http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com The Campaign Spot is National Review Online’s blog for all things political and campaign-related. The blog is written by Jim Geraghty, author of Voting to Kill: How 9/11 Launched the Era of Republican Leadership. en-us © National Review Online 2009. All Rights Reserved webmaster@nationalreview.com (NRO Webmaster) Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:02:39 -0500 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:02:39 -0500 NRO RSS Generator v1.0 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss 5 http://www2.nationalreview.com/images/nro_rsslogo.jpg http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com 144 80 National Review Online webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzY0Mjc4NTgzMTgxNDQ2MzRjMGMwZjUyOGY4MTliNTY= Americans for Tax Reform has found <a href="http://www.atr.org/breaking-full-list-tax-hikesbr-senate-a4227" target="_blank">16 separate new taxes</a>, tax increases, and eliminations of tax deductions in the Senate version of the health-care bill.</p> <p><a href="http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/20/tax-pledge/" target="_blank">As Keith Hennessey notes</a>, this bill would violate, again, Barack Obama's promise that he would not raise taxes on those making less than $250,000. (He already broke that promise by raising tobacco taxes, but I guess that's the thing about breaking promises -- it gets easier with experience.)</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzY0Mjc4NTgzMTgxNDQ2MzRjMGMwZjUyOGY4MTliNTY= Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:49:08 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2FmNzA2ODI5ZGY2M2E2NWQwYTI0YjFkZmEzYmE2NTE= <a href="http://tark2010.org/" target="_blank">This ad from Danny Tarkanian</a>, candidate for Senate in Nevada, is hilarious, depicting X-Files' agents Fox Mulder and Dana Scully investigating Harry Reid's "missing congressional districts." Go watch it <em>right now</em>, as it will also probably be pulled very quickly, unless Tarkanian obtained the rights to use clips from "The X-Files."</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="560" height="340" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/KA39WxQl5QE&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="560" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/KA39WxQl5QE&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed> </object> </p> <p style="text-align: left;">Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid isn't directly responsible for nonexistent congressional districts cropping up in Recovery.gov, but he certainly did pledge that the government would spend the money wisely and openly with great accountabilty. (HT: <a href="http://watchdog.org/2009/11/20/phantom-districts-take-to-the-campaign-trail/" target="_blank">Watchdog.org</a>.)</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2FmNzA2ODI5ZGY2M2E2NWQwYTI0YjFkZmEzYmE2NTE= Fri, 20 Nov 2009 12:25:15 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODExZDIzN2YyNWZlZjc3NDc0NzM3Nzk0OTMwZThkODM= The <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jF7SXGgu8OLW-FiUWbzInTE4pBEgD9C3CFO80" target="_blank">Senate Ethics Committee has</a> "found that [Illinois Sen. Roland] Burris's sworn affidavit and testimony before the Illinois House of Representatives as to how he was appointed were inconsistent, incomplete and misleading."</p> <p>Naturally, they have responded to this serious violation -- close to perjury, one would think -- with a letter of "Qualified Admonition." Apparently they thought a letter of reprimand would be too tough.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODExZDIzN2YyNWZlZjc3NDc0NzM3Nzk0OTMwZThkODM= Fri, 20 Nov 2009 12:15:40 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGY4NGMwZGI4Yzc1ZTJkN2FiNjAwZWRlOTE2N2M3MTE= <p class="MsoNormal"><span>We find ourselves dealing with the frightening realization that with the Obama administration, there is no Plan B.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>There are a lot of unemployed folks out there. A lot more are worried about their jobs, a lot more are wondering how they're going to pay their mortgages, their rent, their grocery bills. </span><span>Last year, when people first started to really worry, they elected Barack Obama to the presidency. Not my choice, but I hope he can make the situation better instead of worse.<br /></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Obama's first crack at improving the economy was the stimulus, and we’ve lost three million more jobs since it passed. Now he’s announcing a "jobs summit" at the White House, and a "<a href="http://www.mcall.com/news/all-a1_5obama.7088949nov17,0,3644508.story" target="_blank">listening tour</a>." You’ve officially run out of good ideas when your plan to help people who can’t find jobs consists of listening to them tell you that they can’t find jobs.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>If they had better ideas, the Obama administration would be trying those instead.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Looking back, it suddenly seems clear that <a href="http://michaelscomments.wordpress.com/2009/11/06/october-job-losses-accelerate-again-10-2/" target="_blank">Democrats thought we were in a slightly-worse-than-normal recession</a> and that we would have started to see unemployment begin to recede by now. Instead, by most measuring sticks, things are still bad, and perhaps getting worse -- the number of people working part-time when they would prefer full-time, the number of long-term unemployed, the number of people who have given up looking for work. Look at the industries that are still reeling from a serious blowup last year -- the financial sector, real estate, the auto industry, media, and publishing. I had no idea, until recently, that <a href="http://www.hbo.com/docs/programs/schmatta/index.html" target="_blank">the Garment District in midtown Manhattan</a> was rapidly disappearing.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>On Iran, the <a href="http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YzZmOWNhNTZiYTdiZTU2OTgzMzlhNmYxNGE5YjgzMDk=&w=MA==" target="_blank">Iranians keep making clear</a> that they don't want to talk and make a deal. On Afghanistan, the administration clearly thought the initial increase in troops would be sufficient; we've been in a holding pattern for three months while they rethink a warning from the commander on the ground that the situation will be lost within one year. China is willing to offer photo-ops, but no real concessions.<br /></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Polls show the nation evenly divided or worse on the health-care proposal, but the administration pushes forward. The Blue Dogs are nervous, but the response is to figure out how to get that magic 218; to heck with the 30-some Democrats who just can't be persuaded the bill is a good idea and will improve things.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>On front after front, Obama's proposals have slammed into the hard concrete of reality, and the response has been . . . keep doing the same thing and wait for things to get better.</span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGY4NGMwZGI4Yzc1ZTJkN2FiNjAwZWRlOTE2N2M3MTE= Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:36:42 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTgwNTljMzRlOWQzZTM2MzQxMTY0MWM3OThkNGU4Nzk= A few more aspiring Republican congressmen have made their bids official. In <a href="http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2009/11/19/former-isu-wrestling-coach-runs-for-congress/" target="_blank">Iowa</a>, former Iowa State University wrestling coach Jim Gibbons will run against Democrat Leonard Boswell.