrong job for him.</p> </blockquote> <p>What surprises me most is that RPV is showcasing this comment. Now that we have a real, full-time governor in Bob McDonnell, doesn't the state GOP want Kaine where he can do the most damage?</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDYxZWUxYzcwNGUwZTM4ZTc1NDQyNDEwYzVmYmQ3Yzg= Tue, 09 Feb 2010 15:54:41 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGNiY2IyODJhZDFmN2Y3YzNkYWJjYzQzZDZiOWIxZGM= Looking again at <a href="http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2010/02/opposing-view-we-need-no-lectures.html" target="_blank">that John Brennan op-ed</a> in <em>USA Today</em>, I see he refers to Abdulmutallab as a "suspect" but asserts that administration critics, ipso facto, "serve the goals of al-Qaeda."</p> <p>In other words, in the eyes of one the administration's top men on counterterrorism, Abdulmutallab gets a presumption of innocence <em>that you and I don't</em>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGNiY2IyODJhZDFmN2Y3YzNkYWJjYzQzZDZiOWIxZGM= Tue, 09 Feb 2010 10:48:43 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDBmNmQ1MDc0YmQzM2YyMjA1YzYzZjNhZTVjMzk5MTM= That's the headline to the <a href="http://blogs.investors.com/capitalhill/index.php/home/35-politics/1371-americans-losing-hope-looking-for-change" target="_blank">latest <em>Investors Business Daily</em>/TIPP poll</a>.</p> <blockquote> <p>Voters are souring on the economy and the government’s remedies, according to February's IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. It fell 4.1% to 46.8, matching December’s level and the weakest since July.</p> <p>“Persisting high unemployment and a wobbly stock market dampened January’s optimism,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, IBD’s polling partner. Readings below 50 signal pessimism.</p> <p>Confidence in federal economic politics dived 7% to 38.3, the lowest since President Obama took office. That's consistent with other polls showing a strong shift by Americans away from big government over the past year. The $787 billion stimulus failed to keep unemployment from soaring to double digits, now 9.7%. But it helped the deficit explode to $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2009, with $1.6 trillion seen in 2010.</p> </blockquote> <p>And it is indeed focused on the president and his decisions in particular:</p> <blockquote> <p>Independents disapprove of Obama’s handling of economic issues by a 2-1 ratio (50%-25%). Just 3% think he’s doing an excellent job while 29% say it’s unacceptable. This <a href="http://blogs.investors.com/capitalhill/index.php/home/35-politics/1154-ibd-poll-obamas-independent-woes-intensify">extends a recent trend</a>.</p> <p>Swing voters’ view of Obama’s overall job performance sank 7.9% in February to 40.8, a new low for him. A year earlier, the rating was 72.9.</p> </blockquote> <p>Wait, there's more: "Three-fourths of <a href="http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=520527">independents have a favorable view of the tea party movement</a> <em>and</em> say one-party control of the White House and Congress has been bad."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDBmNmQ1MDc0YmQzM2YyMjA1YzYzZjNhZTVjMzk5MTM= Tue, 09 Feb 2010 10:16:45 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGU5ZmY1N2Q0M2Q0ZTVhYzdkZDA3NDI1YWQ4MGVmNDA= <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDRmOGMyYWRiMGU4ZjA0YTU3OGUyNTQyNmNlYzliZDk=" target="_blank">Michelle Obama, back in April 2008</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>The truth is, in order to get things like universal health care and a revamped education system, then someone is going to have to give up a piece of their pie so that someone else can have more.</p> </blockquote> <p>The news, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/09/AR2010020900791.html?hpid=moreheadlines" target="_blank">today</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>First lady Michelle Obama launched a nationwide campaign Tuesday to fight childhood obesity, part of her effort to teach America's children about better nutrition and exercise.</p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGU5ZmY1N2Q0M2Q0ZTVhYzdkZDA3NDI1YWQ4MGVmNDA= Tue, 09 Feb 2010 09:57:45 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjczY2E0MmNmYTMwYjlmNmY4ZjBhNWEwMDc1ZTkzMDE= There's still the better part of a year to go, but prospects for some GOP House seat pickups in New Hampshire <a href="http://www.nowhampshire.com/2010/02/09/poll-shea-porter%E2%80%99s-antics-catching-up-to-her/" target="_blank">look pretty healthy</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>According to a <a href="http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2010_winter_congapp20810.pdf">new poll</a> by the University of New Hampshire only 35% of likely voters approve of the job [Rep. Carol] Shea-Porter is doing in Congress. 40% disapprove. 24% are neutral or don’t know for sure how they feel. Even worse, all potential Republican candidates for Congress -- even the lesser-known candidates -- would defeat her if the election were held today. Former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta performs best against Shea-Porter, defeating her in a hypothetical match up <a href="http://www.wmur.com/politics/22503250/detail.html">43% -33%.</a></p> </blockquote> <p>But at least things look better for Democrats in the state's other seat. <a href="http://www.wmur.com/politics/22503250/detail.html" target="_blank">Oh, wait, they don't</a>.</p> <blockquote> <p>In the 2nd Congressional District, Smith said name recognition works for Republican Charlie Bass, who has 37 percent of the vote against Democrat Katrina Swett's 30 percent. Bass also is getting 39 percent support against Ann McLane Kuster's 28 percent.</p> </blockquote> <p>Well, that open seat in the 2nd district is from a congressman running for the Senate, so they've got their A-team of talent in the statewide race . . . eh, no, never mind, things look bad there, too:</p> <blockquote> <p>In the Senate race, most eyes are on Democratic U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes versus Republican Kelly Ayotte. The poll shows Hodes with 33 percent support compared to Ayotte's 41 percent. But Smith said that even more concerning for Democrats is that even though Hodes leads his other contenders, he never breaks 40 percent. Hodes gets 38 percent against Republican Ovid Lamontagne's 29, 36 percent against Republican Jim Bender's 27 and 34 percent against Bill Binnie, who trails him by 4 points.</p> </blockquote> <p>Hey, New Hampshire Democrats can look at the bright side. They're on pace to enjoy a really early first-round draft pick in 2011.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjczY2E0MmNmYTMwYjlmNmY4ZjBhNWEwMDc1ZTkzMDE= Tue, 09 Feb 2010 09:45:28 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDU0ZGM0NjU4NWQyNTcxNjgzYjY2MTAzOGIyNWY3ZDI= The editors of <em>USA Today</em> are <a href="http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2010/02/debate-on-war-on-terror-our-view-national-security-team-fails-to-inspire-confidence.html" target="_blank">pretty scathing in their assessment</a> of how the Obama administration responded to the Christmas Day attack:</p> <blockquote> <p>Top administration officials revealed last week that bombing suspect Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab was again cooperating with authorities. Great. But the news pretty much negates earlier claims that no intelligence was lost when Abdulmutallab was prematurely read his rights.</p> <p>-- In Senate testimony, National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair had <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIEsvnXhoEw" target="_blank">a "Duh!" moment</a> as he hit his forehead and acknowledged that authorities fumbled the initial questioning of Abdulmutallab by failing to call in the high-value interrogation group, which was created to question terrorism suspects. Refreshingly candid, yes, but not a statement that inspires confidence. Especially when the same day, at another Senate hearing, FBI Director Robert Mueller testified that the high-value unit was still in its "formation stages" and that "there was no time" to get it to Detroit.</p> <p>All of this follows the string of blunders that allowed Abdulmutallab to carry explosives onto a U.S.- bound plane in the first place. The chaos that followed his arrest now looks just as bad.</p> <p>According to news accounts, Abdulmutallab was questioned by, and cooperated with, the FBI for a grand total of 50 minutes before going into surgery. When he emerged, he became combative, asked for a lawyer and was read his rights. (At the time, remember, no one knew whether other bombers had been dispatched simultaneously.)</p> <p>A decision of such magnitude should have involved the top brass in intelligence and law enforcement. But Blair, Mueller and Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano have all testified they were not consulted. Mueller said the decision to read the suspect his Miranda rights was made by agents in the field.</p> <p>In television appearances on Sunday, John Brennan, the White House deputy national security adviser, chafed at the criticism the intelligence community is getting. He said it was demoralizing and urged cheerleading instead. But cheerleading doesn't get problems fixed, and it's undeniable that there are plenty to address.</p> </blockquote> <p>I think <a href="http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2010/02/opposing-view-we-need-no-lectures.html" target="_blank">the response from John Brennan</a>, President Obama's top counterterrorism adviser, is<br />. . . well, a tad high on the jerk quotient, I think:</p> <blockquote> <p>We need no lectures about the fact that this nation is at war.</p> <p>Politically motivated criticism and unfounded fear-mongering only serve the goals of al-Qaeda. Terrorists are not 100-feet tall. Nor do they deserve the abject fear they seek to instill. They will, however, be dismantled and destroyed, by our military, our intelligence services and our law enforcement community. And the notion that America's counterterrorism professionals and America's system of justice are unable to handle these murderous miscreants is absurd.</p> </blockquote> <p>I wonder if he thinks the editors of <em>USA Today</em> "serve the goals of al-Qaeda."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDU0ZGM0NjU4NWQyNTcxNjgzYjY2MTAzOGIyNWY3ZDI= Tue, 09 Feb 2010 09:41:23 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTA1NjE4NmYwOGM1N2ZhZjhmZGVmNjMxZDE2M2RjZTE= From this day's edition of the <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/newsletters">Morning Jolt</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Because Calling for a Bipartisan Summit Never Fails to Solve a Problem</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Upon hearing of Obama’s call for a bipartisan summit on health care, my first instinct is that Team Obama is just trying to get a goose in their numbers - <a href="http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjYwMDlmZWJmNGViZTk0MTNkYzNhNTFhZDUxOTVjZjg=">already down a new low</a>, 44 percent, in Marist. He’s going to, what, chat with them on television for a few hours? A longer version of his Q-and-A at the House Republican retreat is going to be a game-changer, and suddenly make Americans like a bill they’ve grown to detest? Boy, this guy thinks he can speech-ify his way out of anything, huh? But apparently he’s serious.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_020810/content/01125108.guest.html"><span>Rush</span></a><span>: “Let me remind my dear friends the Republicans: Obama does not have a plan.   He has not presented a plan. He does not have his own sheaves of paper that he can throw out and say, "No, right here in my plan on page 2,940 it says you can keep your insurance plan." There is no Obama plan.  Negotiating with Obama is a waste of time.  All it's doing is helping him fulfill a photo-op promise of having this stuff televised, and it's also to set you up as the reason this didn't pass.  Obamacare reality check: The Senate Democrats, the senators of "no," cannot agree with the House Democrats.  The House Democrats, the representatives of "no," can't agree with the Senate Democrats.  What's the result?  Obama and the Democrats want to say Republicans are the party of "no." And I'm here to tell you: wear that badge with pride and honor.  Wear "The Party of 'No' to Democrat Health Care Reform as We Know it" as a badge of honor, and get out of the way of the support and campaign contributions that will flood your coffers.”</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>The initial response from GOP leaders is wary, </span><a href="http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjJjNjQwODhjMzI1ODEwMTA4N2Q2NTU3NmIxMGYyMTM="><span>with a list of questions</span></a><span>. “</span>Your answers to these critical questions will help determine whether this will be a truly open, bipartisan discussion or merely an intramural exercise before Democrats attempt to jam through a job-killing health care bill that the American people can’t afford and don’t support.  ‘Bipartisanship’ is not writing proposals of your own behind closed doors, then unveiling them and demanding Republican support.  Bipartisan ends require bipartisan means.These questions are also designed to try and make sense of the widening gap between the President’s rhetoric on bipartisanship and the reality.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="post-footers">If the GOP does go forward with the idea, Tom Maguire </span><a href="http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2010/02/obama-announces-plan-to-host-republican-surrender-ceremony.html">lays out the playbook</a><span class="post-footers">: “</span>If Republicans choose to play along with this charade I suppose they can just hammer the abortion and "Cadillac tax" questions.  Obama can get on national television and explain why we will or will not have Federally subsidized abortions.  Then he can explain why the promise he made that people who like their health care can keep it is not compromised by the excise tax (which he derided during the campaign) and why loyally Democratic union members shouldn't be subject to that tax like the rest of us. If the conversation lags, I suppose Republicans could come back to the individual mandate to buy insurance - there are endless clips from the campaign of <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2009/jul/20/barack-obama/obama-flip-flops-requiring-people-buy-health-care/">Obama explaining why those mandates were unnecessary</a> and a bad idea.  Even if he has changed his mind, it does not seem that all of the independents who voted for him have. The guy who ran against the excise tax now supports it (maybe depending on whether Dems cross that bridge by Show Time).  The guy who ran against individual mandates now support them.  If Republicans want to help Obama stage a debate, maybe they could just re-read the things he said during the campaign.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.julescrittenden.com/2010/02/08/the-superbowl-of-reality-tv-politics/">Jules Crittenden</a>: “Obama’s half-day televised bipartisan makeup session sounds more like a gimmicky setup. Something between a Survivor Tribal Council and a Hail Mary pass. After that back-and-forth with GOP House newbies, he figured out he scores more points with vapid showiness than he does when he actually tries to accomplish something. The GOP would be well-advised to dismiss it for what it is and demand that the president approach serious matters seriously, rather than with a quickie reality TV session. Or better, just dismiss it as a gimmick, inform him the clock’s running out on that game already, and let him dangle through the mid-terms.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">At NRO, <a href="http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGUzYTYxYzUyZGI4ZjE1MjBkMWVkMDRlZDE2YjJiODU=">Stephen Spruiell</a> notices liberals arguing simultaneously that Republicans have no real ideas for health care reform, and that the Democrats have already incorporated the GOP’s best ideas.<span>  </span>And he lays out how they have a funny definition of “incorporate”: “Eliminating the tax exclusion for employer-provided health benefits is a good idea, but the Democrats can't really do it — it would anger organized labor, which benefits from the preferential arrangement. So the Democrats’ Potemkin version — an excise tax that would effectively cap the value of employer-provided plans — would exempt unions. Allowing consumers to purchase insurance across state lines would reduce premiums, but it would weaken states’ power to regulate <a href="http://corner.nationalreview.com/" target="_blank">insurance companies</a>. The Democrats’ Potemkin version — a provision allowing the formation of state compacts — is meaningless: Their bill would create a massive federal regulatory apparatus that would render state regulation obsolete!”</p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTA1NjE4NmYwOGM1N2ZhZjhmZGVmNjMxZDE2M2RjZTE= Tue, 09 Feb 2010 07:29:23 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTBhNjkzYjljNmM3Mjk0NWU3NjM0MGQ2NDliNjZhOGE= According to the <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/125678/Obama-Approval-Economy-Down-Foreign-Affairs-Up.aspx?CSTS=alert" target="_blank">latest Gallup poll</a>, President Obama is underwater -- higher disapproval than approval -- in six of nine categories. He's at a 48/49 split on terrorism, a 36/60 split on health care, 36/61 split on the economy, and 32/64 split on the deficit.</p> <p>Among independents, his approval is at 35 percent on Iran, 24 percent on health care, 29 percent on the economy, 24 percent on the deficit.</p> <p>Somehow, this doesn't seem surprising.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTBhNjkzYjljNmM3Mjk0NWU3NjM0MGQ2NDliNjZhOGE= Mon, 08 Feb 2010 18:04:23 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTljNDhkZTZiNmM1MzY5ZmIyZDM2ZGMyOGZiYzdjMTY= It's not a particularly surprising endorsement, but it's still <a href="http://www.marcorubio.com/congressman-mike-pence-endorses-marco-rubio/">welcomed by Team Rubio</a>: "Congressman Mike Pence (IN-06), who currently serves as House Republican Conference Chairman, today announced his endorsement of Marco Rubio for U.S. Senate."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTljNDhkZTZiNmM1MzY5ZmIyZDM2ZGMyOGZiYzdjMTY= Mon, 08 Feb 2010 17:19:41 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTBkZjZhNWJkY2UxYjdjYWY2OGE5NGNkZGY4ZWM0ODM= From <a href="http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2010/02/rubio-stimulus-bomb-raises-more-than-400k.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+tampabaycom%2Fblogs%2Fbuzz+(The+Buzz+|+tampabay.com)" target="_blank">TampaBay.com</a>:</p> <div class="entry-content"> <div class="entry-body"> <blockquote> <p>Marco Rubio says his Stimulus Fundraising Bomb (<a href="http://www.stimulusbomb.com/">www.StimulusBomb.com</a>) has raised $411,000, just one week after launching with the goal of raising $787,000 by February 10. </p> <p>“There is no better symbol of Washington’s broken politics and policies than the failed stimulus,” said Rubio campaign spokesman Alex Burgos.  “Through StimulusBomb.com, we’re offering people a way to voice their support for limited government and opposition to the Crist-Obama agenda of tax, borrow and spend. With two days to go until the anniversary of the unforgettable Crist-Obama stimulus rally, we’re pleased with the positive response we’ve received so far.”</p> </blockquote> </div> </div><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTBkZjZhNWJkY2UxYjdjYWY2OGE5NGNkZGY4ZWM0ODM= Mon, 08 Feb 2010 16:53:20 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NGIwMWM4NTk1MjI1NmViZTU2ZmFhYThlMzE4OWQ4YmI= The Obama administration picked a hell of a day to debut a <a href="http://www.cleanskies.com/articles/commerce-sec-proposes-national-climate-service" target="_blank">new NOAA service tracking global warming</a>.</p> <p>I'm sure the turnout at the press conference would have been greater if the entire Washington metro area weren't coated in more white powder than a cartel processing room, with another ten inches or more of Winter Slurpee coming our way. Hey, guys? When schools like Loudoun are announcing they'll <a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/local-breaking-news/" target="_blank">still be closed four days from now</a>, everybody's got less time to worry about how warm we'll be a hundred years from now.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NGIwMWM4NTk1MjI1NmViZTU2ZmFhYThlMzE4OWQ4YmI= Mon, 08 Feb 2010 16:31:55 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTNkOGI0OTNjZWNlOGNhZTgxNmQwNzVhNjljMDEyY2M= Rep. John Murtha, Democrat of Pennsylvania, passed away today.</p> <p>Before this development, a pair of little-known Democrats were already challenging Murtha in the primary: <a href="http://www.ryan2010.com/" target="_blank">Ryan Bucchianeri</a> and <a href="http://www.ronmackell.com/" target="_blank">Ron Mackell, Jr</a>. On the Republican side, <a href="http://www.timburnsforcongress.com/#_" target="_blank">Tim Burns</a> and <a href="http://russellbrigade.com/" target="_blank">Bill Russell</a> were competing for the GOP nomination.<br /><br />In 2008, Russell ran against Murtha and got 42 percent of the vote (polling earlier in the race showed him closer), holding Murtha to 58 percent. That was the smallest percentage for Murtha since 1974.</p> <p>UPDATE: Chris Cillizza puts the special election on <a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/inner-circle/john-murtha-dies-special-elect.html" target="_blank">May 18</a>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTNkOGI0OTNjZWNlOGNhZTgxNmQwNzVhNjljMDEyY2M= Mon, 08 Feb 2010 15:14:37 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmY3ODE4MGFiOWI4OTZjNzM3NzQ2MmQ3ZDJmOTU4ODk= <p class="MsoNormal">James Pinkerton is always worth reading, but I think he’s stretching a bit when he offers “<a href="http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2010/02/08/james-p-pinkerton-obama-health-care-republicans/">Four Reasons Why Obama’s on a Roll</a>.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">He cites the spending freeze:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">The freeze demonstrated that Obama has at least some independence from Congressional Democrats. And so we can see at least the glimmers of Bill Clinton-style “triangulation.” And Clinton, of course, was a two-termer.</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">Yeah, but Clinton’s triangulation involved at least a few heavy-duty policy concessions, most notably welfare reform and free-trade agreements. A spending freeze that is ignored by Congress is not going to convince disappointed independents that Obama is governing as a centrist.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">He cites the Q-and-A with Republicans, and I, too, thought that was one of Obama’s better days. But I’m not sure how many Americans saw it, and even then President Obama <a href="http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2010/01/29/obamas-stunning-admission/">subtly admitted</a> that the health-care bill might have forced some Americans to give up their coverage.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">He cites the decline in the unemployment rate, although his caveat sounds heavier than the initial argument:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">Yes, yes, it fell to "only" 9.7 percent -- a figure that would have the MSM talking about "depression" if the president were a Republican. Indeed, overall employment continued to fall, too, and so there’s reason to think that we could be in a "jobless recovery" -- if, in fact, we have a recovery at all.</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">At some point,<span> </span>the condition of the economy becomes unspinnable. Somebody who’s unemployed knows if anybody’s hiring, and everyone that person knows can tell if they’ve been hired. When almost 20 percent of <a href="http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/02/something-is-going-wrong.html">men between the ages of 25 and 54</a> can’t find a job, no amount of happy talk or statistical shift is going to change public perceptions.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Pinkerton’s fourth reason is perhaps the most intriguing, arguing that Paul Ryan’s budget plan will give Obama and Democrats the chance to use proposals like “partial privatization of Social Security and the voucherization of Medicare” to drive a wedge between centrists and independents and the conservative base.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Eh, maybe. But once the figure “1.6 trillion” crops up in Washington budget discussions more often than <a href="http://lostpedia.wikia.com/wiki/The_Numbers">4 8 15 16 23 42</a> crops up on “Lost,” I wonder if the usual “they want to push granny into the street” lines lose their impact.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Remember, senior Democratic officials were <a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0110/A_defining_difference.html">convinced</a> that Scott Brown’s opposition to Obama’s new fee on Wall Street was a “game changer” <span> </span>that “proves our narrative on him as a typical, national, special interest loving Republican.” Maybe it was a game changer in the echo chamber of their frontal lobes, but most of Massachusetts shrugged at it. This is not the same anti-Bush, tired-of-Republicans, open-to-Democrats electorate that we saw in 2008.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Of course, this could change between now and November. But I don’t think that the same old tired attacks that we’ve heard in every other election are going to be what changes our current political environment.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">UPDATE: Of course, this "roll" occurs as Obama's approval rating <a href="http://maristpoll.marist.edu/28-obama-approval-rating-below-50/" target="_blank">hits 44 percent in the Marist poll</a>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmY3ODE4MGFiOWI4OTZjNzM3NzQ2MmQ3ZDJmOTU4ODk= Mon, 08 Feb 2010 15:01:18 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmRlMzY3MGNiNjdlZTMyNzZiZWU5OTgzYTVkOGIxYzU= On a second viewing, the Audi Super Bowl ad is pretty stunning in the way that it makes environmentalists look like out-of-control . . . well, <em><a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/redirect/amazon.p?j=0385511841">Liberal Fascists</a></em>, I guess you could say.</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="506" height="297" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Ml54UuAoLSo&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="506" height="297" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Ml54UuAoLSo&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></embed> </object> </p> <p>How do you like that tagline, "Green has never felt so right"? Everything that precedes it in the commercial feels wrong!</p> <p>I think this might be the biggest pop-culture zeitgeist moment since <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6Olpjl_IrE" target="_blank">Sen. Gary Shandling tried to pull a <em>Kelo v. New London</em> on Tony Stark's Iron Man suit</a>. Somehow I suspect the line, "You want my property? You can't have it!" is going to be a big, perhaps unintended applause line this summer.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmRlMzY3MGNiNjdlZTMyNzZiZWU5OTgzYTVkOGIxYzU= Mon, 08 Feb 2010 14:38:10 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MmUxNjYxZDQwMTMwMjk3MGI2NDM5MDlkNDg5ZDFmZDM= Now these are some <a href="http://maristpoll.marist.edu/28-obama-approval-rating-below-50/" target="_blank">lousy numbers for President Obama from Marist</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Fewer registered voters nationwide -- 44 percent -- currently approve of President Barack Obama’s job performance than disapprove -- 47 percent. When Marist last asked about the president’s approval rating in December, 46 percent thought well of Obama’s job performance while 44 percent gave him low marks . . . For the first time since taking office, a majority of Independents -- 57 percent -- disapproves of how he is doing in the role. 29 percent approve, and 14 percent are unsure.</p> </blockquote> <p>This number jumped out at me: "In fact, [among independents] a majority -- 52 percent -- have an unfavorable view of Mr. Obama compared with 43 percent two months ago." Keep in mind, this isn't job approval, i.e., how do you think Obama is performing his duties. This is essentially, "Do you approve of him as a person?" Obama usually garners significantly higher numbers in this category.</p> <p>In other words, independents aren't just disappointed with how Obama is as president; they're starting to <em>not like him</em>.</p> <p>Clearly, this calls for a long, heavily hyped, nationally televised speech.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MmUxNjYxZDQwMTMwMjk3MGI2NDM5MDlkNDg5ZDFmZDM= Mon, 08 Feb 2010 13:26:41 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDRjNzA1Njc0ZWViZWViNzc1Y2QwZmY2ODcxZDNhMzg= We're a bit more than two months away from another special election for the House of Representatives, in Florida's 19th congressional district. The seat was formerly held by Rep. Robert Wexler, who abruptly retired to <span style="text-decoration: line-through;">spend more time with <a href="http://www.palmbeachpost.com/politics/content/south/epaper/2008/07/29/0729wexlerresidence.html" target="_blank">his in-laws' Delray Beach apartment</a></span> become president of the Washington-based Center for Middle East Peace and Economic Cooperation. Democrat Ted Deutch will take on <a href="http://www.electlynch.com/" target="_blank">Republican Edward Lynch</a>.</p> <p>One of the reasons you haven't heard too much about this race is that it's considered a slam-dunk for the Democrats. It's a D+15 district in the Cook Partisan Voting Index, where Obama and Kerry each carried 66 percent of the vote, and its voting electorate is one of the most heavily Jewish in the country. Having said that, it's fast-growing and 17 percent Hispanic. This is one of those corners of Florida that were hard-hit when the housing bubble burst, and a Republican should have the traditional mild advantage in special elections.</p> <p>Legendary comedian Jackie Mason is a fan of Edward Lynch: "He's a great humanitarian, even though he's not Jewish . . . He happens to be Hispanic, but he's crazy about Israel . . . His heart and soul are unbelievable, you would never know he's a Gentile."</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="425" height="344" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/G0LtYrC1tQQ&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/G0LtYrC1tQQ&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed> </object> </p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDRjNzA1Njc0ZWViZWViNzc1Y2QwZmY2ODcxZDNhMzg= Mon, 08 Feb 2010 12:14:38 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmRiZTJjMjM2NDA4MThiM2U2NjI2OGQ5ZDYwMDNjMDM= The <span mce_name="em" mce_style="font-style: italic;" style="font-style: italic;" class="Apple-style-span">New York Post</span> may have <a href="http://www.nypost.com/f/print/news/local/paranoid_gov_going_ballistic_u4Bz0MVg9VhHo6m2VbmQFM" mce_href="http://www.nypost.com/f/print/news/local/paranoid_gov_going_ballistic_u4Bz0MVg9VhHo6m2VbmQFM" target="_blank">the real story</a> on the bombshell about to erupt around New York governor David Paterson:</p><p></p> <blockquote> <p>Gov. Paterson is lashing out at top aides for the growing debacle surrounding what they consider a "corrupt" Aqueduct gambling deal decision -- and suggesting that they'll soon be fired, The Post has learned. "He's become paranoid. He sits gnashing his teeth, looking around for scapegoats among the people around him," said a source frequently in contact with Paterson. "He's lecturing them, launching into tirades, and he's demoralized the entire staff in the process."</p> </blockquote> <p>In this morning's Jolt, I noted the growing rumors that some big story is in the works that will force Paterson's resignation.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmRiZTJjMjM2NDA4MThiM2U2NjI2OGQ5ZDYwMDNjMDM= Mon, 08 Feb 2010 11:20:54 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmQwYzNkYTQ5MzMyNDljMjU0ZTU5OTZhMzc3OTYwMDc= Think about how much goodwill would have been generated if the president or Commerce Secretary Gary Locke had said last week, <em>"These are not ordinary times; we're running a $1.6 trillion deficit. As much as we would like to spend $2.5 million on an ad promoting the census during the Super Bowl, we just can't justify the cost at this time."</em></p> <p>Instead it's <a href="http://hotair.com/archives/2010/02/08/your-tax-dollars-at-work-the-2-5-million-census-ad/" target="_blank">full-speed ahead</a> on even the most extravagant government spending, and we get to see Ed Begley Jr. doing a schtick that would have been cut before the dress rehearsal on <em>Saturday Night Live</em>. I know the man's an environmentalist; I didn't know he recycled his performances as well. Putting it in terms he can understand, this whole idea is long past due for the compost heap, Ed.</p> <p>Obama, and many around him, seem oblivious to how public attitudes towards spending get formed. Yes, the federal government spends its money on lots of worthwhile endeavors. (Just not <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle_Endeavour" target="_blank"><em>Endeavour</em></a> anymore.) Yup, we need tanks, we need planes, we need the FBI, we need air-traffic control, we need the Forest Service to watch for fires, etc. But the average voter knows that in addition to all the necessary stuff, there's a lot of waste hidden in there. It could be a particularly odious earmark -- think of how often McCain cited the bear DNA project -- or mohair subsidies, or $4 million for "<a href="http://councilfor.cagw.org/site/PageServer?pagename=reports_pigbook2009" target="_blank">wood utilization research</a>" or <a href="http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=123472" target="_blank">$100,000 worth of food and booze on congressional trips abroad</a> or whatever bit of federal spending you find most outrageous. The more of these examples of waste that they see, the more they suspect that the whole federal budget is a scam and that the important stuff gets shortchanged so that our governing class can fleece the Treasury.</p> <p>The decision to spend $2.5 million on a silly census ad is a remarkably damaging self-inflected wound, and I'm not sure anyone in the Obama administration grasps that . . .</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmQwYzNkYTQ5MzMyNDljMjU0ZTU5OTZhMzc3OTYwMDc= Mon, 08 Feb 2010 10:48:44 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjM1MmNmZjVhMjhiZGUwOWU2MDdhNGE3Y2FjODM4N2I= Amusing that Markos Moulitsas, the creator of Daily Kos, who is well-known for cheering the death of U.S. contractors in Iraq -- <a href="http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110004904" target="_blank">"screw them"</a> -- is <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/2/2/832988/-The-2010-Comprehensive-Daily-Kos-Research-2000-Poll-of-Self-Identified-Republicans" target="_blank">writing a book that</a> "catalogues the ways in which modern-day conservatives share the same agenda as radical jihadists in the Islamic world."</p> <p>Well . . . don't the radical jihadists cheer the deaths of Americans in Iraq?</p> <p>I know, I know, it's not a fair comparison. I'm sure that when the jihadists denounce "mercenaries," they spell the word correctly.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjM1MmNmZjVhMjhiZGUwOWU2MDdhNGE3Y2FjODM4N2I= Mon, 08 Feb 2010 10:47:26 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MGNhNDEwMTAxNTczNDY3MzU4NjQ3NGUwMGQzNDFlY2U= In Ohio, Republican Rob Portman leads both potential Democratic rivals for the Senate seat by 4 percentage points in <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/ohio/toplines/toplines_ohio_senate_february_5_6_2010" target="_blank">Rasmussen's latest</a>. This is relatively good news for Democrats. Still, the last time <a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/oh/10-oh-sen-ge-pvb.php" target="_blank">either</a> <a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/oh/-10-oh-sen-ge-pvf.php" target="_blank">Democrat</a> led in a head-to-head matchup was September.</p> <p>Their primary is May 4.</p> <p>Money isn't everything, but Portman's in a much <a href="http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2010/02/brunner_attracts_small_donors.html" target="_blank">more comfortable spot in this area</a>. He has about $6 million cash on hand, Lee Fisher has $1.5 million, and Jennifer Brunner ended the year with just $60,860 in the bank.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MGNhNDEwMTAxNTczNDY3MzU4NjQ3NGUwMGQzNDFlY2U= Mon, 08 Feb 2010 10:13:48 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmI5NzI1ZWZiZGQ0NTM5MWQ5NjI5MjNlM2I0NzRmZTU= Last week I wrote, "Whoever is challenging Patrick Kennedy had better get David Gergen in town to moderate a debate." That "whoever" is <a href="http://www.johnloughlin.org/" target="_blank">state representative John Loughlin</a>.</p> <p>Now a Rhode Island television station's poll shows that Kennedy is looking surprisingly vulnerable:</p> <blockquote> <p><a href="http://www.wpri.com/generic/news/politics/local_politics/campaign-2010-eyewitness-news-poll-1st-congressional-kennedy-" target="_self">The poll</a> shows 31 percent of those interviewed said they would “consider another” candidate and 28 percent said they would “vote to replace” Kennedy. Those who would re-elect the eight-term Congressman came in at 35 percent. Five percent weren’t sure.</p> </blockquote> <p>A caveat: "The poll, conducted by Fleming & Associates for WPRI-12, interviewed 250 registered voters in Kennedy’s district and comes with a 6.2 percent margin of error." That's a bit bigger than I prefer. Interestingly, they polled <a href="http://www.wpri.com/generic/news/politics/local_politics/campaign_2010_eyewitness-news-poll-patrick-kennedy" target="_self">Kennedy’s numbers</a> statewide (Rhode Island has only two districts) and found that across the state, a mere 35 percent give Kennedy a favorable rating, with a 62 percent unfavorable rating; in his own district he has a 42 percent favorable and 56 percent unfavorable.</p> <p>Kennedy's district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13, and Obama carried 65 percent of the vote in this district in 2008. It's tough sledding for Republicans, but if the Kennedy name isn't carrying the same weight as it used to in Massachusetts, we can only wonder how effective it will be this year for a lawmaker who's <a href="http://wbztv.com/local/Congressman.Patrick.Kennedy.2.579341.html" target="_blank">a lot tougher on Capitol Hill security barriers</a> than he is on, say, runaway spending.</p> <p>John Loughlin has some Scott Brownian aspects in his background: he was in the Army Reserves from January 1978 to November 2004, earning the rank of lieutenant colonel; <span style="new roman,times;">saw duty in Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1995 and 1996; is a </span>former public-affairs officer at NASA; runs a television production company . . . and spent a few years doing stand-up comedy. So unlike Kennedy, his remarks on the campaign trail will be <em>intentionally </em>funny.</p> <p>I suppose there's always a chance that Kennedy could rehabilitate his image, but one wonders if voters will be comfortable with the same representation they have had since 1994, the distilled essence of Kennedy liberalism, at a time when the nation faces so many serious and sobering issues.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmI5NzI1ZWZiZGQ0NTM5MWQ5NjI5MjNlM2I0NzRmZTU= Mon, 08 Feb 2010 10:00:02 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGExYWM5MTFhNzJhNzViMzFmZDcxZTJmNWY4ZjRlMWE= I credit this ad, run during the Super Bowl in Michigan, for originality: Republican Rick Snyder is running for governor as "One Tough Nerd."</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="480" height="295" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/_ro5iGShcV4&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="480" height="295" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/_ro5iGShcV4&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></embed> </object> </p> <p style="text-align: left;">Pretty good as an introductory ad. I'm sure he's a tough nerd; the question is, is he tough enough to take on the Demonsheep?</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGExYWM5MTFhNzJhNzViMzFmZDcxZTJmNWY4ZjRlMWE= Mon, 08 Feb 2010 08:39:51 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWY3NzFiZDIwNTMyMGU3MjNlYjk2ZTdlMzI5ZWE3YTY= From this morning's edition of the Jolt:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">So is this year’s Mardi Gras going to be big or what?</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>So She’s Sorta Kinda Maybe Open to Running</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Sarah Palin can create headlines, and a conniption from Andrew Sullivan, just by clearing her throat. So<span>  </span>a statement that <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/02/07/palin-willing-obama/">appears to suggest she’s interested in running for president</a> in 2012 is, of course, huge.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">“Sarah Palin has President Obama in her sights, telling FoxNews.com she ‘would be willing’ to challenge him in the 2012 presidential race. The former Alaska governor, in an interview Saturday on the sidelines of the National Tea Party Convention in Nashville, said President Obama's ‘lack of experience’ has held him back his first year in office and that she would put her credentials up against his any day. ‘I would be willing to if I believe that it's right for the country,’ Palin said when asked if she would run for president in 2012.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">That’s not exactly a “yes.” In fact, it sounds like a bit of “I’m going to survey the field,” and if she doesn’t see anyone who can beat her or Obama, she’ll take the plunge.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">NRO’s Robert Costa <a href="http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmQyMDRiYjA4MDBlYjMxMGFjNTRiNzYyYjdkN2YzMTY=">summarizes her appearance</a> at the Tea Party Convention: “<span>Former Alaska Gov. <a href="http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmQyMDRiYjA4MDBlYjMxMGFjNTRiNzYyYjdkN2YzMTY=" target="_blank">Sarah Palin</a> blasted the Obama administration on Saturday night during her 45-minute keynote address at the inaugural national “tea party” convention in Nashville. Palin said the president must “stop lecturing and start listening” and questioned whether Obama’s 2008 campaign theme was succeeding: “How’s that hopey-changey stuff working out for you?” she asked, to cheers. “It’s time they stop blaming everyone else.” America is “ready for another revolution,” Palin said. The tea-party movement, she added, “is about the people” and “it’s a lot bigger than any charismatic guy with a teleprompter.” (Palin, interestingly, gave the speech without one.) The 2008 Republican vice-presidential nominee also urged the GOP “to absorb as much of the Tea Party as possible.” The Tea Party, she said, “is the future of politics.” It is “inspiring,” she said, “to see real people, not politicos, inside-the-beltway professionals, come out, stand up, and speak out for common-sense conservative principles.” In a sign of her support, Palin pledged to give her compensation from the appearance (reportedly $100,000) “right back to the cause.”</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Mark Tapscott </span><a href="http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/MarkTapscott/Saran-Palin-is-miles-ahead-of-every-other-polician-in-America-83751452.html#ixzz0euYjxFfp">is enthralled</a><span>: “</span>I believe Palin is miles ahead of every other national figure in understanding where the country has been in the last year and what the Tea Party movement means about the future course of American politics. That doesn't mean I think Palin is or even should be a candidate for president or any other elective office in 2012 or any other time. What it does mean is I believe Palin has a unique insight into the state of things and is moving systematically and intelligently in concert with that insight. Where that leads, nobody, including Palin, likely knows at this point.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Kleinheider <a href="http://politics.nashvillepost.com/2010/02/07/the-begining-of-the-end-sarah-palin-hijacks-the-tea-party-movement/">is not happy</a>: “The tea party movement is dead. The one I was familiar with anyway. Judson Phillips held it down and Sarah Palin drove a stake right through its heart live last night on C-Span in front of an unsuspecting audience. Sarah Palin didn’t give a tea party speech last night. She gave a partisan Republican address. It was a purely political speech designed to position her for a presidential run in 2012 or 2016. Period. She wasn’t there to celebrate the organic nature of a movement she had nothing to do with creating. She was there to co-opt the name and claim the brand as hers. And she did.”</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Glenn Reynolds sees something big at the Tea Party Convention, but it goes <a href="http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/OpEd-Contributor/Glenn-Reynolds-Tea-Party-Nashville-was-Americas-Third-Great-Awakening--83762647.html#ixzz0euUmnLx9">well beyond Palin</a>: “I attended this past weekend’s <a href="http://www.pjtv.com/?cmd=page&page-id=148">National Tea Party Convention</a> in Nashville, Tennessee, and I came away feeling that I had seen something important.  The Tea Party movement is part of something bigger:  America’s Third Great Awakening. <span>America’s prior Great Awakenings, in the 18th and 19th Centuries, were religious in nature. Unimpressed with self-serving, ossified, and often corrupt religious institutions, Americans responded with a bottom-up reassertion of faith, and independence.</span> <span>This time, it’s different.  It’s not America’s churches and seminaries that are in trouble:  It’s America’s politicians and parties.  They’ve grown corrupt, venal, and out-of-touch with the values, and the people, that they’re supposed to represent.  So the people, once again, are reasserting themselves.</span>” . . .</p> <p class="MsoNormal">I don’t know if Audi’s Super Bowl commercial, featuring a draconian and ruthless “Green Police” jailing citizens for making any choice that wasn’t green, will sell a lot of cars. But I’ll bet it sells a lot of copies of <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Liberal-Fascism-American-Mussolini-Politics/dp/0385511841">Liberal Fascism<span style="font-style: normal;"> by Jonah Goldberg</span></a></em>.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Every Mark Steyn column is awesome, but anytime a phrase that was born right here on Morning Jolt is featured and credited so prominently, <a href="http://article.nationalreview.com/424153/unsustainable/mark-steyn">it’s doubly awesome</a>: “Since Obama’s mispronunciation is a pithier summation of the State of the Union than any of the dreary 90-minute sludge he paid his speechwriters for, let us consider it: Is America a Corpseman walking? Well, we’re getting there. <span style="font-variant: small-caps;" lang="EN">National Review</span>’s Jim Geraghty sums up Obama’s America thus: 'Unsustainable is the new normal.' Indeed. The other day, Douglas Elmendorf, director of the Congressional<span>  </span>Budget Office, described current deficits as 'unsustainable.' So let’s make them even more so.”