<br /><br />In <a href="http://www.austindailyherald.com/news/2009/nov/20/quist-makes-run-congress/">Minnesota</a>, Allen Quist, a "retired college teacher and rural farm owner -- who also served in the Minnesota House of Representatives from 1982 to 1988 -- announced Thursday that he will challenge DFL Rep. Tim Walz for his First District congressional seat."</p> <p>In <a href="http://www.connpost.com/ci_13826021" target="_blank">Connecticut</a>, "<span id="ctp_sitecss">former Bridgeport mayoral hopeful Rick Torres has joined the growing field of Republican contenders hoping to take on freshman Democratic U.S. Rep. Jim Himes for his seat in the 4th Congressional District next year."</span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTgwNTljMzRlOWQzZTM2MzQxMTY0MWM3OThkNGU4Nzk= Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:05:40 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWM5OTI3MzVlZjczMDg2ZTlmMDljN2M0ZTM5MTYxNDg= Robert Mackey of the <em>New York Times</em>, perhaps sensing the political gravity of concluding that we just witnessed the first mass-casualty attack of jihadist terrorists on American soil since 9/11, <a href="http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/20/define-terrorism/?hp" target="_blank">lays out the reasoning</a> as to why the Fort Hood shooter would not be considered terrrorism:</p> <blockquote> <p>While there are important differences between the soldiers killed at Fort Hood and the examples Mr. Walzer cited — they were filling out forms at a readiness center in Texas before deploying to Iraq or Afghanistan, and they were killed by a member of their own army — it is obviously true that soldiers getting ready to go to a war zone are not civilians or noncombatants.</p> </blockquote> <p>The <em>New York Time</em>s needs to read more about the shootings. <a href=" http://blogs.wsj.com/dispatch/2009/11/06/fort-hood-profiles-michael-grant-cahill/" target="_blank">One of the victims</a>, Michael Grant Cahill, was a civilian employee, a physician's assistant. Yes, he had served in the Army National Guard before working at Fort Hood. But as a doctor and as a civilian, he fits the definition of "non-combatant" under the <a href="http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3912/is_200610/ai_n17194871/" target="_blank">Geneva Conventions</a>.</p> <p>Aside from any other act, Hasan attacked and killed a civilian, making this fit quite easily under most definitions of terrorism.</p> <p>UPDATE: Readers note that the pregnant soldier offers another case where, in many eyes, Hasan killed an innocent civilian. Of course, to too many folks, that pregnant soldier represents only one casualty.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWM5OTI3MzVlZjczMDg2ZTlmMDljN2M0ZTM5MTYxNDg= Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:13:24 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDkzMzkyNzkwZDc4ZWIyM2RmMmM3OGI5MTEwNjdiNGM= Boy, you thought incumbents had a tough economic environment to campaign in this year? <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/19/AR2009111903885.html" target="_blank">Just wait until next year</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>More than 14 percent of borrowers were in trouble on their mortgage during the third quarter, a new record, according to an industry survey released Thursday, which also suggests that the foreclosure rate is likely not to peak until next year as unemployment rates continue to rise.</p> <p>Unemployment remains a big driver of the problem, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, which conducts the survey. Those with delinquent loans now include a growing portion of people traditionally considered creditworthy and people whose mortgages are insured by the Federal Housing Administration.</p> <p>"The outlook is that delinquency rates and foreclosure rates will continue to worsen before they improve," said Jay Brinkmann, the group's chief economist.</p> <p>About 9.6 percent of borrowers were delinquent on their mortgage during the third quarter, according to the survey, and another 4.5 percent more were somewhere in the foreclosure process. Overall, about 14 percent of mortgage loans or 7.4 million households were delinquent or in the foreclosure process during the quarter, according to the group.</p> <p>That is the highest level recorded by the survey, which has been conducted since 1972, and is up from about 10 percent of borrowers who were in trouble during the same period last year.</p> </blockquote> <p>The article notes that "if unemployment rates peak in the middle of next year, foreclosures could reach their highest levels by the end of next year." Boy, voters will be in a <em>delightful </em>mood come November, huh?</p> <p>Our old friend David Freddoso notes that members of Congress get <a href="http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/Your-congressman_s-padded-retirement-plan-8551967-70368302.html" target="_blank">astonishingly generous pensions</a>. Retirement is probably look pretty tempting next year, particularly when contrasted with getting thrown out of office by angry voters.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDkzMzkyNzkwZDc4ZWIyM2RmMmM3OGI5MTEwNjdiNGM= Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:32:22 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWRiOWI0Nzk0NjBjZWZkYTA5MzZiOTYzMDAyYWQxYjc= This Thanksgiving, you'll see public-service announcements about the importance of fitness for America's children, featuring NFL stars and a <a href="http://www.nola.com/health/index.ssf/2009/11/new_orleans_saints_drew_brees.html" target="_blank">skinny smoker</a>.</p> <p>Back in August, I noted that "when you're <a href="http://www.georgelopez.com/" target="_blank">cropping up in commercials for George Lopez's upcoming late-night talk show on TBS</a>, you're overexposed. This guy says 'no' less frequently than Mae West."</p> <p>Clearly, it never crossed the mind of anyone at the White House that Americans might like a Thanksgiving afternoon of watching the Detroit Lions lose without a 90-second call to go build a new playground from their Dear Leader.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWRiOWI0Nzk0NjBjZWZkYTA5MzZiOTYzMDAyYWQxYjc= Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:16:42 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmE1N2Q5NThhZWUzZTkwM2RjOGI2NDAyMzEyY2M5YTA= I have a feeling a lot of folks on the right will have a strange new respect for, or at least temporary agreement with, <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/11/19/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry5709415.shtml" target="_blank">Oregon Democrat Peter DeFazio</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Asked if Geithner should stay in his job, DeFazio said no. <br /><br />"Especially if you look back at the AIG scandal and Goldman [Sachs] and others who got their bets paid off in full," he said. "Instead of saying 'you bet, you lost,' they got paid back in full through AIG. We channeled the money through them." <br /><br />"Geithner would not answer my question when I said, 'Were those naked credit default swaps by Goldman or were they a counterparty?' He said 'I will not answer that question," added DeFazio. <br /><br />DeFazio said the Congressional Progressive Caucus is considering asking President Obama to remove Geithner. <br /><br />The president is "being failed by his economic team," he said. "Their total orientation is Wall Street, not Main Street."</p> </blockquote> <p>Okay, so DeFazio's argument is that the Obama economic plan is failing because Geithner is too oriented towards Wall Street, while those on the right would argue that it's failing because we're not spending money wisely, we're contemplating new taxes on energy, we're contemplating new costs to employers for health insurance, we're contemplating new taxes on income and investment, we're spending money like it's water, etc. But perhaps both sides can agree that there's got to be somebody out there who can do the Treasury job better than Geithner can.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmE1N2Q5NThhZWUzZTkwM2RjOGI2NDAyMzEyY2M5YTA= Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:04:45 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDZiNjRjMGFjMDk0MmZiZDQwYTE1ZjQ3YmY1YjhmZmQ= Sen. Claire McCaskill, via <a href="http://twitter.com/clairecmc/statuses/5871423094" target="_blank">Twitter</a>: "If we printed the health care bill in regular size font it would be same legnth [sic] as Sarah Palin's book, but with more meat on the bone."</p> <p>I guess this is a response to those who argue the bill is a gargantuan monstrosity.</p> <p>Fine, Palin's book is long, too. But everyone understands it (liberals, insert standard what-grade-reading-level joke here), and if you don't like it, you can ignore it and it will have no impact on your life. The health-care bill is written in legislative bureaucratese that is incomprehensible to most Americans, and the epic length is strongly suspected to be a method of hiding unpopular provisions that would never survive a straight up-or-down vote.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDZiNjRjMGFjMDk0MmZiZDQwYTE1ZjQ3YmY1YjhmZmQ= Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:50:29 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmRhYmUyNTZlZTNlYjAxNjU2MDczNDI2OWFhMzBhMzI= The answer is 46, 46, 48, 49.</p> <p>The <a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php" target="_blank">question is</a>, "What is President Obama's approval rating in the most recent Fox News-Opinion Dynamics poll, the most recent Rasmussen poll, the most recent Quinnipiac poll, and the most recent Public Policy Polling poll?"</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmRhYmUyNTZlZTNlYjAxNjU2MDczNDI2OWFhMzBhMzI= Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:25:00 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDRmNjY0N2FiOGM3MWZmODE0M2QxYzZkMTY0MDMwNDc= <div><span><span>Maria Comella, who was one of Rudy Giuliani's communications strategists during his presidential campaign, sends along the statement:</span></span></div> <blockquote> <div><span><span>Rudy has a history of making up his own mind and has no problem speaking it. When Mayor Giuliani makes a decision about serving in public office, he will inform New Yorkers on his own.</span></span></div> </blockquote> <div><span><span>For what it's worth, the <em>New York Daily News</em> says Rudy is <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2009/11/19/2009-11-19_former_mayor_rudy_giuliani_to_announce_plan_to_run_for_us_senate.html" target="_blank">running for Senate</a>, with an eye on another presidential run in 2012.</span></span></div> <div><br /></div> <div><span><span>I'm <a href="http://www.sing365.com/music/lyric.nsf/Do-Nothing-Till-You-Hear-From-Me-lyrics-Nat-King-Cole/65CC0FF1E7DD46C048256AF1000DC3B6" target="_blank">humming</a>:<br /></span></span></div> <div><br /></div> <div><em>Do nothing till you hear from me,<br />Pay no attention to what's said.<br />Why people tear the seams of anyone's dreams<br />Is over my head.</em></div><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDRmNjY0N2FiOGM3MWZmODE0M2QxYzZkMTY0MDMwNDc= Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:09:17 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2ZhMDZkNzAxMTYwNDdjYjMwMTViM2E5M2FhZjE4MzI= If current trends continue, then ten months from now, Marco Rubio will lead Charlie Crist by 33 percentage points in Florida's GOP Senate primary.</p> <p>Of course, the primary is <em>nine </em>months from now.</p> <p>But in January, Crist led Rubio in the Research2000 poll by a margin of 57 percent to 4 percent; now Crist leads Rubio 47 percent to 37 percent.</p> <p>Markos Moulitsas says <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/11/18/FL/417" target="_blank">the latest Research2000 poll</a> indicates that Crist should run as an independent.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2ZhMDZkNzAxMTYwNDdjYjMwMTViM2E5M2FhZjE4MzI= Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:05:44 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MGI5OGRlY2UxN2UzY2U1NmQ3ZDI0ZGNhMjNhZTIzNGQ= I just did a quick interview with Lou Dobbs on his radio program, discussing yesterday's hearings with Eric Holder.</p> <p>Hoping to get the host to offer a hint about his future plans, I began by jokingly noting that New Jersey senator Frank Lautenberg is looking rather aged; Dobbs noted that the state's other senator, Bob Menendez, isn't looking so great, either.</p> <p>The 85-year-old Lautenberg is not up for reelection until 2014; Menendez next faces the voters in 2012.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MGI5OGRlY2UxN2UzY2U1NmQ3ZDI0ZGNhMjNhZTIzNGQ= Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:49:43 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MmNmYTk0MzA4ZWU0NTZmZWVjMjQyMzdjYmU4OWQ3NjM= The <a href="http://www.cookpolitical.com/node/5445" target="_blank">Cook Political Report</a> lays out what readers of this blog have been hearing a lot lately:</p> <blockquote> <p><span>Plenty of veteran Democrats who haven't had to break a campaign sweat this decade are quickly losing their aura of invincibility. Next fall, some in this category are likelier to face tough races than many of the 42 less tenured Democrats who populate the "Frontline" list. As of today, eight House Democrats elected prior to 2006 sit in our "Lean Democratic" and "Toss Up" columns, and another 20 whom we view as potentially vulnerable sit in our "Likely Democratic" column.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>This is not to say that highly influential and venerated fixtures such as Reps. Ike Skelton (MO-04), John Spratt (SC-05), Bart Gordon (TN-06), John Tanner (TN-08) and Rick Boucher (VA-09) are goners next year. Their eventual vulnerability is highly dependent on the quality of GOP nominees and the discipline of their "time for change" messages. But if these party elders decide to seek reelection rather than retire, the underlying dynamics of their districts suggest at least several will need to fight to survive. <br /></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Many watchers of House politics are tempted to downplay the potential for real races in these districts after taking one look at immediate past election history. How could Republicans possibly threaten the likes of Skelton or Spratt, both of whom won more than 62 percent of the vote in 2008? Or Gordon, Tanner, or Boucher, all of whom were unopposed last year? But that was before they were saddled with a sitting Democratic president who is beyond radioactive in their districts. History is history.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Less than a year out from Election Day, it's time to rethink who the vulnerable Democrats are. And if President Obama is the dominant issue of the 2010 midterms (and rarely has a midterm not been a referendum on the incumbent president), Democrats ought to be seriously concerned about districts where reliable surveys suggest voters are in open revolt against him. Democrats would rather not draw attention to their problems in these districts, but both parties recognize the sea change underway.</span></p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Just how unpopular do you have to be, by the way, to be described as "beyond radioactive"?