</p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWY3NzFiZDIwNTMyMGU3MjNlYjk2ZTdlMzI5ZWE3YTY= Mon, 08 Feb 2010 07:25:25 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDhhYTEzMmVhMzZhMDdkNDE2YmZhYzQ1MzI4ZDI5NWI= <p class="MsoNormal">With Illinois’s primaries settled -- well, <a href="http://www.wbez.org/Content.aspx?audioID=39852" target="_blank">sort of</a> -- the next big one on the calendar is less than a month away, March 2, in Texas.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Oh, how I dread covering this primary, and how I look forward to its completion. For the better part of a year now, I’ve gotten daily e-mails from the campaigns of Gov. Rick Perry and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, each one laying out some new outrage perpetrated by the other. Everything is bigger in Texas, including the amount of hyperbole used in press releases.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Most politicians are happy to govern a state for eight years, but <a href="http://www.rickperry.org/">Rick Perry</a> has governed Texas since December 2000 and is aiming for another four years. In Perry’s favor at the moment is that Texas’s economy has performed <a href="http://business.theatlantic.com/2009/03/texas_and_the_sunbelt_economic_model.php">significantly better than the national average during this recession</a>. The cover of <em>The Economist</em> <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/capitolalertlatest/economist.jpg">portrayed the state as the anti-California</a>, economically resilient where the Golden State has cracked and weakened in recent years. Still, Perry has made his share of vexing decisions. Back in 2007, Perry <span class="cxnshared">issued an executive order to require schoolgirls to be vaccinated against the human papillomavirus</span><span class="articlecontent">, or HPV, that cause most cases of cervical cancer and genital warts. Regardless of the vaccine’s value, quite a few Texas parents found the mandate to be a troubling overreach of government authority, and t</span><span class="cxnshared">hree months later, he accepted a law that reversed his mandate.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://texans.forkay.com/">Kay Bailey Hutchison</a> earned quite a bit of Republican respect during her years in the Senate, and her bid for the governor’s mansion is endorsed by a slew of big GOP names: former president George H. W. Bush, former vice president Dick Cheney, former secretary of state James A. Baker III, and former House majority leader Dick Armey. But the mood in the state, mirroring that in many other parts of the nation, has forced her to run a different campaign than planned. As the <em>Houston Chronicle</em> <a href="http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/6849951.html">put it</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">Allies say Hutchison sees her long-planned race for governor -- postponed for four years to allow Perry to run unopposed in the 2006 primary -- as the culmination of a distinguished political career. Instead, amid a national anti-Washington frenzy, the senator so skilled at bringing home the bacon has become mired in a tit-for-tat among three conservative Republicans in a contentious primary.</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">Finally, there’s a third candidate on the Republican side, <a href="http://www.medinafortexas.com/">Debra Medina</a>, former Wharton County Republican party chair. She’s emphasizing that she’s not a politician, not rich, and that the state needs a governor who will ensure “the average Texan is represented.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">There hasn’t been a ton of polling of this race, but in the polls that have been conducted, Perry <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/tx/texas_governor_republican_primary-1082.html">leads fairly comfortably</a>, but not by enough so that we could say he’s got this race in the bag. Intriguingly, in a race with two of the biggest names in Texas politics, Medina is inching up to the low to mid teens.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">(There's an interesting wrinkle that if no candidate gets a majority, there's a runoff. So the first round might just be the elimination round for Medina, with the runoff being the expected "clash of the titans.")</p> <p class="MsoNormal">The winner will almost certainly take on Houston mayor Bill White on the Democratic side. Democrats think that if the GOP primary is bloody enough, they have a shot at winning a governorship that has eluded them since some obscure baseball-team owner beat Ann Richards in 1994. A recent Rasmussen Reports poll showed both Hutchison and Perry defeating White; Perry led 50 percent to White's 40 percent; Hutchison led 52 percent to 37 percent.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">At some point, Hutchison is expected to resign her Senate seat; despite the occasional speculation to the contrary, the <a href="http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/01/hutchison-still-resigning-rega.html">official line</a> is that she “intends to leave the Senate once the fights over federal health care and cap-and-trade environmental policy are settled.”<span>  </span>Secretary of State <a href="http://www.rogerforsenate.com/meet_roger/">Roger Williams</a> is aiming to be her replacement, as are Railroad Commissioners <strong><a href="http://www.jonesfortexas.com/"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Elizabeth Ames Jones</span></a> </strong>and <span><a href="http://www.williamsfortexas.com/">Michael Williams</a></span> and state senator <span><a href="http://www.shapiroexplore.com/">Florence Shapiro</a>. (I foresee confusion over bumper stickers that say, “Vote for Williams.”)</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">The likely Democratic opponent is former state comptroller <span><a href="http://www.johnsharp.com/">John Sharp</a></span>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDhhYTEzMmVhMzZhMDdkNDE2YmZhYzQ1MzI4ZDI5NWI= Fri, 05 Feb 2010 15:08:53 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzY4ZmI4MDZiMTEwNzdhZWExOGVhNjYyMWNlYzhhMDA= <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">Recently GOP California gubernatorial candidate Steve Poizner <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWIwYTNlNjlhZTZlYjgxOWJkNDQ5NGM3YWQxMDNlZjU=" target="_blank"><span>called the FBI</span></a> over routine backroom comments by Mike Murphy, an aide to his rival, Meg Whitman.<br /><br />Now Poizner's campaign is taking issue with a line in Whitman's new ad, in which the former eBay CEO says “the state is in the worst shape that I’ve seen in the 30 years that I have lived in California.” <a href="http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/california-politics/2010/02/whitman-tv-ad-fudges-on-how-long-shes-lived-in-state.html?tr=y&auid=5906818" target="_blank"><span>The gist</span></a>: "Although the former EBay chief first moved to California nearly 30 years ago, in 1981, she has not lived in the state continuously since then."<br /><br />I think this is making a mountain out of a molehill, but I'll let readers draw their own conclusions. Here's the Poizner release on this controversy:</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></span></p> <div> <p> <div><strong>For Immediate Release</strong></div> <div><strong>February 5, 2010</strong></div> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><strong><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> </span></strong></p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><strong><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">Meg Whitman Caught Stretching The Facts In TV Ad<br /><br /><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Media Picks Up On Whitman's Inaccurate TV Ad:</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> <br /><strong><br />Whitman "Immediately Hit A Bump By Misstating" How Long She Has Lived In California.</strong> "Republican Meg Whitman debuted her first television ad Thursday in her campaign for California governor, but she immediately hit a bump by misstating in the minute-long spot how long she's lived in the Golden State." (Jack Chang and Andrew McIntosh, "Whitman Ad Inflates Her Time  In California," <em>Sacramento Bee</em>, 2/5/10)<br /><strong><span><br /><a href="http://www.kintera.org/TR.asp?a=hnKIIMMvHhLKL0I&s=mwJZJfN3JoI7LpN5KwH&m=hfLIKUOAJfJVE" target="_blank"><span>Watch Whitman's Inaccurate Statement</span></a> </span></strong><span><br /></span><strong><br />Although Whitman Said In Her Ad, "Let's Say What We Mean, Mean What We Say," She Got "The One Figure She Cites In The Ad" Wrong.</strong> "Meg Whitman's first television ad hits the airwaves today — a 60-second spot in which she asserts: 'Let's say what we mean, mean what we say.' But the one figure she cites in the ad is, well, wrong." (Ken McLaughlin, "Fuzzy Math? Meg Whitman 's First TV Commercial Exaggerates Her California Residency," <em>The</em> [San Jose] <em>Mercury News</em>, 2/4/10) <br /><strong><span><br />The Sacramento Bee Found Through Public Records That Whitman Has Lived In The State "Well Short Of Three Decades."</span></strong><span> "Public property and corporate records and business biographies indicate Whitman has lived in the state well short of three decades. Whitman's campaign could not provide a detailed account of her time in the state on Thursday. The Bee was able to verify roughly 23 years of residency during her business career." (Jack Chang and Andrew McIntosh, "Whitman Ad Inflates Her Time  In California," <em>Sacramento Bee</em>, 2/5/10) <br /><br /><strong>The [San Jose] Mercury News Found That Whitman Has Lived In California For "Actually Closer To Two Decades."</strong> "But quick checks of her biography in Marquis Who's Who and other authoritative sources show it's actually closer to two decades. In fact, Whitman told Lesley Stahl in a 2008 interview on the women's site wowOwow.com that she's 'lived in California for nearly 20 years.'" (Ken McLaughlin, "Fuzzy Math? Meg Whitman's  First TV Commercial Exaggerates Her California Residency," <em>The</em> [San Jose] <em>Mercury News</em>, 2/4/10) <br /></span><strong><br />For Inexplicable Reasons, The Whitman Campaign Declined To Specify When Whitman Moved Out Of California.</strong> "News reports have said she moved in 1992. The Whitman campaign declined to specify when she moved out of state." (Shane Goldmacher, "Meg Whitman TV Ad Fudges On How Long She’s Lived In State," <em>Los Angeles Times</em>' "PolitiCal" Blog, <a href="http://www.kintera.org/TR.asp?a=hnJIKMNuEcKIK2L&s=mwJZJfN3JoI7LpN5KwH&m=hfLIKUOAJfJVE" target="_blank"><span>latimesblogs.latimes.com</span></a>, 2/4/10)<br /><strong><br />NOTE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA: Whitman Told The Press In 1995 That Massachusetts Was A Better Place To Raise Her Family Than Southern California.</strong> "'It was the right thing to do for our family ... a better place to raise the boys' than Southern California, she told the Detroit Free Press in 1995 about the move to Massachusetts." (Jack Chang and Andrew McIntosh, "Whitman Ad Inflates Her Time  In California," <em>Sacramento Bee</em>, 2/5/10) <br /><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br />Various Media Outlets Pick Up On Whitman's Distortion:</span></strong> <br /><strong><em><br />Sacramento Bee</em>: "Whitman Ad Inflates Her Time In California."</strong> (Jack Chang and Andrew McIntosh, "Whitman Ad Inflates Her Time  In California," <em>Sacramento Bee</em>, 2/5/10) <br /><strong><em><br />The</em> [San Jose] <em>Mercury News</em>: "Fuzzy Math? Meg Whitman's First TV Commercial Exaggerates Her California Residency."</strong> (Ken McLaughlin, "Fuzzy Math? Meg Whitman's  First TV Commercial Exaggerates Her California Residency," <em>The</em> [San Jose]<em> Mercury News</em>, 2/4/10) <br /><strong><em><br />Los Angeles Times</em>' "PolitiCal" Blog: "Meg Whitman TV Ad Fudges On How Long She’s Lived In State."</strong> (Shane Goldmacher, "Meg Whitman TV Ad Fudges On How Long She’s Lived In State,"<em> Los Angeles Times</em>' "PolitiCal" Blog, <a href="http://www.kintera.org/TR.asp?a=hnJIKMNuEeKIK0L&s=mwJZJfN3JoI7LpN5KwH&m=hfLIKUOAJfJVE" target="_blank"><span>latimesblogs.latimes.com</span></a>, 2/4/10)</span></p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif';">. . . Somebody really ought to call the FBI over this, don't you think?</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><strong><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></strong></span></p> </div><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzY4ZmI4MDZiMTEwNzdhZWExOGVhNjYyMWNlYzhhMDA= Fri, 05 Feb 2010 13:46:18 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTIxZjY3ZDc3NTk1NjljZTQ2NTU3MWQwZDBiZmFkZDY= A reader sends in a photo of the way their local television news identified the newest member of the U.S. Senate, wondering if some media outlets just ran out of the letter "R" to identify lawmakers.</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www2.nationalreview.com/dest/2010/02/08/8beb55f473842ccda430c43b977bb4a8.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="375" /></p> <p>Look, if calling Scott Brown a Democrat helps these guys cope with the loss of the supermajority, let's let the healing process continue . . .</p> <p>UPDATE: Another reader: "The irony of the (D) next to Scott Brown's name is that that station (WCVB, Channel 5) is where Scott Brown's wife, Gail Huff, is a reporter. They could just have asked her in the newsroom!"</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTIxZjY3ZDc3NTk1NjljZTQ2NTU3MWQwZDBiZmFkZDY= Fri, 05 Feb 2010 13:00:34 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZWNjYmQyOTRkOTVjNTg5YTE3MzkwM2ZlOTE5MDY2OWM= Here's the number that jumped out at me in the <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm" target="_blank">new unemployment numbers</a>: There were 1.1 million discouraged workers in January. That number had been 929,000 in December.</p> <p>Earlier in the week, I made a short video, noting the rise in these "discouraged workers" who don't show up in the official unemployment rate:</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="425" height="344" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/9mqVCctaBK4&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/9mqVCctaBK4&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></embed> </object> </p> <p style="text-align: left;">I'm giving the administration a smidgen of credit for not breaking out the party hats because the unemployment rate dropped from 10 percent to 9.7 percent.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZWNjYmQyOTRkOTVjNTg5YTE3MzkwM2ZlOTE5MDY2OWM= Fri, 05 Feb 2010 09:11:52 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzQ5NTI3ZDc4YzcwZGUyOTFhY2JlNTMyZjcxOWUwMzU= From this <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/newsletters" target="_blank">Morning's Jolt</a>, making its way to you through this system of tubes we call the Internet:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>A White House Rallying Cry of . . . ‘Surrender’?</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Some very strange messages are coming from the president himself on health care. At a DNC fundraiser Thursday night, <a href="http://hotair.com/archives/2010/02/04/obama-hints-to-dems-if-you-dont-pass-obamacare-you-deserve-to-lose-the-midterms/">he said</a>, “If Congress decides we’re not going to do it, even after all the facts are laid out, all the options are clear, <strong><span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-weight: normal;">then the American people can make a judgment as to whether this Congress has done the right thing for them or not</span></strong>.” Well, polls say not passing this legislative monstrosity is indeed the right thing, but putting that aside, that’s quite a different message than, “we must pass this,” isn’t it? Put another way, <em>“My signature proposal that I spent a year working on might go down in flames, and we’ll have to see how the voters feel about that.”</em></p> <p class="MsoNormal">It comes on the heels of this report from <a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0210/32561.html#ixzz0edE19Ay7">Politico</a>: “Sen. Al Franken ripped into White House senior adviser David Axelrod this week during a tense, closed-door session with Senate <a href="http://topics.politico.com/index.cfm/topic/democrats" target="_blank">Democrats</a>.” Apparently Franken is tiring of being told to pass a bill without any hint of whether the Obama administration prefers the House bill, the Senate bill, a hybrid, or what.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">One Senate Democrat who’s pretty representative of the lefties is claiming to see the white flag: “"The president was weighing in pretty heavily on the discussions between the House and Senate before the Massachusetts special [Senate] election," Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) told <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/04/obamas-engagement-on-heal_n_449168.html">Huffington Post</a>. "It's dried up since."</p> <p class="MsoNormal">If you see Sen. Jim DeMint, start calling him Wellington since the health care bill is starting to look<span> </span>a lot like Waterloo after all.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Jen Rubin’s <a href="http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/rubin/231361">sense of what’s going on</a>: “</span>Obama isn’t known for delving into details of legislation, so he might well be out of ideas and interest in the finer points of what was to be his signature issue. But it is also possible that the White House has figured out that ObamaCare is a loser with the general electorate. In that case, if Obama is to stabilize his own approval ratings, it would be better for the country to avoid more uproar over a hugely unpopular bill. Not giving direction to the Reid-Pelosi duo is tantamount to killing the bill. Whichever theory is right, the result is the same. We won’t see anything passed approximating the massive ObamaCare bill. In the end, that’s a good thing for the country and probably for incumbents, who in their heart of hearts have probably always understood that you can’t pass a bill on a strict party line vote that 70 percent of the country hates and expect to “sell it” to them later.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">A minor quibble -- I’d rather not be the Democratic incumbent who has to offer the defense, “Yes, I did vote for that kidney stone of a bill, the one that had all of you out there forming angry mob and swarming my town hall meetings last summer, but everybody chill out, because the bill didn’t pass anyway.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://hotair.com/archives/2010/02/04/obama-hints-to-dems-if-you-dont-pass-obamacare-you-deserve-to-lose-the-midterms/">Allahpundit</a>: “Obama’s [tush] isn’t on the line in November; what does he have to lose by twisting arms in the senior chamber to whatever extent he can to pass this thing? Or is it more a case of him realizing that with the 60th vote gone and defeats in Jersey, Virginia, and Massachusetts on his record, he really has no more leverage available to use?”</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>The delightfully profane <a href="http://dennisthepeasant.typepad.com/dennis_the_peasant/2010/02/straight-from-the-gee-ya-think-file.html">Dennis the Peasant</a>: “</span>Now I'd be the last person in the blogosphere to accuse progressives of being a bunch of [the term Rahm Emanuel used that offended Sarah Palin], but just where have you folks been, and what have you been smoking? Barack Obama isn't going to champion health care reform with the public and he certainly isn't going to fight for health care reform in the halls of Congress. That's hard work which requires focus, discipline, and fortitude. That just isn't Bambi's style . . . Hey, always remember: You got what you wanted. Enjoy.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Mmm. My Schadenfreude tastes like bratwurst!</p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzQ5NTI3ZDc4YzcwZGUyOTFhY2JlNTMyZjcxOWUwMzU= Fri, 05 Feb 2010 07:28:54 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjBmZTA4MmRmZjM2Y2I2NGZiZWVhZmM4NGU1ZmJlZjM= There are certain races that slide from my attention because I strongly suspect the Republican candidate is doing fine, and a GOP seat is going to stay in GOP hands. There's been a lot of discussion of the Florida Senate race, particularly the GOP primary, but less about the governor's race.</p> <p>McLaughlin & Associates just <a href="http://www.mclaughlinonline.com/6?article=24" target="_blank">announced</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>[Republican] Bill McCollum begins the year with a decisive double-digit lead over [Democrat] Alex Sink for Governor of Florida. In our most recent poll, Bill McCollum leads 41 percent to 30 percent with an 11 point advantage over Alex Sink.</p> </blockquote> <p>But this is in line with <a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/fl/10-fl-gov-ge-mcvs.php" target="_blank">most polls conducted since the year began</a> . . .</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjBmZTA4MmRmZjM2Y2I2NGZiZWVhZmM4NGU1ZmJlZjM= Thu, 04 Feb 2010 17:32:58 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzFmMWRlN2M3ZTNiZjY4ODU5YWQ2YzQwNDZmNzE0YzM= The campaign of Bobby Schilling, an aspiring Republican congressman from Illinois's 17th congressional district, points to <a href="http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs090/1102600608342/archive/1103001977309.html" target="_blank">an interesting indicator from Tuesday</a>. With neither Schilling nor incumbent Democrat Phil Hare facing any serious primary challenge, the vote totals in the district were <span style="color: #000000; ,Helvetica,sans-serif; -small;"><span style="color: #000000; ,Helvetica,sans-serif; -small;">32,496 votes for Hare  in the Democratic primary and 31,645 votes for Schilling in the Republican primary. Pretty darn close.<br /><br /></span></span><span style="color: #000000; ,Helvetica,sans-serif; -small;"><span style="color: #000000; ,Helvetica,sans-serif; -small;">Obviously, most of those folks came out to vote in the respective Democrat and GOP gubernatorial and senatorial primaries, which were competitive. But this is a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index score of D+3, where Obama carried 57 percent of the vote and John Kerry carried 51 percent. </span></span></p> <p><span style="color: #000000; ,Helvetica,sans-serif; -small;"><span style="color: #000000; ,Helvetica,sans-serif; -small;"><em>Barone's Almanac</em> writes:</span></span></p> <blockquote> <p><span style="color: #000000; ,Helvetica,sans-serif; -small;"><span style="color: #000000; ,Helvetica,sans-serif; -small;">It would be fairly easy to drive directly from any part of the 17th District to another, but only if you crossed over into the 18th or 19th districts. There is, of course, a political explanation for this weird configuration. By removing the Republican counties east and north of the Quad Cities during redistricting, the 17th was made more safely Democratic, and neighboring districts were reinforced for Republicans. Macoupin County is historically Democratic, and central Springfield and Decatur are solidly Democratic.</span></span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="color: #000000; ,Helvetica,sans-serif; -small;"><span style="color: #000000; ,Helvetica,sans-serif; -small;">Hare had no Republican opponent in 2008.</span></span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzFmMWRlN2M3ZTNiZjY4ODU5YWQ2YzQwNDZmNzE0YzM= Thu, 04 Feb 2010 16:23:33 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzYyMmEyYWFlNzAzZWZhNGMyMWJlOGI1NDM1NTA5YzU= If former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson was thinking seriously about running for Senate against Russ Feingold, I don't think he would be <a href="http://www.hedgefund.net/publicnews/default.aspx?story=10883" target="_blank">signing on as an adviser to a hedge fund</a>.</p> <p>A reader asked about Thompson the other day and my sense is, if you're a big-name Republican who hasn't signed on for a race yet, you're probably not going to jump in. It's not like the signs of a Republican wave appeared overnight. If a big-name Republican is thinking and thinking and thinking some more about running, it suggests he or she doesn't really want to run -- Thompson, Giuliani, Pataki, etc.</p> <p>Obviously, there are exceptions, but if a guy doesn't want to run, there's not much point in spending a lot of time and energy trying to persuade him to make a bid that his heart just isn't in . . .</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzYyMmEyYWFlNzAzZWZhNGMyMWJlOGI1NDM1NTA5YzU= Thu, 04 Feb 2010 16:20:18 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWQwMDNiNDQ0Y2VkNTM5ZTYyNTFjMjQwOGJhZTc0ZWE= A reader writes in, asking about a poll commissioned by the creator of Daily Kos, purporting to show that a large number of Republican voters have strange or way-out-of-the-mainstream views.</p> <p>Over at <em><a href="http://www.theatlanticwire.com/opinions/view/opinion/Skeptics-Sniff-at-Daily-Kos-Poll-2428" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a></em>, they note that Markos Moulitsas conducted the view with a clear agenda:</p> <blockquote> <p>"As I've mentioned before, I'm putting the finishing touches on my new book, <em>American Taliban</em>, which catalogues the ways in which modern-day conservatives share the same agenda as radical Jihadists in the Islamic world," he writes. "But I found myself making certain claims about Republicans that I didn't know if they could be backed up. So I thought, 'why don't we ask them directly?'"</p> </blockquote> <p>The pollster, Research 2000, is legitimate, but some are asking fair questions about whether the sample skews too Southern, too male, and too old to accurately represent Republicans as a whole.<br /><br />I'd note that pollsters generally agree that the number of self-identified Republicans shrank since, say, 2004, and while GOP candidates are doing better, you're not seeing a comeback among voters who want to identify as Republicans. In other words, a lot of conservatives left the GOP during Bush's second term, and would see themselves as independent, and not identify as a Republican if called by Research 2000. The folks who answered the phones for that pollster are very, very, very loyal Republicans.<br /><br />Beyond that, I don't find too many of these findings <em>that </em>surprising or even that troubling.</p> <p><em><span style=",sans-serif; "><span style="-small;">"63% of Republicans believe President Obama is a socialist."</span></span></em></p> <p>Will we soon see Obama reviewing parades of nukes and troops marching in an American Red Square? Nah, but Obama's goal pretty clearly is to bring America closer to a European, Social Democrat-style model, in which there is a large government role in almost every aspect of the economy and regulating citizens' lives from cradle (Head Start!) to grave (estate tax!) and a large amount of governmental energy is spent "spreading the wealth around," as he put it on the campaign trail. Calling him a socialist is inflammatory, but it's not necessarily inaccurate.</p> <p><em><span style=",sans-serif; "><span style="-small;">"53% believe Sarah Palin is more qualified to be president than Obama is</span></span>."</em></p> <div class="im">I'd argue it's a bit of a stretch by Palin fans, but not by much. The argument is essentially that two years of being governor is roughly as useful preparation as two years in the Senate, and that being a small-town mayor is better preparation than serving in the state legislature. I'm not sure I agree, but I don't think it's a wildly unjustifiable argument. The counter-argument is hindered by the fact that reality keeps biting Obama in the tush, suggesting he took office with unrealistic views on Iran diplomacy, efforts to get the Israelis and Palestinians to work together, the ability of massive stimulus bills to create jobs, the unity of the Democratic party on the details of health reform, and so on. Even if we agree that no one is ever truly prepared for the burdens and responsibilities of the office, Obama and Palin aren't terribly different in their amount of experience in public life.<br /><br /><em><span style=",sans-serif; "><span style="-small;">"39% believe Obama should be impeached."</span></span></em><br /></div> <div class="im"><br />I doubt many of those folks actually could point to a compelling case of a high crime or misdemeanor; this question strikes me as a stand-in for, "I don't like President Obama and want him to go away."<br /><br /><em>"</em><span style=",sans-serif; "><span style="-small;"><em>36% believe Obama wasn't born in the United States."<br /><br /></em></span></span>Perhaps the most troubling result, but I suspect again this is a "to hell with him" response. If you asked people to lay out a compelling case of a Kenyan birth and a secret plot to sneak him to Hawaii just to preserve his eligibility for the presidency 40-some years later, few could manage it. Again, I think this question and answer strike me as a stand-in of, "I don't trust President Obama about anything."</div> <p><span style=",sans-serif; "><span style="-small;"><em>"31% believe the president hates white people"</em><br /><br />Maybe these respondents are just "acting stupidly" -- obviously Obama doesn't hate William Ayers or Michael Pfleger -- but they could very well be drawing conclusions based on who gets cut slack from Obama (those who preach the unimaginable from the pulpit for 20 years) and those who are judged in an instant (Cambridge cops).</span></span></p> <p> <p class="im"><em>"24% believe the president wants the terrorists to win."</em></p> <p class="im">This probably is related to the "he's really a Muslim" conspiracy theory. It's nonsense, of course, but it's not that hard to imagine what facts lead one down that path. If you think using waterboarding and other interrogation methods are necessary, along with keeping Gitmo open, not prosecuting CIA personnel for interrogating al-Qaeda, not putting KSM on trial in Manhattan, etc., you probably look at Obama's methods and conclude he doesn't want to do what's necessary to win. And you probably think his endless tour of Muslim countries talking about America's flaws is just feeding into the other side's propaganda (it sure as heck hasn't calmed them, has it?). <br /><br />It's a short jump from "he isn't willing to do what's necessary to win the war" to "in his heart, he wants the other guys to win."</p> <p class="im"><em>"23% believe their state should secede from the union."</em></p> </p> <p>Troubling as it may seem, I interpret this sentiment as, "Go to hell, Washington," which is not that uncommon a view these days . . .</p> <p>UPDATE: A reader adds:</p> <blockquote> <p>You're missing my view of the survey. Yes, the answers some people gave were idiotic, BUT SO WERE THE QUESTIONS. If you are dumb enough to ask me if you think my home state of Washington should secede from the Union, I'd just say yes. The fact that you asked the question said a lot more about you then my answer says about me. The question basically says, "I think you're an ignorant, uneducated stooge. Are you?"  If you ask me that question, I'd just say, "Yah, sure, I'm ignorant and uneducated. Go away."<br /><br />Essentially, if you are going to ask me a dumb question, I'm going to give you a dumb answer.  <br /><br />Even if this isn't true, how many democrats would have said they thought Iraq was a "war for Bush to control Iraqi oil," or that Bush knew about 9/11 beforehand?</p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWQwMDNiNDQ0Y2VkNTM5ZTYyNTFjMjQwOGJhZTc0ZWE= Thu, 04 Feb 2010 15:33:35 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2FkMThjMzU1ZWQ5ZWMwNmVmZjJiYmQzM2RiNzMyNGQ= Republican California gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman's newest ad: "People are scared to death that California can not be fixed."</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="513" height="284" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/tzbyNs81EIk&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="513" height="284" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/tzbyNs81EIk&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></embed> </object> </p> <p>No, Meg. They're scared to death of Demonsheep!</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www2.nationalreview.com/dest/2010/02/04/74261ea5dc760aca3e931379f1c34699.jpg" alt="The demonsheep lurks, hunting Republican and Democrat alike." width="508" height="273" /> </p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2FkMThjMzU1ZWQ5ZWMwNmVmZjJiYmQzM2RiNzMyNGQ= Thu, 04 Feb 2010 14:21:36 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzUzOWNiNjkxYmE2MjExNzgzMmEzNjA1Nzg2ZjExYmY= So there will be a special election in Hawaii, <a href="http://www.starbulletin.com/news/20100202_Mayor_in_financial_lead_in_race_for_gov.html" target="_blank">except nobody's really sure of what day</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>After [Current congressman Neil] Abercrombie resigns, the state interim chief election officer, Scott Nago, will set the filing deadline and the date for the special election to fill the remainder of Abercrombie's term.</p> </blockquote> <p>(Djou mentions in the interview below that it has to occur within 90 days.) I suppose, on paper, a short race helps <a href="http://www.djou.com/" target="_blank">Republican Charles Djou</a>. He's kept pace in fundraising and is set to face off against two Democratic opponents in an unusual winner-takes-all special election. You figure Republicans also want as little time as possible for anyone to try to persuade one of the two Democrats -- state senate president Colleen Hanabusa and former U.S. Rep. Ed Case -- to drop out.</p> <p>On the other hand, if you're a Democrat, you're unnerved by the outlook for this election and want to put it off as much as possible, so you can spend weeks reminding voters that Djou is a Republican and Republicans are scary and un-Hawaiian, etc. But remember the health-care bill passed 220-215, which means Pelosi can't spare too many (at least on that issue), and she won't want a previously Democratic seat empty for long.</p> <p>UPDATE: A video of Djou with the always-wild guys at Red Eye can be <a href="http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=288392824249&ref=mf" target="_blank">seen here</a>. ("Since when does Hawaii have congressmen? When did that start?")</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzUzOWNiNjkxYmE2MjExNzgzMmEzNjA1Nzg2ZjExYmY= Thu, 04 Feb 2010 12:46:05 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2JmNWQxNzg0Mjg5MGEwYmEzOTQ4ZmI2MTUzYmVhODU= While the NRSC <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjRiMjhlNDNjNDA5M2I2NjM1MmQ1NTUzNDI2ZDgxODc=" target="_blank">subtly points out that the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois is a mob banker</a>, Mark Kirk's campaign is reminding voters of some unsavory recent history, and urging them to turn the page:</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="425" height="344" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/71saax9e2tY&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/71saax9e2tY&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed> </object> </p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2JmNWQxNzg0Mjg5MGEwYmEzOTQ4ZmI2MTUzYmVhODU= Thu, 04 Feb 2010 11:57:28 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjQxZjQ3MWI5ZTY2Nzc1ZmEwMGExZjZhOGE5MDUxZTQ= <a href="http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2010020401/" target="_blank">Larry Sabato's latest projection</a> for the 2010 election is for Republicans to gain 7 Senate seats, 27 House seats, and 6 governorships.</p> <p>A couple of Sabato predictions in races for governor worth noting:</p> <p>He predicts Jerry Brown will beat Meg Whitman in California. Quite possible, but I think Whitman's still got a decent chance of winning.</p> <p>He predicts GOP wins over incumbents (or the incumbent party) in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Pennsylvania. All very plausible.</p> <p>He has Robert Ehrlich jumping into the Maryland governor's race and beating Martin O'Malley. I'd love to see it, but the polls don't show that, at least not yet.</p> <p>His calculations also include a bunch of "toss up" gubernatorial contests in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Maine, Massachusetts (!) Minnesota, and Vermont.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjQxZjQ3MWI5ZTY2Nzc1ZmEwMGExZjZhOGE5MDUxZTQ= Thu, 04 Feb 2010 11:20:38 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTBhZmU3YjM0ZjM3MDRmMGIxZTFhZjQ1OTFjM2IxZDE= The night of February 3, 2010, will forever be remembered as the Night of the Demonsheep.</p> <p>It's based, of course, on this instantly infamous web ad for Carly Fiorina, who wishes to be the next senator from California and who aims to take new frontrunner Tom Campbell down a peg:</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="480" height="295" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/yo7HiQRM7BA&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="480" height="295" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/yo7HiQRM7BA&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></embed> </object> </p> <p>Last night I called the ad "genius," and a couple of folks weren't sure if it was sarcastic, so let me lay out a few more thoughts. On its most basic level, the ad is a mess -- even for a web-only ad, it is too long and too weird, and the arguments are all over the map. It begins by suggesting fiscal conservatives are sheep. The arguments about Campbell's budget proposal are fine, but it goes on for too long, and gives too much detail. While the <em>Exorcist</em> music and occasional flashes of ominous livestock help punctuate it all, it could have and should have been summaried quicker: "He supported spending too much, borrowing too much, and raising taxes too much, and look where it left us."<br /><br />(A lot of readers suspect it's actor Robert Davi doing the narration.)<br /><br />And then there's the "wolf in sheep's clothing" theme, which leads into the glowing-eyed cybernetic Demonsheep. (The initial, split-second appearance of Demonsheep from behind the tree actually made Mrs. Campaign Spot jump out of her chair and exclaim, "What is that?!?") Pick your pop-culture reference; the sheep is David Lynchian, Tim Burton-esque, or <a href="http://twitter.com/Kylne/statuses/8635990495" target="_blank">Cthulhu</a>; I like to think of it as life imitating <a href="http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e290/walski69/myAsylum%20Overflow/Larson-FarSide-WolfinSheepclothing.jpg" target="_blank">"The Far Side" cartoon</a>.</p> <p>On the other hand, the ad is genius in the sense that it instantly broke through a very noisy and crowded political environment, and got almost everyone who watched it to drop what they were doing and call their political junkie friends and say, "You have <em>got </em>to watch this." In less than 24 hours, it has gotten 80,000 views.</p> <p>Fiorina is behind, and she needs to shake up the race. After another day or two of mocking, it's possible that this ad and the brouhaha will spur California media to look at Campbell's record and see whether her criticisms are justified. And if that happens, then maybe he'll lose some ground, and she'll close the gap some. (On the other hand, the Chuck DeVore team has a <a href="http://www.demonsheep.org/demonsheep/" target="_blank">DemonSheep.org</a> site up already.)</p> <p>This is a Hail Mary of an ad, which means there's a very good chance that it won't work. But a lot of the "traditional" advertised approaches wouldn't have worked either, and would have just blended in with all the other ads in a busy election cycle. By comparison, ten years from now, if you hear the word, "demonsheep," you will probably start giggling and know exactly what it was.</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www2.nationalreview.com/dest/2010/02/04/74261ea5dc760aca3e931379f1c34699.jpg" alt="The Demonsheep, emerging from behind a tree." width="534" height="292" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><em>"Laugh while you can, puny human."</em></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTBhZmU3YjM0ZjM3MDRmMGIxZTFhZjQ1OTFjM2IxZDE= Thu, 04 Feb 2010 10:39:45 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzczYjlhNmVhNTBlMTJmZTM2ZDM2ODUwZTAyZTA3OGE= Boy, at first you couldn't find a Republican to run against those well-established House Democrats in Massachusetts, now <a href="http://www.wickedlocal.com/falmouth/features/x1090835361/Perry-to-run-for-Congress-House-seat-up-for-grabs" target="_blank">everybody's running in this Scott Brown world</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>State Representative Jeff Perry, R-Sandwich, will enter the race for the Republican nomination for U.S. Representative of the 10th Congressional District . . . Perry is just one of five Republicans who seek the congressional seat currently held by Democratic Congressman William Delahunt. They include Ray Kasperowicz of Cohasset, State Sen. Robert Hedlund of Weymouth, former State Treasurer Joseph Malone, and Donald Hussey of Hingham. Delahunt, who has served the 10th Congressional District since 1997, has not announced if he will seek reelection.</p> </blockquote> <p>I feel like I'm watching kindergartners play soccer, and they're all within three feet of the ball. Spread out! Spread out! Stop clumping together like that!</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzczYjlhNmVhNTBlMTJmZTM2ZDM2ODUwZTAyZTA3OGE= Thu, 04 Feb 2010 10:01:53 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Y2JiOTgzYTc3NGM3NDdlOWJmMzdkOWY0NTFiZWY2ZTA= <p class="MsoNormal">Good to see Illinois Democrats are shedding their scandal-ridden image <a href="http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/clout_st/2010/02/new-questions-in-2005-arrest-of-democratic-lieutenant-governor-nominee-.html">in the post-Blagojevich era</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">The newly minted Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor [in Illinois] said Wednesday he doesn’t think a 2005 domestic battery arrest should hurt him in the fall general election, although records in the case raise questions about his version of events. Scott Lee Cohen, a pawnbroker who was the surprise winner in the little-publicized contest among half a dozen candidates, had previously disclosed the arrest. He described it Wednesday as an argument with his drunken girlfriend and said he didn’t lay a hand on her, though she called the police and had him taken into custody.</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">I see some great slogans coming out of this: <a href="http://jasonplummer.com/" target="_blank">Republican Jason Plummer</a> for Lieutenant Governor: <em>Because the only thing he wants to slap around is the state's deficit.</em></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Y2JiOTgzYTc3NGM3NDdlOWJmMzdkOWY0NTFiZWY2ZTA= Thu, 04 Feb 2010 09:45:19 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjkyOTgxY2EwNDkyYmM2MWI2ZjMwZWFhM2IyNmRhOTU= From today's Jolt:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>He’s Talking, But We Would Prefer Him Singing </strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal">My preference was always to waterboard Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab until his lungs grew moldy, but I’m one of those knuckle-dragging insensitive types who finds flying in coach aggravating enough without some lonely Muslim engineering student working out his bonding issues through the use of high explosives. But the administration says that even though he was read his Miranda rights within 50 minutes of his arrest -- what, were trying to beat a pizza delivery? -- he’s now talking because of his family. (Ah. We’re threatening to waterboard the family. What? No, not them either?)</p> <p class="MsoNormal">The <em>Washington Post</em> <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/02/AR2010020203738.html?hpid=topnews">tells us</a>: “In recent days, two law enforcement sources said, Abdulmutallab has told authorities more about where he trained overseas and others he met there -- leads that the FBI has shared with other members of the U.S. intelligence community. Investigators are following up to corroborate the information.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Our old friend Byron York <a href="http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Administration-changes-story-on-Christmas-Day-bomber-83431262.html#ixzz0eVllhvTK">smells something</a>: “The reports represent a striking turnaround in the administration's position. Ever since the public learned that authorities had just 50 minutes to question Abdulmutallab before he was read his Miranda rights and refused to answer any further questions, the Obama administration has claimed that it had, during that brief interrogation, gotten all the information that was possible to be gained from Abdulmutallab. On Fox News Sunday January 24, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,583788,00.html">said</a> that "FBI interrogators believe they got valuable intelligence and were able to get all that they could out of him." When host Chris Wallace asked, "All they could?" Gibbs answered, "Yeah." On January 31, top White House adviser David Axelrod told Meet the Press that Abdulmutallab "has given very valuable information to the government about activities in Yemen and some of his experiences there." To emphasize the point, Axelrod said, "We have not lost anything as a result of how his case has been handled." So just a few days ago the Obama administration claimed that Abdulmutallab had given up everything he knows. Now, they claim he is giving them fresh, useful intelligence.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">The <em>Weekly Standard</em>’s Stephen Hayes <a href="http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/what-we-lost-while-abdulmutallab-clammed">is unimpressed</a>. “He started talking five weeks after the attack. Intelligence is perishable. The U.S. government passed on an opportunity to interrogate him at a time when his al Qaeda sponsors in Yemen probably thought he was incapable of talking. And the fact that he is cooperating now should not obscure the gross mishandling of the incident by the Obama administration.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Curt at Flopping Aces <a href="http://www.floppingaces.net/2010/02/03/more-cya-from-the-obama-white-house-christmas-day-bomber-now-talking-because-of-family/">is scoffing</a>: ‘You know what else is not likely? That we get a incompetent terrorist in our hands again. Do you think KSM or the other smart, dedicated, terrorists will fold because mom and pop ask him to? No . . . the Christmas Day Bomber is obviously nothing but a foot soldier and the brains behind him are the one’s we need to capture and interrogate. Actionable intel has an expiration date. The kind of intelligence we needed from this guy, ie. locations of his bosses and handlers, locations of his training, and so on, should of been extracted within hours of his capture. Now, his handlers, his recruiters, his training facilities are all gone because they know he is in our hands. This is all CYA for an Administration that is so inept it is dangerous.