<br /></span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MmNmYTk0MzA4ZWU0NTZmZWVjMjQyMzdjYmU4OWQ3NjM= Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:34:23 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDhiMGY4NDJhNTI5ZmI4MDY4NzgxMTRkNDg3OWZlYzA= A reader notes, regarding the economy, even where it's not that bad, it's still pretty darn bad, <a href="http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_13818957" target="_blank">pointing to Utah</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>The growing ranks of the unemployed already have drained this year's budget of a state-administered program that provides new-job training to people whose old professions may not return when the recession ends.<br /><br />Employment counselors at the Utah Department of Workforce Services were informed last week that enrollment in a job-training program funded through the federal Workforce Investment Act (WIA) was being suspended for the rest of the fiscal year, which ends June 30, 2010.</p> </blockquote> <p>Utah's unemployment rate is 6.2 percent, <em>the fourth-best in the nation</em>.</p> <p>So, just to refresh, the economy continues to bleed jobs, and Recovery.gov is full of phony statistics about job creation in non-existent congressional districts; the administration's response is that it <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjM2MDE0YTc3MGIzNmQzZmVhNTVmNTRjZDlhOWM2MjY=" target="_blank">doesn't really matter</a>. This while government <a href="http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/11/13/us_government_deficit_hits_record_high/" target="_blank">spends money like never before</a>:</p> <div class="articlePluckHidden"> <blockquote> <p>The Treasury Department said yesterday that the deficit for October totaled $176.4 billion, the fifth-largest monthly deficit ever and the 13th straight month to show a deficit -- another record.</p> <p>The deficit for the 2009 budget year set an all-time record in dollar terms of $1.42 trillion. That was $958 billion above the 2008 deficit, the previous record.</p> </blockquote> </div> <p>The administration's plan on health care requires you to believe that unlike so many other programs, this one will cost less than expected.</p> <p>Our threat of "crippling sanctions" on Iran is <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN18121097" target="_blank">kaput</a>, the much-touted deadline amounting to nothing.</p> <p>The attorney general says that the court that Osama bin Laden would be tried in would depend on a "protocol" that he refuses to spell out.</p> <p>And we're still waiting for the president's response to a request for additional troops made in Afghanistan.</p> <p>Yes, Mr. President, you said it accurately: "The American people have gone though a very tough year."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDhiMGY4NDJhNTI5ZmI4MDY4NzgxMTRkNDg3OWZlYzA= Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:17:54 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmQ4MGY1Y2YzMTJmNzBmYjI4NTVhMmIxMTkzMzBkN2M= Rudy Giuliani is not running for governor, the <em>New York Times</em> reports.</p> <p>UPDATE: One more reason not to trust the <em>New York Times</em>; I am told by a reliable source close to Giuliani that this report about his decision comes as news to him. He is characterized by this reliable source as having not yet made his decision.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmQ4MGY1Y2YzMTJmNzBmYjI4NTVhMmIxMTkzMzBkN2M= Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:14:23 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZWQ1NTNhOTkxZmY3OTA0ZjEzYzMxZGU1YjM4NTBiY2M= <a href="http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_1119.pdf" target="_blank">Public Policy Polling</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Overall 49 percent of voters express approval of Obama’s work with 46 percent disapproving. He has the support of 83 percent of Democrats, 47 percent of independents, and 10 percent of Republicans.</p> </blockquote> <p>Other results from PPP:</p> <blockquote> <p>Hurting Obama’s overall reviews is that for the first time in our polling we find a majority of Americans opposed to his health care plan. 40% say they support it with 52% opposed, including 58% of independents.</p> <p>“This is the first time President Obama’s approval rating has dropped below 50% in our polling,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It does seem that the health care issue is hurting him some with independents who voted for him last year.”</p> <p>The poll also found that 26% of Americans think ACORN stole the election for Obama last year, including 52% of Republicans. Overall 11% view the organization favorably while 53% have a negative opinion of it.</p> </blockquote> <p>I would note that if you really sat down and asked Republicans about their views, less than 52 percent would say that ACORN is responsible for the 6-percentage-point, 9 million-or-so-vote margin in Obama's election. I suspect that answer is akin to, "they're all a bunch of crooks, and I wouldn't put anything past them."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZWQ1NTNhOTkxZmY3OTA0ZjEzYzMxZGU1YjM4NTBiY2M= Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:08:15 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzFlNjAxMzg4YjQ3NmNmYTM5ZjAyN2MzMzNkOGQ1NzA= <p class="MsoNormal">During the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs hearing this morning, the RAND Corporation's Brian Jenkins offered a statement as to why the Fort Hood shooting, and the analysis of just what motivated Malik Hasan, weighs so heavily on Washington: “We’ve had eight attempted attacks [in U.S.], plus two successful ones in Arkansas and Fort Hood. Many more than previous years.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">You may be shaking your head upon hearing Fort Hood would be the <em>second </em>jihadist or terrorist attack of the year; Jenkins was including <span>Abdulhakim Muhammad, who is accused of killing Pvt. William Long of and injuring Pvt. Quinton Ezeagwula in a shooting outside the Army/Navy recruiting center in Little Rock, Arkansas.  He faces 17 felony charges, including capital murder.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>The Little Rock recruitment center shooter’s philosophy is, <a href="http://www.fox16.com/news/local/story/UPDATE-Muhammad-tells-AP-soldiers-need-to-get-out/aiNrzA0_XU6-Q5IZXv4yUw.cspx">in retrospect,</a> a chilling match to the alleged views of Hasan: “A battlefield is anywhere we see you at.  And those people in the Army and those families of the people in the Army and the military and personnel all over the country, if you don't want to die or get shot for this so called war on terrorism, war on Islam, then get out of the Army.  Get out of the Army and don't walk, run."</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">When people hear the word “terrorism,” they usually think of 9/11 or bombs going off like in London or Madrid. A shooting rampage is, fairly or not, considered garden-variety crime or mayhem by the homicidally maniacal. While the aim of the Columbine shooters was to inspire terror, few think of them as terrorists.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">So perhaps we should shift to discussing <em>jihadist </em>terrorism, and recognize that it increasingly looks like Hasan was the biggest act of jihadist terrorism on American soil since 9/11, the first mass-casualty event within our borders scored by their side in this war in more than eight years.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">I say biggest, but not first. Daniel Pipes coined the term “<a href="http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2008/01/sudden-jihad-syndrome-its-now-official">Sudden Jihad Syndrome</a>,” whereby normal-appearing Muslims abruptly become violent, and describes other incidents that, due to thankfully low or no fatalities, barely registered in the public consciousness: At UNC-Chapel Hill, an Iranian immigrant drove a sport-utility vehicle into a crowded pedestrian zone; on July 4, 2002 somebody <a href="http://archives.cnn.com/2002/US/07/04/la.airport.shooting/" target="_blank">shot up the El Al counter at LAX</a> in an event the FBI helpfully insisted was not terrorism. In January of 2002, some troubled teen <a href="http://www.sptimes.com/2002/01/06/TampaBay/Plane_hits_skyscraper.shtml" target="_blank">crashed a small plane into a Tampa skyscraper</a>, in another event we were reassured wasn't terrorism, even though the teen said he <a href="http://archives.cnn.com/2002/US/01/06/tampa.crash/index.html">sympathized with Osama bin Laden</a>.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">But these events were largely one-day or two-day stories; they generally didn’t inspire a widespread sense of “we’ve been hit again.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Fort Hood may be different. Retired general John M. Keane, former vice chief of staff of the U.S. Army, casually remarked during the hearing that the “preliminary evidence” was that the motivation was jihadism, not mental illness.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">And if the public concludes that Hasan was motivated by the same radical ideology as Mohammed Atta, it means the jihadist threat to Americans at home is still out there, and that our government is not achieving job one: protecting the American people. Health care, stimulus funds, cap-and-trade -- none of that means a darn thing if you’re worried that some guy is going to shoot up your workplace, or a shopping mall, or God forbid, some school because he secretly thinks he’s at war with you.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">If American had been enduring a “24” scenario of bombs going off in the streets on a regular basis in 2008, Barack Obama would not have become president. He did not campaign as a wartime president. Now that he is in office, we are told by his cabinet that we are in an era of “man-caused disasters” and “overseas contingency operations.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">President Obama may have wanted to turn the page on the old era of the war on terror. Too bad the jihadists didn’t agree.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzFlNjAxMzg4YjQ3NmNmYTM5ZjAyN2MzMzNkOGQ1NzA= Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:52:46 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTUyZjQ0OGUyZDAzYTQ4NmM4MTM0MDAwZmUyNjNlZTU= Wow. <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/jan/02/sudden-jihad-syndrome-poses-domestic-risk/" target="_blank">An eerily prescient report</a>, dated from Dec. 6, 2007, from the Texas Public Safety Department's Bureau of Information Analysis:</p> <blockquote> <p>"Oftentimes, these attackers are dismissed as suffering from mental health issues, but their own words and writings reveal an affiliation with Islamic supremacy or an affinity for Islamic extremism," said the report, which was distributed to federal, state and local law enforcement in Texas. "As a result, law enforcement should not be too quick to judge their attacks as having no nexus to terrorism."</p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTUyZjQ0OGUyZDAzYTQ4NmM4MTM0MDAwZmUyNjNlZTU= Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:35:33 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjlhNGYyNmQyNDQwYjVjODJmYjc0ODJhNDNjZGZkNmY= I did not expect this result, <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/california/election_2010_california_governor_election" target="_blank">or at least not this soon</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>State Attorney General Jerry Brown is the only major Democrat still running for governor of California next year, and now he’s tied with Republican hopeful Meg Whitman at 41% each in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">Rasmussen found that in hypothetical match-ups, state insurance commissioner Steve Poizner trails Brown by 11 and Tom Campbell, an ex-congressman and former state finance director, trails by 9.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjlhNGYyNmQyNDQwYjVjODJmYjc0ODJhNDNjZGZkNmY= Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:11:03 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTg2YmNlMjIwZTlhNmIxYjlkYTk4MTY1N2FhYTY1ODc= Mitchell Silber, director of intelligence analysis for the New York City police department, before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs a moment ago: "The threat is now increasingly from within," regarding home-grown, self-radicalized terrorists.</p> <p>He concludes:</p> <blockquote> <p>The al-Qaeda threat to the homeland is no longer confined to al-Qaeda core <br />. . . most recently, the home-grown, self-radicalized operatives who have no operational relationship with al-Qaeda's core, who utilize al-Qaeda's ideology <br />for action.</p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTg2YmNlMjIwZTlhNmIxYjlkYTk4MTY1N2FhYTY1ODc= Thu, 19 Nov 2009 10:50:30 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjM2MDE0YTc3MGIzNmQzZmVhNTVmNTRjZDlhOWM2MjY= The White House spin on all those jobs going to non-existent congressional districts, <a href="http://www.politico.com/playbook/1109/playbook869.html">as quoted by <em>Politico</em></a>: "In the end, the data debate is frustrating, but a side show: the American people care a lot more about our success in creating jobs than our precision in counting them."</p> <p>Hey, pal, right now the score on both fronts is pretty lousy. Or has the 10.2 percent unemployment rate, and 3 million jobs lost since the stimulus passed, completely escaped your attention?</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjM2MDE0YTc3MGIzNmQzZmVhNTVmNTRjZDlhOWM2MjY= Thu, 19 Nov 2009 10:17:35 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTc1NGY1M2JiM2QxOTA3OWJlYjk1ZGNlZmMyNTFkMjY= Percentage of independents who approve of Pres. Barack Obama, who made history, is <a href="http://newsbusters.org/blogs/kyle-drennen/2009/06/05/newsweek-s-evan-thomas-obama-sort-god" target="_blank">"sort of God"</a> according to one <em>Newsweek </em>editor, won the Nobel Peace Prize, and is continuing his efforts to heal the sick and prevent the oceans from rising: <strong>43 percent</strong>, <a href="http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1397" target="_blank">according to Quinnipiac</a>.</p> <p>Percentage of independents who approve of Vice Pres. Joe Biden, who the cover of <em>Newsweek </em>assures us is <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/id/217090" target="_blank">not a joke</a>: <strong>42 percent</strong>, <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/123860/Vice-President-Biden-Favorable-Rating-Continues-Decline.aspx" target="_blank">according to Gallup</a>.