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">At NRO, Andy McCarthy says that Holder deserves a bit more credit than Obama for at least standing by his policy and making his views clear, while <a href="http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWViZTNmNzUxYTI1ZGM0ODY2MDEzMzUyNGJiMDUwOGU=">the president passes the buck</a>: “Then there's Obama — you know, the guy who actually has decision-making authority. (In the executive branch, all the power is reposed in the president. Everyone else, including the vice president and the attorney general, is just carrying our his policies.) What do we get from our president?  We get his already tired routine:  <em><span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">Some people say our criminal justice system is not up to the task of dealing with these terrorists.  Others say you must give every arrested person Miranda rights and treat them just like shoplifters. I reject this false choice between terrorism and shoplifting.”</span></em> Well, no, big guy, it's not a false choice. But it is a choice, it has to be made, and you have to make it. If you're going to use our criminal justice system because you think, as is, it is capable of safeguarding the country from terrorists, then, as the Attorney General argues, you have to give the terrorists <em><span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">Miranda</span></em> warnings and be accountable for the fact that you will lose at least five weeks of actionable intel against people who are tying to kill us. If you think the justice system doesn't work for this class of offenders, then you have to try another approach, as VP Cheney urges, and be prepared for the inevitability of caterwauling from the Left (knowing it will be considerably milder than what Cheney had to deal with). But one way or the other, you've got to decide.”</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">Sign up <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/newsletters" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjkyOTgxY2EwNDkyYmM2MWI2ZjMwZWFhM2IyNmRhOTU= Thu, 04 Feb 2010 09:34:14 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmNiNmI5NTVlYWU3YjU0NmQ5ZmU2ZmM1YjUyZWM5NmQ= <span style="new roman,times;">In California’s GOP Senate primary, Carly Fiorina released a web attack ad against Tom Campbell that is being called “<a href="http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2010/02/03/carly-fiorina-releases-rare-psychadelic-attack-ad/" target="_blank">psychedelic</a>.” I think it’s destined to be remembered as a classic. It combines what sounds like the soundtrack to “The Exorcist,” a narrator who sounds like he's imitating Morgan Freeman with the stratospheric dudgeon of Keith Olbermann’s “Special Comments,” and then the grand finale: evil, menacing, vaguely cybernetic sheep with glowing red eyes. Two minutes and thirty seconds into the video, you will be screaming, “What the hell is that?!?” and reaching for any available firearms.</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="480" height="295" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/yo7HiQRM7BA&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="480" height="295" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/yo7HiQRM7BA&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></embed> </object> </p> <p><span style="new roman,times;">Disaster? This ad is genius. If Tom Campbell's vision for California's future includes sheep like that, I want no part of him!</span></p> <p><span style="new roman,times;">UPDATE:</span></p> <p><em>"That sheep is out there. It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until . . . BAAAAH." </em></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="new roman,times;"><img src="http://www2.nationalreview.com/dest/2010/02/03/2e9bac036c340448dbe324559c1b7c5d.jpg" alt="The scariest sheep-thing you have ever seen." width="482" height="269" /><br /></span></p> <p><span style="new roman,times;"><br /></span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmNiNmI5NTVlYWU3YjU0NmQ5ZmU2ZmM1YjUyZWM5NmQ= Wed, 03 Feb 2010 18:02:24 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjQ1N2Y5OGIwN2I5OTYxMDM5Y2U1YjU5ZjgwMjFjZjg= If I <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2VhMjExYzRkN2UzZTkwMmIyMDVlYmE3NzkyZThmN2E=" target="_blank">didn't want to avoid offending Sarah Palin</a>, I would say that MSNBC anchor Dylan Ratigan is "bleeping retarded."</p> <p><span>Ratigan, moments ago:</span></p> <blockquote> <p><span>Dirty politics reared its ugly head in Illinois. Hours after the state treasurer, Alexei Giannoullias, won the Democratic Senate primary, that is an Italian name, "Giannoullias," excuse me. Republicans are comparing Giannoullias, an Italian name, to a character from "The Sopranos."</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span>You see this coming already, right? Giannoullias is Greek.</span></p> <p><span>But I guess all those swarthy Mediterranean types look the same from the MSNBC anchor desk, the <a href="http://michellemalkin.com/2009/11/23/the-indelible-whiteness-of-msnbc/" target="_blank">most overwhelmingly Caucasian demographic</a> this side of the burglars in the Broadview Security commericals.</span></p> <p><span>Never mind that the commercial bases its corruption charges on reports from the Associated Press, <em>Crain's Chicago Business</em>, the <em>Chicago Tribune</em>, the <em>State Journal Register</em>, and the <em>Chicago Sun-Times</em>.</span></p> <p><span>The ad, once again:</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="425" height="344" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/eocJHtBVLyI&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/eocJHtBVLyI&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed> </object> </p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjQ1N2Y5OGIwN2I5OTYxMDM5Y2U1YjU5ZjgwMjFjZjg= Wed, 03 Feb 2010 17:42:21 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2E4NWEwODBlMDg4NmY5OGI3MTRjN2E0NzI4ZmZiZGU= Dan Hynes, the former state controller who appears to have narrowly lost the Democratic gubernatorial primary, has done such an awesome job of opposition research on governor Patrick Quinn that the Republican Governors Association doesn't have to change a thing. No, really, their latest video is almost entirely recycled Hynes attack ads, a message that persuaded 49 percent of Democrats that they couldn't take another four years of Quinn:</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="560" height="340" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/HC30p634Opw&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /> <param name="allowfullscreen" value="true" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="560" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/HC30p634Opw&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowfullscreen="true"></embed> </object> </p> <p>I hope the RGA sends him a fruit basket or something.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2E4NWEwODBlMDg4NmY5OGI3MTRjN2E0NzI4ZmZiZGU= Wed, 03 Feb 2010 16:03:09 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTlhNGI3MzljMDEwNzQyYjEwMGUwOThiNWMwY2I5MDc= I concur with this reader's take on the down-to-the-wire Illinois gubernatorial primary:</p> <blockquote> <p><span><span style="-small;">I think there is one point worth mentioning in the Illinois governor race. If I'm Mark Kirk, I'm crossing my fingers hoping Bill Brady holds on. Downstate Republicans rarely get a candidate they can easily identify with in a statewide race. Dillard is a prototypical Illinois Republican, and Kirk is more Dillard than Brady. Kirk will need to do a lot of downstate outreach to win. Brady is someone that will bring these voters to the booth. He gives Kirk the same benefits that weeks of Palin visits would bring, without any of the side effects. I also think Brady, being from Bloomington, will be especially good for Kinzinger in the 11th, and really all the downstate house districts. </span></span></p> </blockquote> <p><span><span style="-small;">I'd just note that Dillard looked familiar, and I finally remembered where I had seen him before:</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="425" height="344" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/KTtUbzYDzB0&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/KTtUbzYDzB0&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></embed> </object> </p> <p style="text-align: left;">Somewhere, Florida governor Charlie Crist is saying, <em>"Come on! I just hugged the guy, and I'm getting hammered in my primary! This guy does an ad for Obama and he's still got a shot to win his GOP primary?"</em></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTlhNGI3MzljMDEwNzQyYjEwMGUwOThiNWMwY2I5MDc= Wed, 03 Feb 2010 15:47:14 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjRiMjhlNDNjNDA5M2I2NjM1MmQ1NTUzNDI2ZDgxODc= Wow. It's not often you see a national committee come out with an ad that says, "Our opponent is a mobster's banker," but the NRSC isn't holding back much on Alexi <span class="description">Giannoulias.</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="560" height="340" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/eocJHtBVLyI&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="560" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/eocJHtBVLyI&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></embed> </object> </p> <p>Welcome to the race, Alexi!</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjRiMjhlNDNjNDA5M2I2NjM1MmQ1NTUzNDI2ZDgxODc= Wed, 03 Feb 2010 15:26:04 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWVjZmFlOTNmZDVjNGE3MzkxOThjNzljMTcxMzE4YjQ= <p class="MsoNormal">Reader response to the Dan Coats interest in running against Evan Bayh in Indiana's Senate race is mixed.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">One Washington Republican who is watching the Senate races closely says:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Obviously this is very good news. Democrats were not expecting a race here. This speaks to the political environment we are in. For all his advantages, Bayh hasn't had a truly competitive race in years. Will be interesting to see how he handles a top tier challenger, especially after he was reportedly considering retirement not that long ago.</span></p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>This Republican notes that Cook Political Report promptly moved the Indiana race from “Solid Democratic” to “Lean Democratic,” and that the GOP now has eight legitimate pick-up opportunities, in North Dakota, Delaware, Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas, IIlinois, Pennsylvania, and Indiana. Winning control of the Senate requires some momentum in two states (at least) out of California, Connecticut, Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin, and New York. A challenge, but not impossible.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">The incontrovertible point is that when old senators who last sat in elected office 12 years ago are thinking of running for their old seats, it means word of this year’s GOP tidal wave has reached the retirement homes. Okay, that’s not entirely fair, as Coats is only 66; let’s just say word has reached Berlin (as Coats was U.S ambassador to Germany for much of George W. Bush’s first term). In other words, even if Coats doesn’t get the nomination, a guy who has every incentive to keep enjoying post-elected life sees vulnerability in Bayh.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>One reader is getting an uninspiring "Frank Lautenberg" vibe:</span></p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Dan Coats is a good conservative, but do we really need to dust off old senators (ala Mondale and that new jersey senior citizen) to beat these guys?  I know we'd be better of with a fresh young face -- with Pence out, don't know who that'd be though.</span></p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Yes, Coats is registered to vote in Virginia and is a registered lobbyist. (No word on whether he’s ever <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/13/nyregion/fordexcerpts.html?pagewanted=all"><span>landed a helicopter<span> </span>on Staten Island</span></a>.) Still, it will be interesting to see the Democrats argue that a man who represented the state in Congress for 18 years is somehow not a genuine Indianan.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Another reader is underwhelmed:</span></p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Sorry, I don't view this announcement with the same pleasure as you do. I remember being disgusted in 1998 when Coats decided to "do a Trible"* and not run for re-election to his Senate seat because he was sure Bayh would beat him. It is true that Bayh would probably have won anyway, but as an incumbent with no scandals hanging over him, Coats was the one person who might have held the seat for his party.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>You have been gently mocking those Democrats who have been retiring this year in face of a looming GOP wave and I don't see that it is any great reason to celebrate when one of our own who did exactly the same thing twelve years ago has now decided to share the light of his countenance with us once again now that the road seems easier for him.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>* This refers to the classic example of this, when in 1988, GOP Senator Paul Trible of Virginia retired (like Coats) after one term because then wildly-popular Governor Chuck Robb was going to run against him. Trible was even more egregious than Coats, however. After retiring ostensibly to "spend more time with my family" he ran for (and lost) the GOP nomination for governor the very next year.</span></p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>A reader across the river in Louisville, Kentucky, observes:</span></p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Indiana is not the state that voted Obama. It is the state that elected Pence. Bayh, for all his good qualities, comes across as nothing more than a Democrat vote. Only in times of Democrat despair, does he show his "moderate" stripes. He's never been a great voice for anything. There are plenty R's like that too.</span><span> </span><span>If things continue on this pace, Coats could win easily.</span></p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWVjZmFlOTNmZDVjNGE3MzkxOThjNzljMTcxMzE4YjQ= Wed, 03 Feb 2010 13:43:55 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjQyNDk2YTQ2NjczN2IxYTBjNzhjYmMzMDJhODUwOTQ= Man, everything is <a href="http://howeypolitics.com/index.asp" target="_blank">coming up roses for the NRSC</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p><span><span style=",Times New Roman,Times,Serif; color: #000000; -small;">Former U.S. Sen. Dan Coats will announce Wednesday he will challenge U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh.  In an exclusive statement to Howey Politics Indiana, Coats explained, “Throughout my life, I have been drawn to serving my country, starting as a young man in the Army, and then as a member of the House of Representatives, the United States Senate, and most recently as the U.S. Ambassador to Germany. After coming back from Germany I was content to return to the private sector.  But like many Hoosiers, I have become increasingly alarmed and frustrated about the direction of our country and the failure by leaders in Washington to listen to those they were elected to represent.  While Hoosier families have tightened their belts and sacrificed to make ends meet during these tough economic times, our elected officials in Washington continue to run up massive deficits, recklessly borrowing and spending record amounts of taxpayer money with no regard for the future generations of Americans who will inherit this staggering and ever-increasing debt."</span></span></p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjQyNDk2YTQ2NjczN2IxYTBjNzhjYmMzMDJhODUwOTQ= Wed, 03 Feb 2010 09:17:22 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2VhMjExYzRkN2UzZTkwMmIyMDVlYmE3NzkyZThmN2E= From today's <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/newsletters" target="_blank">Morning Jolt</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>But Sarah, Rahm Uses the F-Bomb The Way Other People Use, “Uh.”</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Sarah Palin wants Rahm Emanuel to be <a href="http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=278672843434">reassigned to a comfortable position under the bus</a>: “I would ask the president to show decency in this process by eliminating one member of that inner circle, Mr. Rahm Emanuel, and not allow Rahm’s continued indecent tactics to cloud efforts. Yes, Rahm is known for his caustic, crude references about those with whom he disagrees, but his recent tirade against participants in a strategy session was such a strong slap in many American faces that our president is doing himself a disservice by seeming to condone Rahm’s recent sick and offensive tactic.  The Obama Administration’s Chief of Staff scolded participants, calling them, “F---ing retarded,” according to several participants, as reported in the Wall Street Journal.  Just as we’d be appalled if any public figure of Rahm’s stature ever used the “N-word” or other such inappropriate language, Rahm’s slur on all God’s children with cognitive and developmental disabilities - and the people who love them - is unacceptable, and it’s heartbreaking.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">(Rahm did apologize. <a href="http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2010/02/rahm-apologizes-for-privately-calling-liberal-activists-retarded.html">To the head of Special Olympics</a>, not to the liberal activists.)</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Clifton B. at <a href="http://anotherblackconservative.blogspot.com/2010/02/sarah-palin-calls-for-rahm-emanuel-to.html">Another Black Conservative</a>: “I wonder will the liberals let it go or will they demand more?  At any rate, score another victory for the Sarah Palin.”</p> <p><span style=",helvetica,sans-serif;">James Richardson at <a href="http://www.redstate.com/jrichardson/2010/02/02/obama-emanuel-compete-for-most-insensitive-remark/">RedState</a>: “Emanuel’s apology was accepted, but Shriver was not the offendee; those present at the strategy meeting-the Democrats he called “f-ing retarded”-and all those living with the reality of intellectual disabilities were. We have long since exceeded our quota for apologia go-to guys. Still, Obama and Emanuel were intent nonetheless on creating yet another Democratic-sin absolving moral arbiter by offering a sham private apology to Shriver… By now, President Obama no doubt has Shriver on speed dial.”</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://twitter.com/DrewMTips/statuses/8559905893">DrewM</a>: “Palin wants Rahm fired for calling liberals 'retarded'? Really? Isn't truth a legitimate defense anymore?”</p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2VhMjExYzRkN2UzZTkwMmIyMDVlYmE3NzkyZThmN2E= Wed, 03 Feb 2010 08:52:57 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzYzMjNmNDBhMGE2MTM5MjliMjExNTIxMDVlYmQ4Y2Q= Meanwhile, in yesterday's non-Illinois primary, for the seat previously occupied by Robert Wexler in <a href="http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/palm-beach/fl-congress-special-primary-20100202,0,1505160.story" target="_blank">Florida</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Buoyed by strong support from Democratic leaders and elected officials, Ted Deutch declared victory barely two hours after the polls closed in Tuesday's special congressional primary. But the three-way Republican race remained a nail-biter well into Wednesday morning; and too close to call a winner among Joe Budd, Edward Lynch and Curt Price. Seven hours after the polls closed, the tally put Lynch ahead of Budd by just 37 votes. But discrepancies between the number of ballots cast and the number of people who signed in at a handful of Palm Beach County precincts forced a manual audit that continued past 2 a.m.</p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzYzMjNmNDBhMGE2MTM5MjliMjExNTIxMDVlYmQ4Y2Q= Wed, 03 Feb 2010 07:44:31 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGI3YmU1YzQxYjFiYWQ2MTE3YWUxOThjZTFjNzVjOTg= An Illinois reader notes that for all of the disappointment some conservatives have about Mark Kirk's relatively easy win in the Senate primary, conservatives did well down ticket.</p> <p>In the lieutenant governor primary, <a href="http://jasonplummer.com/" target="_blank">Jason Plummer</a> leads by about one percent: a Naval Reserve officer who used to work at the Heritage Foundation.<br /><br />In Illinois's 8th congressional district, "Tea Party insurgent" <a href="http://walshforcongress.com/" target="_blank">Joe Walsh</a>, who worked for the free-market Heartland Institute, wins a crowded primary.<br /><br />In the 10th district, <a href="http://www.doldforcongress.com/" target="_blank">Bob Dold</a>, an aide to former vice president Dan Quayle, won.<br /><br />In the 11th, one of my favorites, <a href="http://www.electadam.com/" target="_blank">Adam Kinzinger</a>, won his primary by a wide margin.<br /><br />In the 14th district, another political dynasty had a rough year. State senator <a href="http://hultgrenforcongress.com/" target="_blank">Randy Hultgren</a> beat Ethan Hastert, son of the former House speaker.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGI3YmU1YzQxYjFiYWQ2MTE3YWUxOThjZTFjNzVjOTg= Wed, 03 Feb 2010 07:42:15 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTRjY2E2MjhlNTFmMTVhYWZlNDljYjg1OWI5ZTQzZmE= Wow. Illinois's Senate races sorted out as expected: Mark Kirk wins the GOP nod, Alexi Giannoulias winning the Democratic nod (but by only about 5 percent over former Chicago inspector general David Hoffman).</p> <p>But in the governor's races, it's two <a href="http://elections.chicagotribune.com/results/" target="_blank">extremely tight races</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Bill Brady of Bloomington and Kirk Dillard of Hinsdale were within 1,500 votes of each other with 99 percent of the unofficial vote counted this morning. Each had 20 percent of the tally in a six-way contest.</p> <p>On the Democratic side, Gov. Pat Quinn declared himself the winner, even though Comptroller Dan Hynes had not conceded defeat. Hynes trailed by fewer than 6,000 votes as results trickled in.</p> </blockquote> <p>Recounts are expected.</p> <p>Turnout in the Democratic primary was about 900,000; turnout in the GOP primary was about 758,000.</p> <p>According to <a href="http://twitter.com/ppppolls/statuses/8584343480" target="_blank">Public Policy Polling</a>, in 2004, there were 600,000 more Democratic primary voters than GOP primary voters.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTRjY2E2MjhlNTFmMTVhYWZlNDljYjg1OWI5ZTQzZmE= Wed, 03 Feb 2010 07:16:03 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWIyYzZiYThkZjE0YzNhOGYxMmY2N2U1ZWUxNjQyYzY= In Illinois, polls close in about one hour.