</p> <p>Percentage of independents who approve of laughable joke of a former governor who must be depicted in running shorts on the cover of <em>Newsweek</em>, and declared <a href="http://womensissues.about.com/b/2009/11/18/newsweeks-sarah-palin-cover-how-do-you-solve-a-problem-like-sexism.htm" target="_blank">a "problem" that must be "solved,"</a> even though this technically makes her Maria in <em>The Sound of Music</em> and thus one of the good guys: <strong>41 percent</strong>, <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704576204574529770560352200.html?mod=djemEditorialPage" target="_blank">according to Gallup</a>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTc1NGY1M2JiM2QxOTA3OWJlYjk1ZGNlZmMyNTFkMjY= Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:47:54 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDUyNTcwNTZhZDAyYTM4NTc5ZTVhYzI4YTVlZGRlMDg= For what it's worth, New Jersey Republicans tell me they're not too worried about the rumor that Democrats might try to force Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D., Bygone Era) to retire and have outgoing governor Jon Corzine fill his seat. No countermoves are on the drawing board, I'm told.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDUyNTcwNTZhZDAyYTM4NTc5ZTVhYzI4YTVlZGRlMDg= Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:22:43 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTBkMjgzNWI4ZjAzNjE1OWQ1MzM1OTllOGRjYTg0ZDI= With great trepidation, I tread again into the California GOP Senate primary, knowing that every post on the subject will inevitably trigger back-and-forth volleys . . .</p> <p>The Chuck DeVore camp is determined to set its primary-race storyline as a classic "genuine conservative vs. mushy moderate" matchup, with their guy in the Pat Toomey/Marco Rubio role. When a batch of senators endorsed Fiorina, they chuckled at the support from <span><span>a murderer's row of some of conservatives' least favorite senators: Susan Collins and </span></span><span><span>Olympia Snowe</span></span><span><span> of Maine, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, and others who have irked the conservative grassroots from time to time: </span></span><span><span>Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, </span></span><span><span>John McCain of Arizona, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.<br /><br /></span></span><span><span>But Fiorina's picking up support from some pretty darn conservative senators, too: Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, Jon Kyl of Arizona, and now, </span></span><span><span>Oklahoma's other senator, James W. Inhofe. </span></span></p> <p>DeVore has <a href="http://www.chuckdevore.com/inner.asp?z=28" target="_blank">fewer endorsements, but perhaps ones</a> that might carry more weight: Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina, Rep. Tom McClintock, and, they contend, almost 60 percent of California's elected Republican leadership.</p> <p>UPDATE: Team DeVore notes Fred Davis, who heads Fiorina's online presence, is Senator Inhofe's nephew.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTBkMjgzNWI4ZjAzNjE1OWQ1MzM1OTllOGRjYTg0ZDI= Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:15:19 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWE4YTU2NjU0NTcxYmRhODg3OTY2YTgwYTBiNWM0NjM= <span style="-small;"><span>One of my readers dined last night with a high-level Republican tracking the 2010 races closely. This high-level Republican, asked about the outlook for next year's House races, said that he believes if nothing changes, the Republicans will gain 20 to 22 seats in the House; with money and candidates, 35 to 40 seats.</span></span></p> <p><span style="-small;"><span>With the House currently consisting of 258 Democrats and 177 Republicans, the GOP would need to gain 41 seats to control the chamber. (Having said that, if the GOP gained 30-something seats, it would not be surprising to see whatever conservative or Blue Dog Democrats remain contemplate changing parties, as a few Democratic lawmakers did in 1994.)<br /></span></span></p> <p><span style="-small;"><span>(Note that earlier in the week, the head of the NRCC said the GOP had 65 top-tier challengers, with a few of those competing against each other, so the number of incumbent Democrats or open seats with "top-tier" GOP candidates is in the high 50s or 60.)</span></span></p> <p><span style="-small;"><span>Interesting that this high-level Republican mentioned money, as <a href="http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2009/11/rnc-reporting-oct-haul-of-89m-off-year-one-month-record.html" target="_blank">news is breaking that the RNC just</a> "raised </span></span>$8.79 million in October, in what party officials say sets a new one-month record for the party in an off-cycle year."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWE4YTU2NjU0NTcxYmRhODg3OTY2YTgwYTBiNWM0NjM= Thu, 19 Nov 2009 08:41:14 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTFmYWJkMjMzYjA4OTIwZGMxNTRhNWQ1YTNhODNhM2Y= Today the <a href="http://www.deathpenalty.org/article.php?id=307" target="_blank">personal opponent of the death penalty</a> who serves as attorney general pledged that he will seek the death penalty for KSM.</p> <p>Oh, <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/news/ny_crime/2009/11/18/2009-11-18_the_execution_question_tough_job_for_mohammed_prosecutors_to_win_death.html#ixzz0XFBSEUQU" target="_blank">by the way</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>In the feds' few past tries at the death penalty for foreign terrorists, they lost. And New York juries are seen as among the least likely to agree -- unanimously, as the law requires -- on execution . . . The last time a Manhattan federal jury faced such a choice was July 2001. It spared two men convicted in the 1998 bombings of two U.S. embassies in Africa, which killed 224 people. Seven of 12 jurors decided that, if executed, one defendant "will be seen as a martyr and his death may be exploited by others to justify future terrorist acts."</p> </blockquote> <p>Well, good to see that effort helped ensure no further terrorist attacks in Manhattan in 2001.</p> <p>UPDATE: If you felt strongly that KSM should not be executed, but didn't want to take the heat for not seeking the death penalty, wouldn't your best option be to try him in federal court in Manhattan?</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTFmYWJkMjMzYjA4OTIwZGMxNTRhNWQ1YTNhODNhM2Y= Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:13:40 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmViZGRjNGE3YmJmOGIyNGM2MzViOGUxY2JiNjc0ZWU= Just to clarify, today before the Senate Judiciary Committee, a man who <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2009/jan/09/nation/na-holder9" target="_blank">pushed for reduced sentences for 16 terrorists</a> and prosecuted <em>none </em>dismissed the assessment of a man who has <a href="http://www.defenddemocracy.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=23928&Itemid=283" target="_blank">prosecuted at least 14</a> and pushed for a pardon of <em>none </em>as <span>"polemics" and "fodder for the talk shows."</span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmViZGRjNGE3YmJmOGIyNGM2MzViOGUxY2JiNjc0ZWU= Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:02:13 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTY3ZmMyOTEzY2JjMTJiYWQ4NjJlMTZjZjA1ZDcyYWY= Boy, even President Obama's <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Closure_Of_Guantanamo_Detention_Facilities" target="_blank">executive orders come with expiration dates</a>. In January, Obama wrote, "<span>The detention facilities at Guantánamo for individuals covered by this order shall be closed as soon as practicable, and no later than one year from the date of this order."</span></p> <p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/19/us/19gitmo.html" target="_blank">Today he tells NBC</a>, "Guantánamo, we had a specific deadline that was missed."</p> <p>Just think, last night I was telling Larry Kudlow that the American people might grow tired of eloquent but unfulfilled promises.</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="400" height="380" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="id" value="cnbcplayer" /> <param name="type" value="application/x-shockwave-flash" /> <param name="allowfullscreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="quality" value="best" /> <param name="scale" value="noscale" /> <param name="wmode" value="transparent" /> <param name="bgcolor" value="#000000" /> <param name="salign" value="lt" /> <param name="src" value="http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/1334556056/code/cnbcplayershare" /><embed id="cnbcplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="400" height="380" src="http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/1334556056/code/cnbcplayershare" salign="lt" bgcolor="#000000" wmode="transparent" scale="noscale" quality="best" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed> </object> </p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTY3ZmMyOTEzY2JjMTJiYWQ4NjJlMTZjZjA1ZDcyYWY= Wed, 18 Nov 2009 13:07:40 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OGRiYTdiOWM5MzNlOTcxMzY1MDAxYTQ4YjU5YzI2N2Y= <a href="http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MO_1118.pdf" target="_blank">I still like Blunt's chances</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>When Public Policy Polling first looked at the open Senate seat in Missouri in January Robin Carnahan led Roy Blunt 45-44. Fast forward ten months and the race has hardly changed at all, with Carnahan now up 43-42.</p> </blockquote> <p>Blunt has a 44-32 lead among independent voters.</p> <p>PPP finds that 58 percent of Missouri voters have a negative opinion of Democrats in Congress.</p> <p>Last year, President Obama came very close to winning Missouri; today, PPP finds his approval rating at 43 percent, his disapproval rating at 52 percent. They find 34 percent like his health-care plan, 55 percent oppose it.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OGRiYTdiOWM5MzNlOTcxMzY1MDAxYTQ4YjU5YzI2N2Y= Wed, 18 Nov 2009 12:43:13 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2MxMTIwOTFmZWQ2MmYyZjJjZjRmOGI3YzQwMDA0NDQ= <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Matt Yglesias <a href="http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/archives/2009/11/criminals-and-warriors.php">writes</a>:</span></p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">In political terms, the right likes the war idea because it involves taking terrorism more "seriously." But in doing so, you partake of way too much of the terrorists’ narrative about themselves. It’s <em><span style="font-family: ">their</span></em> conceit, after all, that blowing up a bomb in a train station and killing a few hundred random commuters is an act of war.</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>A letter to the editor in today’s <em>Washington Post</em> says:</span></p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>The Sept. 11 atrocities were monstrous, unforgivable, evil, and warlike. But to insist they were literally "acts of war" is linguistically to confer statehood or national sovereignty on al-Qaeda. It’s right to respond to such acts, but the perpetrators are an enormous criminal conspiracy, not a nation, no more than drug cartels and organized crime are.</span></p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>(The letter is not online, as a far as I can tell.)<br /><br /></span><span>Let’s put aside, for a moment, that folks who most likely applauded the "War on Poverty" are now arguing that we have to be careful not to misapply the term “war” when referring to the use of hijacked airliners, box-cutters, guns, explosives, and the like to kill many many people. It is undoubtedly tempting to decide that a QED manner of sorting out these issues is to conclude war is solely the tool of nation-states, and that anybody else is just a great big criminal gang. While Eric Holder said today that he knows this nation is at war, he apparently believes it is best to treat KSM and others as criminals, and their acts as crimes, not an act of war.<br /><br /></span><span>But if war can only be fought by nations, who did Great Britain fight in the Revolutionary War? Any war of seccession begins with one side whose sovereignty and statehood is in doubt or disputed.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Beyond that, some of these folks should take a look at the world outside their windows once in a while. Nation-on-nation war is thankfully rarer, but that doesn’t mean war has stopped. The line between terror group and government is awfully blurry some days. Hamas runs the West Bank. Somali pirates aren’t a government in most senses of the word, but they’re claiming the horn of Africa and have lots of weapons and now a revenue stream. The Taliban isn’t a government any more, but they control territory. Who runs the territory immediately south of our border, the Mexican government<span>  </span>or the cartels? (Who’s got more firepower?) Why would Iran send, say, its own commandos to do some dirty deed when they’ve got Hezbollah and Hamas as proxies? When Russia invaded Georgia, that country’s cyber-infrastructure was attacked -- with some indication that Russian citizens, <em>not </em>directed by their government, <a href="http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2008/08/experts-debate.html">were behind the hack attacks</a>.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Clausewitz wrote that </span>"war is a continuation of politics by other means." <span>Now <em>war </em>is war by other means. (And it’s not just the bad guys; we’ve got military contractors all over the world, a semi-quasi-extension of U.S. military force. They're assigned tasks by the United States government and paid to achieve them, but they're not part of the government.)<br /><br /></span><span>I realize I’m <a href="http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ZWQwNTE2OWM2YjEwMWQzNTM4OTMzZGVhOWM0NDUxOGQ=" target="_blank">largely echoing Mark Steyn</a>:</span></p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">As it happens, Somali piracy is not a distraction, but a glimpse of the world the day after tomorrow. . . . Half a century back, Somaliland was a couple of sleepy colonies, British and Italian, poor but functioning. Then it became a state, and then a failed state, and now the husk of a nation is a convenient squat from which to make mischief. . . . It’s also a low-risk one. Once upon a time we killed and captured pirates. Today, it’s all more complicated. The attorney general, Eric Holder, has declined to say whether the kidnappers of the American captain will be "brought to justice" by the U.S. "I’m not sure exactly what would happen next," declares the chief law-enforcement official of the world’s superpower. . . . Meanwhile, the Royal Navy, which over the centuries did more than anyone to rid the civilized world of the menace of piracy, now declines even to risk capturing their Somali successors, having been advised by Her Majesty’s Government that, under the European Human Rights Act, any pirate taken into custody would be entitled to claim refugee status in the United Kingdom and live on welfare for the rest of his life.</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">The idea that only a nation can fight a war is a lovely, quaint notion that stopped being relevant a while ago. For better or worse -- eh, who are we kidding, it’s worse -- the world of the near future is one where proxy groups, with their delightful veneer of plausible deniability, are the primary tool of conflict, asymmetrical warfare is standard operating procedure, and civilians are targeted more than military personnel (much easier to hit, and rarely shoot back).