</p> <p>A reader objects to my assessment of the Senate race:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><em>"This is no Dede Scozzafava who was handed the nomination behind closed doors; if Kirk gets the nomination, he'll have won it the old-fashioned way, by getting Republicans to vote for him" </em></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Sorry Jim but I live in Chicago area and totally disagree. It was reported locally and in the national media that Kirk and the party leadership rigged the election in his favor. What happened was that Kirk heard rumors that popular conservative politicians might run against him. Kirk told the party leadership, and leaked to the media, that he would withdraw if he had competition. We were then told that Kirk hadn't tossed his hat in the ring, but would continue "negotiating" with party leadership that weekend.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Kirk eventually got what he wanted, and then formally declared: no experienced politician would run against him.</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">Hey, Kirk can make the threat, but it still takes everyone else -- the rest of the party and those popular conservative politicians -- to knuckle under for it to have an effect. I realize this is Chicago, but were guns really put to people's heads? Or did these conservative folks conclude they could live with Kirk as the party's nominee? Either way, Kirk still has to go out and win the primary.</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><em>> it's good that a well-funded candidate, lawyer <a href="http://www.patrickhughesforsenate.com/Home.aspx" target="_blank">Patrick Hughes</a></em></p> <p class="MsoNormal">What is your source for "well-funded"? The Chicago Tribune, which you linked to in that very same posting, said that Hughes never was able to raise much money.</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">According to <a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=ILS2&cycle=2010" target="_blank">OpenSecrets.org</a>, Patrick Hughes raised $514,693 (with about $250,000 self-financed) and spent $490,212. That's less than Kirk's $4.7 million raised and $1.6 million spent, but that's still a pretty hefty sum for a guy who's never held elective office and has never been formally involved in politics before this race. There are a lot of unknown conservative challengers who would give their left arm for a half million to spend on their race.</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">This is the same thing that conservatives face all through the party, primaries rigged against us and then we are told that we lost fair and square and must vote for the RINO in November.</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">I think we do a disservice when we casually toss around the word "rigged." The Iranian elections are <em>rigged</em>. Kirk went into this with the advantages of higher name ID, a better fundraising network, and the backing of the NRSC (the same one that's proving worthless for Charlie Crist). Those are advantages, not guarantees of victory.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWIyYzZiYThkZjE0YzNhOGYxMmY2N2U1ZWUxNjQyYzY= Tue, 02 Feb 2010 19:08:48 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTQ4NWM5M2VmNzQyNmVjOGI4MzI2MGNlNzU5Y2RhMGU= <p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><a href="http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2010/02/expanded-playing-field-126-gop-house-candidates-have-100kplus.html" target="_blank">This</a> might actually be the most signficant political news of the day:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">All told, 126 House Republican challengers -- that’s those running in open seats or against Democratic incumbents -- reported having at least $100,000 in their campaign accounts. Forty-two of those have at least $200,000, and 10 have at least $500,000.</p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">There’s some overlap in competitive primaries. But the numbers generally support the view voiced by Republicans that they expect to put between 80 and 90 Democratic-held seats in play. They need to pick up 40 seats this year to take back control of the House.</p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">And even candidates generally considered safe -- such as Rep. Patrick Kennedy, D-R.I., and Rep. David Wu, D-Ore. -- are likely to face well-funded challengers this year.</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Whoever is challenging Patrick Kennedy had better get David Gergen in town to moderate a debate.</p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Some of these totals are jaw-dropping. In Florida's 22nd congressional district, <a href="http://allenwestforcongress.com/" target="_blank">Allen West</a> has $707,150.50 cash-on-hand and no debt.</p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">In Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district, <a href="http://www.meehanforcongress.com/" target="_blank">Pat Meehan</a> has $694,207.14 on hand and a little over $5,000 in debt.</p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">In Maryland's 1st congressional district, <a href="http://www.andyharris.com/" target="_blank">Andy Harris</a> has $497,226.85 on hand and about $2,500 in debt.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTQ4NWM5M2VmNzQyNmVjOGI4MzI2MGNlNzU5Y2RhMGU= Tue, 02 Feb 2010 17:29:30 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2M1ZWU3ZWNhNmIyMWRkNTQ2OTZiMzFkODNhODhmYmQ= An Illinois reader contends I'm being too nice to GOP gubernatorial candidate <a href="http://www.adamforillinois.com/" target="_blank">Adam Andrzejewski</a> and underselling <a href="http://www.proft2010.com/" target="_blank">Dan Proft</a>. So, here's Proft's closing argument:</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="425" height="344" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/HkQVbyVBCto&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/HkQVbyVBCto&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed> </object> </p> <p>I liked his slogan, "Illinois isn't broken, it's fixed."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2M1ZWU3ZWNhNmIyMWRkNTQ2OTZiMzFkODNhODhmYmQ= Tue, 02 Feb 2010 16:24:26 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDI1YjRmMWQ4ZTYxYzZjNTYzMjI1MThkMmZiYTM2OWE= As noted on <a href="http://twitter.com/jimgeraghty" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, David Gergen said not long ago that, based on this last appearance by the president, he's concluded Obama is "back in his groove." A reader <a href="http://twitter.com/davidgaw/statuses/8556795032" target="_blank">notes</a>, "I think he means 'rut.'"</p> <p>But Gergen said something else almost useful. He noted that Obama is entering his second year in office, and that traditionally, presidents have pretty tough second years. Gallup finds presidential approval ratings dropping by <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/125294/Approval-Typically-Falls-Points-President-Second-Year.aspx" target="_blank">about five percentage points on average</a>, and you figure George W. Bush's slight increase from 2001 to 2002, heavily fueled by the 9/11 aftermath, skews this average a bit. Obama <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/124949/approval-obama-starts-2010-shaky-spot.aspx" target="_blank">began 2010 with 50 percent approval</a>.</p> <p>The <em>American Spectator</em>'s Phil Klein <a href="http://twitter.com/philipaklein/statuses/8557002586" target="_blank">quips</a>, "<span class="status-body"><span class="entry-content">Let's see how groovy Obama feels if Friday's job numbers are weak." Which seems like as good a reason as any to link to <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mqVCctaBK4" target="_blank">my video illustrating the dynamics</a> among "employed workers", "unemployed workers," and "discouraged workers," using my little guy's plastic animal figures.</span></span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDI1YjRmMWQ4ZTYxYzZjNTYzMjI1MThkMmZiYTM2OWE= Tue, 02 Feb 2010 16:10:08 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmM1MDEyMDRkZDAxZTgyMDZjNzc5NGRkOGViZWEzOTE= From a reader:</p> <blockquote> <p><span style=",helvetica,sans-serif;">My Dad has been laid up in the hospital/rehab with a broken leg since January 2, thanks to an encounter with black ice.  Unfortunately, he won't be able to bust out and cast a vote(s) in the primary . . . being good Ill-annoyins, can one of your DuPage County gentle readers cast a ballot for whoever's running against Kirk (Khan, Dr Soran, the Gorn, whoever) and the Polish kid on one of their spares?</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="New Roman;">I suspect television announcers everywhere would be relieved if </span><a href="http://www.adamforillinois.com/" target="_blank">Adam Andrzejewski</a> officially changed his name to "the Polish kid."</p> <p>Because if life has taught us anything, it's that you're just not going to rise very far in politics if you're a young, skinny Illinois politician with an unusual name.</p> <p>Meanwhile, from a Chicago reader:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="-small;"><span>I agree with your earlier correspondent that corruption is a bipartisan sport in Illinois. That’s why I voted today for total outsiders Adam Andrzejewski for governor and Patrick Hughes for senator.  (I’ll vote for Kirk in the general, if necessary, versus Alexi Giannoulias, but Kirk’s votes for cap-‘n-trade and against the surge in Iraq made him too big a pill for me to swallow.)</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="-small;"><span>Turnout seems very low.  I was voter #60 at 11 am at my polling place -- which is actually located in the condo high rise in which I live -- so no blaming the weather (which is not that bad, anyway).</span></span></p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmM1MDEyMDRkZDAxZTgyMDZjNzc5NGRkOGViZWEzOTE= Tue, 02 Feb 2010 15:32:40 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTFjYmE3ZjZjYmM4OGEyZmNkY2ViYmQ5MTA1MzQ2OTU= "You can't walk away from your responsibilities because it's good short-term politics," says Obama in New Hampshire.</p> <p>And taking those words to heart, President Obama apologized for not holding all health-care bill negotiations on C-SPAN, for <a href="http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2010/01/29/obamas-stunning-admission/">not being more upfront</a> that the health-care bill might have forced some Americans to give up their coverage; for <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzY0Mjc4NTgzMTgxNDQ2MzRjMGMwZjUyOGY4MTliNTY=">promising to not raise any taxes</a> on anyone making less than $250,000, and then turning around and immediately raising tobacco taxes; for pledging that everything on his spending list is “shovel-ready,” and then later admitting that <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OGU0NzE2ZTFlYWI0YzQ4YmExZWNjMDdlNmFjNDE1ZDE=">large numbers of the projects aren’t actually ready</a>; for making unrealistic promises about the stimulus as <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmUxMzIyNTUwOThiNTVlMmUwMDY3OTM3OGY1ZmY0YTg=" target="_blank">unemployment rises well beyond his worst-case scenario</a>;  for not posting <a class="iAs" style="border-bottom: 0.075em solid darkgreen ! important; font-weight: normal ! important; ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; padding-bottom: 1px ! important; ! important; background-! important; background-image: none; padding-top: 0pt; padding-right: 0pt; padding-left: 0pt;" href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWIzZTI0YzU2Mjc5MzgzZGRhMGQyNTQ0ZTYzYTlmZmE=" target="_blank">bills online</a> for five days before signing them; and for promising an innovative, groundbreaking web site to <a class="iAs" style="border-bottom: 0.075em solid darkgreen ! important; font-weight: normal ! important; ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; padding-bottom: 1px ! important; ! important; background-! important; background-image: none; padding-top: 0pt; padding-right: 0pt; padding-left: 0pt;" href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWIzZTI0YzU2Mjc5MzgzZGRhMGQyNTQ0ZTYzYTlmZmE=" target="_blank">help</a> track the spending, and then delivering a web site full of bad data and <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzUzODE1N2Q4Y2I4MjVmOWRiYWQwZThkYzFiN2M3ODM=">nonexistent congressional districts</a>,</p> <p>Nah, just kidding about that last part.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTFjYmE3ZjZjYmM4OGEyZmNkY2ViYmQ5MTA1MzQ2OTU= Tue, 02 Feb 2010 14:31:11 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDlhNzVlMzc1ZTc0NmU4NTk5NTQyYzdmZWI5YTczOGQ= Early word is <a href="http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/2010/02/primary-concern-how-many-voters-will-see-their-shadows.html" target="_blank">turnout is low</a> in Illinois.</p> <p>While I have no real preferences in the primaries -- the choices for Illinois Republicans ought to be made by Illinois Republicans -- I think the GOP is probably likely to be in good shape in both statewide races.</p> <p>In the Senate, it's good that a well-funded candidate, lawyer <a href="http://www.patrickhughesforsenate.com/Home.aspx">Patrick Hughes</a>, put the question to voters of whether <a href="http://www.kirkforsenate.com/">Rep. Mark Kirk</a> is sufficiently conservative. Unless all of the polls are wrong -- and that's a possibility -- Kirk should win pretty comfortably tonight. While some conservatives may end up grumbling that they've ended up with a pro-choice candidate who had to <a href="http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/09/mark-kirk-i-voted-for-cap-and-trade-in-the-house-would-vote-no-in-the-senate-and-crowd-cheers.php" target="_blank">renounce his vote on cap-and-trade</a>, this is no Dede Scozzafava who was handed the nomination behind closed doors; if Kirk gets the nomination, he'll have won it the old-fashioned way, by getting Republicans to vote for him. (For those worried about crossover votes, the competitive primaries on the Democratic side make them less likely.)</p> <p>In the governor's race . . . in some ways, this is classic, fun, wild politics, with no real sense of who the winner is going to be tonight. Yes, it's regrettable that Chicago television stations <a href="http://www.foundingbloggers.com/wordpress/2010/02/eye-dont-witness-news-the-lech-walesa-story/" target="_blank">completely ignored</a> Lech Walesa's visit and endorsement of <a href="http://www.adamforillinois.com/" target="_blank">Adam Andrzejewski</a> for governor. But I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that if you're a Polish-American in the Chicago area, you heard about it the moment Walesa entered the city limits. My readers have wildly different preferences; some love Andrzejewski, others dismiss him as "a child"; some prefer <a href="http://www.proft2010.com/" target="_blank">Dan Proft</a>, others say they could live with <a href="http://www.dillardforgovernor.com/" target="_blank">Kirk Dillard</a>. I wouldn't pretend to know each of these candidates inside and out, but none of them scream "general-election poison," at least not so far. And particularly not in a year with the wind at the GOP's back (although we can count on President Obama to make an all-out effort in his home state).</p> <p>On the other side, the incumbent Democratic governor, Pat Quinn, is either going to go down or win by the skin of his teeth. That is still a party haunted by the ghost of Rod Blagojevich, and the difficult question of how many state lawmakers and party leaders averted their eyes from his reckless behavior. Beyond that, Quinn and his top rival, Comptroller Dan Hynes, have spent much of the primary accusing each other of racial insensitivity.</p> <p>A reader gives her take:</p> <blockquote> <div><span><span style="-small;">Just an anecdote for you:  I happily voted for Adam Andrzejewski and Mark Kirk in the GOP primaries this morning (voter #20 at around 6:15 am).  I live in the heart of DuPage County, one of the big western suburban counties outside Chicago which traditionally is considered to be a Republican stronghold (Peter Roskam is my US Rep, holding Henry Hyde's old seat).  </span></span></div> <div> </div> <div><span><span style="-small;">The rationale?  I actually first read up on Andrzejewski months ago after I heard a radio ad involving Bill Rancic (yeah, the guy from the first year's Apprentice) promoting his candidacy and after reading his webpage, etc. liked what he had to say.  I genuinely believe that until you have someone with no "combine" or "Chicago way" ties getting into power willing to basically cut the state employee payroll in at least half, and halve the salaries of those who are left on the state payroll, Illinois will continue to be a fiscal disaster.  Only someone from "outside" the existing establishment would have the ability to do that.  </span></span></div> <div> </div> <div><span><span style="-small;">Mark Kirk, well, he's the senate candidate who should be sufficiently palatable and non-scary to the North Shore liberals and still good enough for those of us who are tired of Democrats.  </span></span></div> <div> </div> <div><span><span style="-small;">FWIW, the national party seems to be a waste of space when it comes to getting honest Repubs back in office in Illinois to rebuild the party brand here.  Michael Steele came to speak at a GOP Lincoln celebration, and to the extent his remarks tried to "go local," they showed that he didn't have a clue about the problems the party faces here in Illinois.  Basically, there are just as many downstate R's as downtown D's that have their hands in the trough, and thus have a vested interest in keeping the state bureaucracy large and well-fed.</span></span></div> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDlhNzVlMzc1ZTc0NmU4NTk5NTQyYzdmZWI5YTczOGQ= Tue, 02 Feb 2010 12:34:50 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDM2MWYwNTE2OTU0MzViY2VhZmJjYTBlMjQ0MzkyNjk= Marco Rubio's campaign is thrilled by the talk on this morning's <em>Morning Joe</em>:</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="425" height="344" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/JseGVlMLZZM&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/JseGVlMLZZM&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></embed> </object> </p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDM2MWYwNTE2OTU0MzViY2VhZmJjYTBlMjQ0MzkyNjk= Tue, 02 Feb 2010 12:05:59 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OGNhYWRlNmUxMzIyZjVhYTc3MDllZjE1YmFmZmZiMWQ= Meg Whitman's lead in the California GOP primary <a href="http://www.pollster.com/blogs/ca_2010_sen_mclaughlin_1711.php" target="_blank">holds pretty steady</a>, 39 percent to 12 percent over Steve Poizner. With that many remaining undecided, obviously Poizner has room to grow, but the whole calling-in-the-FBI schtick <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWIwYTNlNjlhZTZlYjgxOWJkNDQ5NGM3YWQxMDNlZjU=" target="_blank">doesn't seem to be the right move</a>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OGNhYWRlNmUxMzIyZjVhYTc3MDllZjE1YmFmZmZiMWQ= Tue, 02 Feb 2010 11:55:41 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjY1NjMxMjQxZTQ3Nzk3OTY3NGNiYjkyNWYwZWQ0MGI= <a href="http://www.pollster.com/blogs/fl_2010_sen_gov_fabrizio_12728.php" target="_blank">Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates</a> polled 296 likely Republican primary voters, so the poll has a slightly larger than usual 5.6 percent margin of error.</p> <p>Having said that, Marco Rubio tops Charlie Crist, 44 percent to 30 percent.</p> <p>Goodnight, Irene!</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjY1NjMxMjQxZTQ3Nzk3OTY3NGNiYjkyNWYwZWQ0MGI= Tue, 02 Feb 2010 11:41:29 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWJlYzk5MDIzZmI0ZWMzMzgyZDc4YzI1ZGFlNzI5MTc= He hasn't officially entered the race yet, but <a href="http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/blanche-lincoln-poll.html" target="_blank">Public Policy Polling</a> finds Rep. John Boozman, Arkansas Republican, clinging to a 23-percentage-point lead over incumbent Democrat Blanche Lincoln.</p> <p>This comes as tough news to the previous leading GOP candidate, state senator Gilbert Baker, who only leads the incumbent Democrat by 15 percentage points.</p> <p>UPDATE: A recommended quip from above: <span><span style="new roman,times;">"</span><span style="new roman,times;">If her numbers get any worse, she’ll change her name from Blanche to Cringe."</span></span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWJlYzk5MDIzZmI0ZWMzMzgyZDc4YzI1ZGFlNzI5MTc= Tue, 02 Feb 2010 10:52:23 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWIwYTNlNjlhZTZlYjgxOWJkNDQ5NGM3YWQxMDNlZjU= I talked about this a bit in the Morning Jolt, building on <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjM2ZTBmYmQ3NGQyNzcyMjc0M2Y4NTBjZDg0ODU1MDk=" target="_blank">yesterday's post</a> on Steve Poizner's accusations against Meg Whitman.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Apparently Mike Murphy, a GOP consultant and adviser to Whitman, reached out to a Poizner associate, trying to see if Poizner could be persuaded to drop out of the gubernatorial race and encouraged to run for Senate in 2012. Some might find his language threatening, others would find it pretty garden-variety for a political consultant: “I hate the idea of us each spending $20 million beating the other in a primary, only to have a damaged nominee. And we can spend $40 million tearing up Steve if we must; bad for him, bad for us, and a crazy waste to tear up a guy with great future statewide potential -- really the only guy on the CA GOP bench for the future.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Based on that, Poizner <a href="http://action.stevepoizner.com/atf/cf/%7BD4FFC8C6-8DB3-410D-9A5A-4299A95E5469%7D/REFERRAL%20LETTER%20TO%20THE%20AUTHORITIES%20%28PUBLIC%29.PDF?tr=y&auid=5879837">wrote the state attorney general, secretary of state, and Sacramento FBI,</a> asking them to investigate whether a crime had been committed. (By the way, the state attorney general is . . . Jerry Brown, who is the almost-certain Democratic nominee for governor.)</p> <p class="MsoNormal">I thought Californians were supposed to be laid-back, but the Poizner response seems . . . over-caffeinated:</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=",Helvetica,sans-serif;"> <blockquote> <p>The Steve Poizner for Governor campaign issued the following statement from Communications Director Jarrod Agen:</p> <p>We are pleased to hear that Mr. Murphy ”will fully cooperate” with state and local authorities and will provide “full details of [his] communication with various Poizner consultants."  Although Meg Whitman refuses to speak to California reporters, there are questions that still remain and must be answered:</p> <p>- Did Meg Whitman order Mike Murphy, her Chief Strategist, to do whatever it took to make sure she did not have a serious opponent in the Republican primary?<br /><br />- If Meg Whitman did not authorize Mike Murphy to threaten Steve Poizner, does she approve of his threats?<br /><br />- Did Meg Whitman offer a cash bounty to Mike Murphy to get Steve Poizner out of the race? <br /><br />- Did Meg Whitman authorize her Chief Strategist to try to buy off Steve Poizner by offering him the 2012 U.S. Senate Republican Nomination? <br /><br />- Will Meg Whitman cooperate fully with the authorities, as Mike Murphy has pledged to do?  <br /><br />- When will Meg Whitman explain to Californians why she allowed her Chief Strategist to make these threats and use intimidation tactics?<br /><br />- Will Meg Whitman answer reporters’ questions about Mr. Murphy’s threat to use $40+ million of her money to tear Steve up?</p> </blockquote> <span style=",Helvetica,sans-serif;"> <p style="text-align: left;">Really, guys? Really? Calling the FBI over an e-mail encouraging him to consider another run for another office?</p> <p style="text-align: left;">This isn't even remotely the most threatening comment in California politics in recent years. <a href="http://www.drudgereportarchives.com/data/2003/08/12/20030812_154827_as1.htm" target="_blank">Back in 2003</a>, during the recall election, <span style="new roman,times;">California Democratic party spokesman Bob Mulholland said that "Schwarzenegger is going to find out, that unlike a Hollywood movie set, the bullets coming at him in this campaign are going to be real bullets and he is going to have to respond to them."</span></p> <p style="text-align: left;"><span style="new roman,times;">Maybe this will rebound to Poizner's advantage, but I can't help but suspect that he just put up a big sign that says, <em>"If I'm this apoplectic about a Whitman adviser, just think of what Jerry Brown will do to me."</em></span></p> </span></span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWIwYTNlNjlhZTZlYjgxOWJkNDQ5NGM3YWQxMDNlZjU= Tue, 02 Feb 2010 10:13:38 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzhkODhmN2JiYmM4YTkxYjU3NTVlMjgxYWI5NWIwZGY= With the arrival of Scott Brown in Washington, the <em>Post</em>'s Eugene Robinson <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/01/AR2010020102855.html?nav=emailpage" target="_blank">suddenly grows weary</a> of politicians who are portrayed as "a knight in shining armor . . . another political messiah come to deliver the nation from evil."</p> <p>Yeah, Eugene, that gets so <em>tiresome</em>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzhkODhmN2JiYmM4YTkxYjU3NTVlMjgxYWI5NWIwZGY= Tue, 02 Feb 2010 10:02:21 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTZjNDhjYTk3NWIxNzk2M2Q1MGM5M2ExNjg4ZTQ4YzQ= A report from a reader in Chicago:</p> <blockquote> <p>There's a lot of snow here in Chicago, but Chicagoans are hearty folk: the public schools have had about three snow days in the last 20 years, so I don't know that it affects turnout.  (That said, two hours into voting, I was #12.)<br /><br />My wife was going to vote for Jim Ryan for Governor, but with all the hype and love going out to Andrzejewski, we decided to switch votes at the last second to fire up the base.  I decided to vote on the Democratic side, because I think a vote for sitting governor Pat Quinn is the most pro-GOP vote you can have today!</p> </blockquote> <p>Something seems wrong here. Am I to understand a Chicagoan voted only once?</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTZjNDhjYTk3NWIxNzk2M2Q1MGM5M2ExNjg4ZTQ4YzQ= Tue, 02 Feb 2010 09:52:15 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjlkOGZkYjFmNjU2NjIyYzEzZmQ4M2Q1OTU0NmY1YmY= I <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmU3MjFmNGNjYjZlZWRiN2ZkZDVjOGUxNTBlNDhkZGU=" target="_blank">mentioned this yesterday</a>, but it's worth repeating as an illustration of just how miserable the jobs situation looks. As Calculated Risk <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/obama-administration-unemployment.html" target="_blank">lays out</a>,</p> <blockquote> <p>As part of the annual budget, the Obama Administration released the underlying economic assumptions too (see <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2011/assets/econ_analyses.pdf">Page 13</a> of PDF). For GDP, they are forecasting real GDP growth of 2.7 percent in 2010, followed by 3.8 percent, 4.3 percent and 4.2 percent in 2013. For unemployment, the forecast is for an average of 10 percent in 2010, with a decline to 9.2 percent in 2011, 8.2 percent in 2012 and 7.3 percent in 2013.</p> </blockquote> <p>If unemployment is still around 8 percent in 2012, Obama's a one-termer, presuming the Republicans don't nominate a Dede Scozzafava/Lady Gaga ticket, right? Give them credit for avoiding a rosy scenario in at least one aspect; their assumption right now is that the economy's performance in the coming three years will probably lead to additional job losses, centered on 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjlkOGZkYjFmNjU2NjIyYzEzZmQ4M2Q1OTU0NmY1YmY= Tue, 02 Feb 2010 07:45:35 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MGEwNmVkZGQwMmMwY2Q1NTE3Y2FiZjcwNTRlOTE0ZGU= It's primary day in Illinois, and there's a House special-election primary -- yeah, another one -- in Florida's 19th congressional district, where Robert Wexler abruptly retired. Four Democrats and three Republicans are seeking the office. On the Democratic side, the candidate with the most experience in campaigns is state senator Ted Deutch; on the GOP side, the field includes <a href="http://www.joebuddforcongress.com/" target="_blank">Joe Budd</a>, <a href="http://www.electlynch.com/" target="_blank">Edward Lynch</a>, and <a href="http://curtpriceforcongress.com/" target="_blank">Curt Price</a>.</p> <p>Looking ahead a bit, while any Republican's got a shot in a post-Scott Brown world, this is the Palm Beach and Broward County district, where Al Gore and Joe Lieberman won 73 percent, and Kerry and Obama each took 66 percent the last two cycles.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MGEwNmVkZGQwMmMwY2Q1NTE3Y2FiZjcwNTRlOTE0ZGU= Tue, 02 Feb 2010 07:37:18 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzUwNmEzYjlhMmJkOWM4YWE0MjkzOWJhZjhhMTU2NWM= From today's Morning Jolt, off to the editors and arriving in your e-mail box shortly:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span>When You Pay Attention to the Deficit, Washington Seems Disordered</span></strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>For a long time, there was this sense that the deficit and spending were faraway, dry, technical issues that made most voters’ eyes glaze over. And now we’re in a Tea Party world -- hey, somebody <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Marshmallow-World-Jessica-Martin-Steyn/dp/B001HKRKFU">get Mark Steyn to write a song with that title</a> -- and you see a <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704722304575037470289762694.html">headline like this one</a> in the <em>Wall Street Journal</em>:</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;"><strong><span>Deficit to Hit All-Time High </span></strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>And you think to yourself, ‘yeah, if Obama keeps this up, he’s a one-termer.’ You can only ignore public opinion for so long, and the Blank Slate of Obama of 2008 sold himself as the tax-cutting, waste-eliminating, sensible centrist. Now it is clear: fiscal conservatism is as alien to Barack Obama as chanting <a href="http://www.slate.com/id/2069217/">the lyrics to “Courtesy of the Red, White, and Blue”</a> at a Toby Keith concert.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span><a href="http://reason.com/blog/2010/02/01/meet-the-new-obama-same-as-the">The guys at Reason</a> are unimpressed: “Meet The New Obama, Same as The Old Obama: Tomorrow We Scrimp, But Today We Spend!” (Isn’t it fun to have the libertarians on our side again?)</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span><a href="http://michellemalkin.com/2010/02/01/debt-deluge-here-comes-the-1-6-trillion-flood-of-red-ink/">Michelle Malkin</a>: “During another brief, teleprompter-aided statement this morning, Obama lectured: ‘Changing spending as usual depends on changing politics as usual.’ Waiting . . .”</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Clifton B, writing at Another Black Conservative, <a href="http://anotherblackconservative.blogspot.com/2010/02/budget-obama-is-living-in-matrix.html">concludes</a>, “For now Obama only offers toothless commissions, rosy economic projections, the puniest of cuts and another dose of 'Blame Bush' as though any of that is sufficient to address the massive debt we are carrying today.”</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span><a href="http://www.qando.net/?p=6888">Bruce McQuain</a>: “The President, Democrats and some pundits have been trying to set the public up for this for a few weeks. They talk about how important deficit reduction is in the long term, but claim that when the economy is bad and unemployment is high that is not the time to be pursuing that goal. Paul Krugman, for one, has been saying it for months. And Obama made that claim in his State of the Union address. The entire reason behind the prep was to prepare the public <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704722304575037470289762694.html">for massive spending and budget deficit proposal</a> -- neither of which we can afford.”</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">At <a href="http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmY4N2Q4YWY1NDAzMDQ5OTI1NDAxMjdhZTg2ZjY5MmM=">NRO</a>, Chris Edwards of Cato looks at some previously wildly inaccurate budget projections and concludes, “The lesson from all this is that an administration's promised spending beyond the first year is meaningless. Obama is proposing a freeze on a very small part of the budget, for example, but his budget plan next year will likely find reasons to break that promise. It scares the hell out of me that federal spending down the road could be 41 percent higher than even the huge increases projected by Obama. But that seems to be where we are headed unless we put in place laws or constitutional amendments to really clamp down on the spend-happy politicians of both parties.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Kim Preistap <a href="http://wizbangblog.com/content/2010/02/01/larry-summers-looks-like-hes-trying-to-sneak-away.php">looks at a photo</a> of Obama and his economic team unveiling the budget, and notices, “Larry Summers looks like he’s trying to sneak away.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/02/us/politics/02deficit.html?partner=rss&emc=rss">This sentence</a> from this morning’s <em>New York Times</em> is probably going to resonate for a while and enter the national dialogue: “By President Obama’s own optimistic projections, American deficits will not return to what are widely considered sustainable levels over the next 10 years.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Hey, “unsustainable” is the new “normal.”</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">As noted, the Jolt is free. Besides this preview, the only way to read each morning's 1500 words or so is to <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/newsletters">sign up</a>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzUwNmEzYjlhMmJkOWM4YWE0MjkzOWJhZjhhMTU2NWM= Tue, 02 Feb 2010 07:24:35 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjM2ZTBmYmQ3NGQyNzcyMjc0M2Y4NTBjZDg0ODU1MDk= <p class="MsoNormal">In California's GOP gubernatorial primary, Steve Poizner says that a Meg Whitman adviser is trying to push him out of the race; the Whitman adviser questions the sanity of Poizner. I suspect that this back-and-forth is not going to help either candidate.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">From Steve Poizner’s campaign:</p> <blockquote> <p><span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">Republican candidate for governor Steve Poizner today revealed intimidation tactics from Meg Whitman in which her top political advisor threatened to spend $40 million “tearing up” Commissioner Poizner. Last week, Meg Whitman’s trusted advisor Mike Murphy contacted multiple people connected to the Poizner campaign and attempted to intimidate Poizner out of the race. In return for dropping out, Meg Whitman offered to deliver to Commissioner Poizner the Republican nomination for the 2012 U.S. Senate race against Dianne Feinstein.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">“Meg Whitman can’t risk the chance that voters have a choice. This is the Whitman campaign’s way to cancel the election and take away the fundamental right of voters,” said Commissioner Poizner. “Instead of debating the issues with me or answering questions from the press, Meg Whitman chooses to hide behind threats and intimidation tactics to stop Republicans from having a choice in the primary.”</span></p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong></strong>Mike Murphy, senior adviser to the Meg Whitman campaign, issued the following statement responding to accusations made by Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">After reading the ridiculous charges made by Steve Poizner during today's strange press conference, all I can say is that I'm starting to worry about Commissioner's mental condition.<br /><br />It is true that I have been trying to find a way to avoid a costly and unnecessary Republican primary. I believe it is important that Republicans across California unite around Meg Whitman to defeat Jerry Brown in the fall. It is also true that I am not the only one with this view. Many Republican leaders are more and more concerned that the Poizner campaign, now 28+ points behind in the polls and still sinking, is becoming little more than a stalking horse for Jerry Brown and the Democrats, especially since Commissioner Poizner has been loudly threatening to run a multi-million dollar negative campaign against Meg Whitman for months. <br /><br />Several weeks ago I was advised by a source close to Steve Poizner that his pollster, my old friend Jan van Lohuizen, had been expressing grave doubts about the viability of the faltering Poizner campaign. So I emailed Jan; this is the email the Commissioner is so excited about. About ten days ago I also placed a phone call to a second senior Poizner consultant. We had a nice talk and discussed the option of Poizner considering a race for Senate in 2012. The consultant offered to discuss this with Commissioner Poizner and asked for a number where I could be called back. I do not plan to make any further comment on these discussions, as I do not want to create even more embarrassment for his consultants, or get anybody fired.<br /><br />Judging from the Commissioner's rant today concerning the FBI and Jerry Brown, I take it the Commissioner's answer is "no." Hopefully the Commissioner was not serious about wasting taxpayer dollars by asking state and federal authorities to waste their time on such a silly matter of perfectly legal politics. Should they be interested, however, I will fully cooperate and provide them with a full details of my communication with various Poizner consultants about the dangerous futility of his campaign.</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">Maybe I’m getting cynical in my old age, but "You’re down a bunch, try another race in another year" doesn’t quite meet the bar of ‘intimidation tactics,’ but . . . hey. This is why we have primaries.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Look, considering the shape that California is in, couldn't you question the sanity of <em>anyone </em>who wants to be the next governor?</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjM2ZTBmYmQ3NGQyNzcyMjc0M2Y4NTBjZDg0ODU1MDk= Mon, 01 Feb 2010 16:26:20 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTAxMWMwMmUwZTkzN2YzNWJjNTAzOWVkMGY3ZjEzZDI= When <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/125462/Obama-Approval-Hits-50-After-Stretch-Sub-50-Ratings.aspx" target="_blank">Gallup sends out a release</a> announcing that Obama's job-approval rating is back to 50 percent, you know the administration has hit a rough patch.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTAxMWMwMmUwZTkzN2YzNWJjNTAzOWVkMGY3ZjEzZDI= Mon, 01 Feb 2010 15:53:18 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmIzODhhNTIxNTU0MjU1ODlkZjU3YjlkMzViNjNhN2U= "You can't spend more money than you have" seems like a very, very, <em>very </em>counterintuitive argument to defend a budget proposal that would create a $1.56 trillion deficit:</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="425" height="344" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/gH14KUuaG3A&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/gH14KUuaG3A&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></embed> </object> </p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmIzODhhNTIxNTU0MjU1ODlkZjU3YjlkMzViNjNhN2U= Mon, 01 Feb 2010 15:29:28 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTgwZGFmYzAxZDIxNWU4NDA4NmY4OGNhODFjZTgxYzg= This morning, there were some justifiably skeptical responses when Marco Rubio's campaign said they <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzA4MTk3OGYzYmI3ZDFjNDc1Y2JmMTExMWQyOGY5ODM=" target="_blank">aimed to raise $787,000 in ten days</a>. (Yes, Scott Brown had some million-dollar days, but that fundraising effort had the advantage of urgency; the election was only a few days away.)</p> <p>But Sen. Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund PAC is helping out, and <a href="http://senateconservatives.com/moneybomb/rubio" target="_blank">Rubio's pledges are up to $108,700</a>, which is a pretty good start.</p> <p>As I mentioned on <a href="http://twitter.com/jimgeraghty/statuses/8507327377" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, I think if Rubio hits his fundraising mark, his main rival in the GOP primary, Gov. Charlie Crist, will find some other avenue for his ambitions. A <a href="http://www.postonpolitics.com/2010/02/rasmussen-poll-rubio-49-crist-37/" target="_blank">new poll has him down 12</a> in the primary, he does no better than Rubio in general-election matchups, and he's left looking for a new justification for his candidacy, having established himself as a moderate man in a distinctly immoderate year. Choosing to run for reelection as governor would scramble the already-underway race for that office, but Sen. Bill Nelson is up for reelection in 2012, and conservatives might be a little wary of taking on a two-term Democratic senator.</p> <p>Crist could salvage some goodwill from conservatives if he were to withdraw now. He might look squishy and uninspiring next to Rubio, but in the eyes of Florida Republicans, he looks a lot more appealing than six more years of Nelson.</p> <p>UPDATE: Rubio's pitch for his "stimulus bomb":</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="560" height="340" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/fT6OyPuTyDw&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="560" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/fT6OyPuTyDw&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></embed> </object> </p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTgwZGFmYzAxZDIxNWU4NDA4NmY4OGNhODFjZTgxYzg= Mon, 01 Feb 2010 15:08:50 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGUyNzU3ZWYwMGE2NTE2MGNlY2Y3OGNkZWVhNTNjNTk= Interesting. <a href="http://www.wndu.com/hometop/headlines/83211742.html" target="_blank">More than 1,000 people</a> show up for the kickoff event for an Indiana state representative, <a href="http://www.standwithjackie.com/" target="_blank">Jackie Walorsk</a>i, who's aiming to take on Joe Donnelly (D., Ind.). Donnelly represents a South Bend-based district, a marginally Republican one that Obama carried with 54 percent of the vote.</p> <p><span id="storyText" class="headlines">"This is exactly what happened in Massachusetts, it wasn't a Republican or Democratic thing, it was the power of the independent voter, the power of the independent voice, standing up and saying we want our country back, and I am overwhelmed by that kind of the support in this room. These people are fired up, and ready to go,” said Walorski.</span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGUyNzU3ZWYwMGE2NTE2MGNlY2Y3OGNkZWVhNTNjNTk= Mon, 01 Feb 2010 13:01:33 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzA4NjI4NDlkYzE4NjY5Mjc0OWM1NmQ2ZmYzZmZjNzU= Patrick Ruffini <a href="http://www.engagedc.com/uploads/DjouMemo.pdf" target="_blank">offers an unexpected and compelling bit of news</a>: in Hawaii, an upcoming special House election -- yes, I know, it seems like there's always a special election coming up somewhere -- has the potential to be "NY-23 in reverse."</p> <blockquote> <p>Hawaii has no special primary elections, and all candidates run in the general election. A simple plurality is required to win. Currently, the HI-1 field features two well-known Democratic candidates (with another on the way in), and one competitive Republican candidate, Charles Djou . . .</p> <p>The Djou campaign is taking nothing for granted and has a vote goal of 50.1%. Charles Djou is prepared to take on a single major Democratic candidate. But we do note that the Democrats' ability to consolidate around a single candidate is clouded by the presence of two well-known Democrats from different factions of the party who are unlikely to drop out and endorse the other. In the Blue Dog corner is former 2nd District Rep. Ed Case, and representing the liberal base is State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa who has been resoundingly endorsed by organized labor and EMILY's List. A third candidate has recently emerged, State Sen. Will Espero, who is likely to further split the Democratic vote.</p> <p>In effect, the HI-1 special can be likened to NY-23 in reverse, with Ed Case occupying the unenviable "Scozzafava" position and Hanabusa representing the base of the party. Like Scozzafava, Case has depended on crossover Republican votes to win elections in the past, support that is likely to evaporate once voters know there is a real, electable Republican candidate in the race.</p> </blockquote> <p>A Republican winning a House race in Hawaii is about as likely as . . . well, a Republican winning a Senate seat in Massachusetts, and we know how that turned out.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzA4NjI4NDlkYzE4NjY5Mjc0OWM1NmQ2ZmYzZmZjNzU= Mon, 01 Feb 2010 12:15:15 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmU3MjFmNGNjYjZlZWRiN2ZkZDVjOGUxNTBlNDhkZGU= Whichever administration official just laid out this vision for NBC's <a href="http://twitter.com/chucktodd/statuses/8505155068" target="_blank">Chuck Todd</a>, he might as well update his résumé: "Obama administration lays down unemployment rate markers: by the end of 2010, it will be below 10 percent; by the end of  2011, below 9 percent and by end of 2012, just below 8 percent."</p> <p>So they're projecting that for the duration of Obama's term, unemployment will be higher than it was during the Bush years? And come 2012, when Obama seeks another term, it will have improved to between 7 and 9 percent?</p> <p>How does that old Democratic-party theme song go?</p> <blockquote> <p style="padding-left: 30px;"><em>Happy days are here again<br />The skies above are clear again<br />So let's sing a song of cheer again<br />Happy days are here again</em></p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmU3MjFmNGNjYjZlZWRiN2ZkZDVjOGUxNTBlNDhkZGU= Mon, 01 Feb 2010 11:55:57 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzNlMjdkYTc0ZDczYjE0YjcxZjBhYWI3OGNmYzZjZDU= Is Republican Scott Walker attracting donations in his bid to be the next governor of Wisconsin? You could say that; the number of donations was so high, his campaign records submission <a href="http://www.scottwalker.org/press-release/2010/02/walker-donations-so-numerous-government-filing-system-crashes-trying-process-t" target="_blank">crashed the state Government Accountability Boards' online system</a>.</p> <blockquote> <p>The campaign reported over $2 million dollars cash on hand, with $1.79 million raised since the last reporting period.  Included in the report are also 18,580 donors from all seventy-two counties in Wisconsin.  Seventy-four percent of all donations were $50 or less, and $265,773 was raised online.</p> </blockquote> <p>New agenda item for potential governor Walker: improving the computers at the Government Accountability Boards.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzNlMjdkYTc0ZDczYjE0YjcxZjBhYWI3OGNmYzZjZDU= Mon, 01 Feb 2010 11:36:17 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTUwZTUzM2ZlYTIwMzQyZTg3YTRjODA0OTg3MmU1ODE= The aspiring House members of the GOP <a href="http://www.legalnewsline.com/news/225313-former-w.va.-sc-justice-maynard-running-for-congress" target="_blank">just keep coming along</a>: "Former West Virginia Supreme Court Justice Elliott "Spike" Maynard announced Monday that he is running for Congress. Maynard recently switched to the Republican party and is seeking that party's seat to challenge current U.S. Rep. Nick Rahall, a Democrat who has served in the House for 33 years. Maynard said he is running to save jobs that depend on the coal industry. "West Virginians deserve a congressman who will fight to end this war on coal instead of standing by idly as thousands of local jobs are threatened," Maynard said."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTUwZTUzM2ZlYTIwMzQyZTg3YTRjODA0OTg3MmU1ODE= Mon, 01 Feb 2010 11:30:01 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWU0Y2QzODIzNjhhOGYzNDkwYzM0N2MyNTljYWJjMGM= <p class="MsoNormal">Tomorrow is Primary Day in Illinois.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">In the Senate primary, the best-known candidate on the Democratic side is state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias of Chicago; he's expected to win pretty easily against Chicago inspector general David Hoffman, Chicago Urban League president Cheryle Robinson Jackson, and three other lesser-known candidates.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">On the Republican side, <a href="http://www.kirkforsenate.com/">Rep. Mark Kirk</a> is the favorite, going up against lawyer <a href="http://www.patrickhughesforsenate.com/Home.aspx">Patrick Hughes</a>, Alderman <a href="http://arringtonforsenate.com/">John Arrington</a>, former circuit-court judge <a href="http://www.judgelowery4ussenate.com/wordpress/">Don Lowery</a>, lawyer <a href="http://www.andyforussenator.com/">Andy Martin</a>, and former school-board member <a href="http://kathleenthomasforsenate.org/">Kathleen Thomas</a>.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">As I said last week, Hughes has broken out of the pack, for whatever that’s worth, but still trails Kirk by<span>  </span>a hefty margin.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Is Kirk too liberal for a conservative to vote for in good conscience? His lifetime ACU rating is a pretty “meh” <a href="http://www.acuratings.org/2008all.htm">55.69.</a> He voted for the cap-and-trade legislation. He’s worked with Mike Bloomberg on some gun-control measures. (Grumblegrumblegrumble.) He said that if he were John McCain, he wouldn’t have picked Sarah Palin as his running mate. (Grumblegrumblegrumble.)</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Having said that, he’s a Republican who’s managed to win repeatedly in a pretty Democratic district (Cook PVI: D+6) and survived in a year when Obama carried 61 percent of the vote in his district. Even though he looks young enough to get carded at most bars, he’s a commander in the Naval reserves, and in late 2008 he traveled with the Navy as a special adviser for counternarcotics, making him, according to Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics the first House member since World War II to serve in a combat area. He supported the surge, opposed withdrawal from Iraq in 2008. He’s got a lifetime rating of 86 from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. If Kirk becomes a senator, he seems likely to please foreign policy and fiscal conservatives, while disappointing social conservatives.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">There’s not a ton of <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/il/illinois_senate_giannoulias_vs_kirk-1092.html">polling in the potential matchups</a>, but right now, Kirk trails in the most recent one; earlier polls had it tied or a small lead for Kirk. If a Republican can win in Massachusetts, there’s no reason the GOP shouldn’t have a shot in Illinois in the post-Blago era.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">In their gubernatorial race, Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn, the man who took the place of Rod Blagojevich, is running for a full term and is <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/il/illinois_governor_democratic_primary-1176.html">in trouble</a> against state comptroller Dan Hynes.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">A small army of candidates has massed on the Republican side: entrepreneur <a href="http://www.adamforillinois.com/Video/">Adam Andrzejewski</a>, state senator <a href="http://bradyforillinois.com/">Bill Brady</a>, state senator <a href="http://www.dillardforgovernor.com/">Kirk Dillard</a>, Illinois Republican party chairman <a href="http://www.mckennagov.com/site/c.swL1KeNZLvH/b.5550749/k.BF5A/Home.htm">Andy McKenna</a>, small businessman and radio commentator <a href="http://www.proft2010.com/">Dan Proft</a>, and former state attorney general <a href="http://www.jimryan2010.com/">Jim Ryan</a>. Polling suggests <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/il/illinois_governor_republican_primary-1177.html">this a close race</a>, and with six candidates all within a few percentage points of each other, <span> </span>it’s anybody’s game.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Andrew Andrzejewski certainly is turning heads in the final days; you can’t find many better endorsers in a GOP primary than Lech Walesa (yeah, <a href="http://www.adamforillinois.com/Video/">that Lech Walesa</a>) and <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8cKf9D7MBg">Eduardo Verastegui</a>, actor and pro-life activist. That campaign says their internal polls <a href="http://gatewaypundit.firstthings.com/2010/01/breaking-adam-andrzejewski-surges-to-within-2-points-in-latest-polling/">show them surging</a>. Of course, in a six way race, a few points might count as a surge - and be enough for a win.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWU0Y2QzODIzNjhhOGYzNDkwYzM0N2MyNTljYWJjMGM= Mon, 01 Feb 2010 11:06:51 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDAxYTE1ZmEwNDllYTcwYWU3YmIyNTJkYWU1ZjgyYTM= I echo <a href="http://moelane.com/2010/02/01/va-08-4441-moranberry-caveats/" target="_blank">Moe Lane's caveats</a>, but I'm pleasantly stunned by this bit of news:</p> <blockquote> <p>- The Matthew Berry for Congress campaign has released an internal poll conducted by the Tarrance Group showing that incumbent Congressman Jim Moran is clearly vulnerable heading into the 2010 election and that Matthew Berry is well-positioned to capitalize on Moran's weakness.</p> <p>While likely general election voters in Virginia's 8th Congressional District prefer a generic Democrat to a generic Republican by a margin of 56% to 32%, they nevertheless believe that Jim Moran does not deserve reelection. Specifically, only 38% of likely voters believe that incumbent Jim Moran deserves to be reelected in November while the plurality of likely voters, 40%, believe that it is time to give someone new a chance. The remaining 23% are unable to say that Moran should be sent back to Congress, but say who they will vote for depends on his opponent in November.</p> <p>The poll also reveals that Matthew Berry is the Republican candidate who can beat Jim Moran. When Matthew Berry’s background and experience are described to voters as well as Moran’s experience and record, the race is within the margin of error: 41% for Matthew Berry and 44% for incumbent Jim Moran, with a significant 16% remaining undecided.</p> <p>When asked for comment, Kristopher Morris, Campaign Manager for Matthew Berry for Congress, made the following statement:<br /> <br /> “This poll shows that voters are quickly tiring of Jim Moran, his ongoing abuse of his office, and his litany of offensive statements. Once they get past the surface of partisan identity and look at who Congressman Moran is, they realize that they do not want him representing us in Washington. The poll also shows that Matthew Berry is the Republican candidate who can defeat Jim Moran by winning the independent vote and attracting the support of Democrats who believe it is time for Jim Moran to go.”</p> </blockquote> <p>Keep in mind that in November, Creigh Deeds won this district with 61 percent to Bob McDonnell's 38 percent. So even under good electoral circumstances, this is a tough, tough seat for the GOP to win. But over his long career, Moran's given a lot of Democrats <a href="http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=Y2I0MDdjOGZmMjhlZjY0MjI0NDYxMjRhOGVmMTBiNGY=" target="_blank">a lot of good reasons to tire of him</a>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDAxYTE1ZmEwNDllYTcwYWU3YmIyNTJkYWU1ZjgyYTM= Mon, 01 Feb 2010 09:54:51 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzMyYmJiMjBkNWNhYzE5MThjZjY0MTk1N2IzZDQ5MWE= <a href="http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/axelrod-we-have-not-lost-anything-giving-abdulmutallab-miranda-rights" target="_blank">Stephen Hayes</a> is a skeptic:</p> <blockquote> <p>"Top White House adviser David Axelrod believes the U.S. government properly handled the Christmas Day bomber, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, despite the fact that Abdulmutallab stopped talking to interrogators after having had Miranda rights read to him.  In an appearance on NBC's <em>Meet the Press</em>, Axelrod was asked about the decision to read Abdulmutallab his rights after just 50 minutes of interrogation.  "We have not lost anything as a result of how this case has been handled," Axelrod said.  It was an updated version of the claim that Robert Gibbs made last week, when he said that FBI interrogators had gotten "all they could get" from Abdulmutallab in their brief session."</p> </blockquote> <p>Come on, Stephen. If a noted national security expert like <em>David Axelrod</em> said the bomber's already said everything he's going to say, that settles it.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzMyYmJiMjBkNWNhYzE5MThjZjY0MTk1N2IzZDQ5MWE= Mon, 01 Feb 2010 09:48:49 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzA4MTk3OGYzYmI3ZDFjNDc1Y2JmMTExMWQyOGY5ODM= Florida GOP Senate candidate Marco Rubio and his campaign have an unusual way of marking the one-year anniversary of the Obama stimulus event hosted by their GOP rival, Gov. Charlie Crist: aiming to raise $787,000 in the next ten days.<br /><br />In a conference call this morning, Rubio said that new media and Internet-based grassroots had made his rise - now even, or slightly ahead of Crist in most polls: "Five years ago, this wouldn't have been possible."<br /><br />But the campaign doesn't sound like a front-running bunch; they suspect they're about to endure an onslaught, coming from the Crist campaign and a press that they see as hard to distinguish from Crist's operation. (Rubio adviser Todd Harris quipped, "the media are in love with Charlie Crist.")</p> <p>Rubio noted, "You're going to see a very aggressive mainstream media in the aftermath of the Massachusetts Senate race. There wasn't enough time for them to have an impact on a late-breaking phenomenon, and I think you're going to see them react to that experience... The mainstream media agrees with this administration and its view on the role of government, and they're going to be very aggressive against anyone who challenges that. When we were just a blip on the screen, we were an interesting curiosity, but now that we're in the lead, they're going to be very aggressive."</p> <p>Rubio noted that his schedule is still being dictated by finances; he did the call while boarding a plane. He said he has to turn down events simply because he can't get to them; "I'm still flying commercial, and you know what an adventure that can be."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzA4MTk3OGYzYmI3ZDFjNDc1Y2JmMTExMWQyOGY5ODM= Mon, 01 Feb 2010 09:39:25 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzMzNDgwZWNlYThkNTkwOTYxOWVjYWVhMjVkNDA4NmY= From today's edition of the Morning Jolt, just sent off for the editing and e-mailing process:</p> <p> </p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Imagine That, the Obama Administration Recoiling From Accountability</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Somehow, I don’t think <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/01/education/01child.html?hp">this sentence</a> will be that shot in the arm that Team Obama was looking for: “The Obama administration is proposing a sweeping overhaul of President Bush’s signature education law, No Child Left Behind, and will call for broad changes in how schools are judged to be succeeding or failing, as well as for the elimination of the law’s 2014 deadline for bringing every American child to academic proficiency.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Do you have to even guess who wants this? “Educators who have been briefed by administration officials said the proposals for changes in the main law governing the federal role in public schools would eliminate or rework many of the provisions that teachers’ unions, associations of principals, school boards and other groups have found most objectionable.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">The <em>Times</em>’ coverage continues, “Yet the administration is not planning to abandon the law’s commitments to closing the achievement gap between minority and white students and to encouraging teacher quality.” Well that’s big of them.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://ginacobb.typepad.com/gina_cobb/2010/02/so-now-some-child-will-be-left-behind.html">Gina Cobb</a>: “Nothing good will come of this more "nuanced" approach being urged by teacher's unions.  Nor will any students benefit academically from a new federal policy that will throw "large new amounts of money" at schools if they teach what Obama "defines" as important.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Elsewhere in the education world, John J. Miller <a href="http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDMzMjQ5ZGUyMTliZDg5OTQyZjFkODkxYzkxN2VhNzI=">notices</a> Democrats’ silence when Secretary of Education Arne Duncan <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/29/AR2010012903259.html?hpid=topnews">says</a> that Hurricane Katrina was "the best thing that happened to the education system in New Orleans.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>If Only Carl Sagan Were Here to Say “Trillions and Trillions”</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal">It’s Budget Day, where the administration unveils their budget (and often, the federal agencies would do the same to the reporters on their beat.) As a wire service reporter, I hated these stories. They all amounted to long lists of numbers, you inevitably had to get a quote from some interest group -- “while we’re pleased to see the 3 percent overall increase, there are still vital public service programs that are dangerously underfunded”-- <span> </span>and then the editors, having determined that budget stories are boring, would stick your story on A15 if you were lucky.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Having said all that, this year’s $1.6 trillion deficit ought to generate some real headlines. <a href="http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWYxODZkNjEwNTQxMzAyMGE3NTRiZTU5YjBhMzVhZmE=">NRO’s Daniel Foster</a>: “<span class="focusparagraph">That number is a record, and represents the largest deficit as a percentage of GDP since the Second World War. It is also significantly higher than the last CBO estimate, which predicted a $1.35 trillion deficit just last week. The new White House budget, also to be released tomorrow, will reportedly project a $1.3 trillion deficit for FY 2011.”</span></p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzMzNDgwZWNlYThkNTkwOTYxOWVjYWVhMjVkNDA4NmY= Mon, 01 Feb 2010 07:31:08 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWU2ODkxMWQwYTc2OTBhNWUxYTcxOGRmODAzYTg0MTU= This afternoon's event was the closest Americans have come to a version of Questions With the Prime Minister. Like everyone else, I think this event did Obama a great deal of good; it was the antidote to everything that was insufferable about the State of the Union - the uninterrupted platitudes, the dishonest framing, the aversion to acknowledging alternative views, the endless droning, etc.</p> <p>The questions from the Republicans were pointed but fair, and I think every member who asked a question thanked Obama for coming. I think most intriguing was when Obama was basically asked to take some responsibility for Pelosi shutting out House Republicans on major pieces of legislation. I've mocked some of Obama's recent town halls, with questioners tending to ask deeply personal or sometimes simply inane questions. This setup eliminated the 11-year-old girls asking President Obama why some people were so mean. It was serious, it was substantive, and it had a decent level of detail.</p> <p>The fact that it went so long, and that Obama didn't head for the door quickly, suggests that he enjoyed it.</p> <p>Two big questions arise from this event: Will he do a similarly- formatted, televised Q-and-A with Democrats? And if this turns out to be the mutual political winner that is seems to be, how soon will we see another?</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWU2ODkxMWQwYTc2OTBhNWUxYTcxOGRmODAzYTg0MTU= Fri, 29 Jan 2010 13:58:04 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Mjg0ZjgxNTIyMWNmNTgxZDdlMjY5NGViYzM5NWZkMTA= "We've got to be careful about what we say about each other," President Obama said to the House Republicans today.</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="425" height="344" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/hNbd8pUmWko&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/hNbd8pUmWko&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed> </object> </p> <p>On behalf of all those called "teabaggers" so frequently, I concur, Mr. President.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Mjg0ZjgxNTIyMWNmNTgxZDdlMjY5NGViYzM5NWZkMTA= Fri, 29 Jan 2010 13:22:22 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzRiZWIzZjZiNTEyZmY3ZGUxODEwMjJkMTk5YjdmZjM= <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation-world/bal-obama-updates0129,0,5197162.story" target="_blank">From the <em>Baltimore Sun</em></a>: "After a trip through the Fort McHenry tunnel, the president is at the hotel now. The motorcade was roughly 35 vehicles long, not including more than a dozen motorcycle cops. And no, nobody stopped to pay a toll (no EZ Passes used, either)."</p> <p>Look, I believe this is the Helmsley principle that "tolls are for little people."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzRiZWIzZjZiNTEyZmY3ZGUxODEwMjJkMTk5YjdmZjM= Fri, 29 Jan 2010 12:04:22 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjkzYTM3MWQ0YTU5Njg3YzI0MmQ4NGIxYWY1MGRhYjU= Rarely do you see our current president <a href="http://perfunction.typepad.com/perfunction/2010/01/video-obama-on-the-middle-east.html" target="_blank">express a deep, meaningful truth</a> in a manner that can almost be described as "Bushian":</p> <blockquote> <p>"The Middle East is obviously an issue that has plagued the region for centuries."</p> </blockquote> <p>So thoughtful, this man.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjkzYTM3MWQ0YTU5Njg3YzI0MmQ4NGIxYWY1MGRhYjU= Fri, 29 Jan 2010 12:00:00 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjAyYmU5MGI0OWMwNWY3ZjJjMjkzOGRjMWQ0ZGIxYTg= James O'Keefe <a href="http://biggovernment.com/2010/01/29/statement-from-james-okeefe/" target="_blank">issues a statement</a>: "<span style="New Roman; "><span>The government has now confirmed what has always been clear:  No one tried to wiretap or bug Senator Landrieu’s office.  Nor did we try to cut or shut down her phone lines.  Reports to this effect over the past 48 hours are inaccurate and false."</span></span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjAyYmU5MGI0OWMwNWY3ZjJjMjkzOGRjMWQ0ZGIxYTg= Fri, 29 Jan 2010 11:28:54 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjU5ODA1MWRhODI5NThlNDU5N2FkNzM1ZWNhZmMxM2I= For a while, it seemed like you couldn't find good Republican candidates for House races in Massachusetts. Now with Scott Brown's win, they're piling up, but unfortunately <a href="http://www.enterprisenews.com/news/x1685421353/Republicans-line-up-to-challenge-Delahunt" target="_blank">they're clumping together</a>: "South Shore Republicans have painted a bull’s-eye on U.S. Rep. William Delahunt. At least five people are considering a run for the 10th Congressional District seat he has held since 1997. The growing field includes three former and current state office holders - former State Treasurer Joe Malone of Scituate; state Sen. Robert Hedlund, R-Weymouth; and state Rep. Jeff Perry, R-Sandwich - as well as two political newcomers, Don Hussey of Hingham and Ray Kasperowicz of Cohasset."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjU5ODA1MWRhODI5NThlNDU5N2FkNzM1ZWNhZmMxM2I= Fri, 29 Jan 2010 10:49:29 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTAwNGRmM2IwOWY1YTIyMjhjMTA0ODdkYmFmNDk1ZDA= I've had several readers pass along the message that Rep. Steve Buyer, R-Indiana, will announce his retirement soon. Here's <a href="http://www.wishtv.com/dpp/news/embattled-congressman-buyer-to-retire" target="_blank">a local television report.</a></p> <p>Not a seat that is at much risk; it is one of the most reliably Republican districts in the country.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTAwNGRmM2IwOWY1YTIyMjhjMTA0ODdkYmFmNDk1ZDA= Fri, 29 Jan 2010 10:29:15 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Y2FjNWE0MjFlMWFkNjI4NTc1ZDhmNTQ4MGQwNGEzYmU= <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/iowa/election_2010_iowa_senate" target="_blank">Rasmussen</a> finds Sen. Charles Grassley's opposition to ObamaCare proposals has clearly hurt him in his home state of Iowa; up against three top Democrats, he hovers at 59 to 61 percent, while the Democrats surge to as much as 31 percent against him.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Y2FjNWE0MjFlMWFkNjI4NTc1ZDhmNTQ4MGQwNGEzYmU= Fri, 29 Jan 2010 10:07:07 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjhhYzU4ZDE4MjE4MDMyOWJmMjQ2YTlhNWEzMTRlZjY= Over at the <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rob-diamond/republicans-use-military_b_440393.html" target="_blank">Huffington Post</a>, they're trying to make hay out of Staff Sargeant Robert Tenpenny, who served with Jeanine McDonnell in Iraq, wearing his uniform and being seated behind McDonnell during his response to the State of the Union Address. They declare his presence "probably against the law" citing a directive barring "Attend[ing] partisan political events as an official representative of the Armed Forces, except as a member of a joint Armed Forces color guard at the opening ceremonies of the national conventions of the Republican, Democratic, or other political parties recognized by the Federal Elections Committee or as otherwise authorized by the Secretary concerned."</p> <p>The problem in their argument comes to this:</p> <blockquote> <p>I know many of you to my ideological right are already leaping out of your seats and shouting "well then why were there men and women in uniform at the State of the Union address?" Pretty simple answer, actually. The State of the Union is not a partisan political gathering (as the Republican response clearly is).</p> </blockquote> <p>Simple but incoherent. So it's okay for uniformed military to attend a State of the Union Address, but not okay for uniformed military to attend a <em>response </em>to a State of the Union Address.</p> <p>A speech by a Democratic president that Huffington Post likes is <em>not </em>partisan, but a response from a governor that they don't like <em>is </em>partisan.</p> <p>I suppose that if your mind can accept that, then yes, this is a terrible, terrible scandal.</p> <p>UPDATE: I checked with a source close to McDonnell, and he noted, "in an abundance of caution, Tenpenny asked his commanding officers and JAG for approval to attend, which was given."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjhhYzU4ZDE4MjE4MDMyOWJmMjQ2YTlhNWEzMTRlZjY= Fri, 29 Jan 2010 09:57:30 -0400