</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Nation-states are increasingly paralyzed by bureaucratic inertia and pressures of public opinion, while small militias, transnational groups, and other non<span>-</span>nation-state actors are increasingly empowered to pursue their goals with ruthless manners and wild abandon.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">We're going to see a lot more individuals and groups pursuing their goals through bombs, bullets, and hijackings and expressing no interest in wearing uniforms. The rallying cry "Legally, it's not an act of war, it's just a crime" is not going to do much to console the wounded and the victims' families.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2MxMTIwOTFmZWQ2MmYyZjJjZjRmOGI3YzQwMDA0NDQ= Wed, 18 Nov 2009 12:21:03 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmQ1NjE5NTg5Y2ZiNTcwMTlhYWU5MzFiMjg4NDRiOTk= <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Sen. Jon Kyl (R., Ariz.) unloads on the attorney general: "How could you be more likely to get a conviction in a civilian court than in a military court when Khalid Sheik Mohammad has already pled guilty and asked for the death penalty before a military commission?"<br /></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>There is applause, and Chairman Leahy calls for order. Kyl concurs.<br /></span></p> <p><span>Eric Holder: The best place to try these cases is not subject to the whims of Khalid Sheik Mohammad.</span></p> <p><span>Kyl reiterates, and asks, you would think this played into your decision, right?<br /></span></p> <p><span>Holder says he does not know if Khalid Sheik Mohammad still has that position, and posits that Kyl does not know if that is still his position. "He will not select the prosecution venue; I will."</span></p> <p><span>Holder: "It's not a question of where I think we can get the easiest conviction, it's a question of the protocol that exists."</span></p> <p><span>Kyl cites an article by NRO's Andy McCarthy; Holder dismisses it as "polemics" and "fodder for the talk shows."</span></p> <p><span>UPDATE: Andy McCarthy offers his compelling and detailed reaction, <a href="http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTE3ZGUzYzc5NzI2OWYxMWFlMjVhNDk3M2Q0YTlmMzk=" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmQ1NjE5NTg5Y2ZiNTcwMTlhYWU5MzFiMjg4NDRiOTk= Wed, 18 Nov 2009 11:09:48 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDVlMjZkYmFkNDQ4ZmUxOThhZWQ3ZDBhMGY0Y2FjNTU= <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Sen. Charles Grassley (R., Iowa): “I don’t think you can say that failure to convict is not an option, when we have juries in this country.”</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Attorney General Eric Holder: I have thought about that possibility. Congress has passed legislation that would not allow the release of these individuals in this country. If there is not a successful conclusion to this trial, that would not mean that this person would be released into this country . . . </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Grassley: My understanding is that if for some reason he’s not convicted, or a judge lets him off on a technicality, he’ll be an enemy combatant, so you’re right back where you started.</span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDVlMjZkYmFkNDQ4ZmUxOThhZWQ3ZDBhMGY0Y2FjNTU= Wed, 18 Nov 2009 10:51:40 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDg3ZGYyZDNlNTZhZTA3ODg0ZjI0NzY0N2Y0YzQxNjY= <a href="http://www.app.com/article/20091117/NEWS/911170349/1070/NEWS02" target="_blank">Good news</a>, if you're hoping former Philadelphia Eagles all-pro tackle Jon Runyan runs against Rep. John Adler in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district: A potential primary rival, State Sen. Christopher J. Connors (R., Ocean), said he is "not likely" to run for Congress.</p> <p>A local GOP official says he thinks Runyan will decide in the next three or four weeks.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDg3ZGYyZDNlNTZhZTA3ODg0ZjI0NzY0N2Y0YzQxNjY= Wed, 18 Nov 2009 10:38:15 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDY4OTk4OTRhNjUxZWIwZDkwMTUxMjdhYzNmYTZiOTA= <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Attorney General Eric Holder, before the Senate Judiciary Committee, right now: “The decision was based on information I know, that frankly, some of the people criticizing the decision don’t have access to.”</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>He adds, “There was not a poltical component to my decision.”</span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDY4OTk4OTRhNjUxZWIwZDkwMTUxMjdhYzNmYTZiOTA= Wed, 18 Nov 2009 10:18:26 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWZlOGJiNDdmMmJjZDcwYjM2ZDI0OTY5ZGZiMTFhNTM= <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Attorney General Eric Holder:</span></p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>I knew this decision would be a controversial one. It was a tough call. Reasonable people can disagree with my decision. . . .</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>I am a prosecutor. My aim is to select the venue where the government will have the greatest opportunity to present the best case . . . The venue where we are most likely to obtain justice for the American people is in federal court. . . .</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>We know we can prosecute terrorists in our federal courts safely and securely because we have been doing so for years. . . .</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>We can protect classified information during trial. . . .</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>Khalid Sheik Mohammad will have no more of a venue to spew his ideology in a federal court than he would in a military commission. . . .</span></p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>There is nothing common about the treatement of Khalid Sheik Mohammad, and I will direct prosecutors to seek the most uncommon penalty.</span></p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWZlOGJiNDdmMmJjZDcwYjM2ZDI0OTY5ZGZiMTFhNTM= Wed, 18 Nov 2009 09:59:19 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmE3OTg4YjY1MzBiOWY1ZWE5YjdkMTY0NTIyYzk3Y2U= During the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on trying KSM and other al-Qaeda terrorists, Chairman Patrick Leahy just made a reference to the "so-called blind sheik trial."</p> <p>Is there any dispute that Omar Abdel Rahman is a blind sheik?</p> <p>Mary Katherine Ham noted that Leahy said the detainees "committed murder," which, if their guilt is already established or if the verdict is predetermined, raises the question of why we're having a trial.</p> <p>UPDATED: Sen. Jeff Sessions, the ranking minority member on the committee: "The U.S. court system was not designed to try unlawful enemy combatants . . . These are not normal defendants . . . The enemy that could have been blown to bits one day and is captured the next does not then become a common American criminal."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmE3OTg4YjY1MzBiOWY1ZWE5YjdkMTY0NTIyYzk3Y2U= Wed, 18 Nov 2009 09:41:28 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDI0M2JiM2Y0NGZjZGI5ZDIyNzEwMWUwY2VjYzMwYjk= I presume this destination selection is deliberate, but it just seems to underline recurring, long-unsolved problems: Pres. Barack Obama will be in Allentown, Pa., next month to kick off the "White House to Main Street Tour."</p> <p>We can guess <a href="http://www.sing365.com/music/lyric.nsf/Allentown-lyrics-Billy-Joel/0AE8791D80B8FC4948256870001C98F3" target="_blank">the theme music</a> for the event, right?</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Well we're living here in Allentown<br />And they're closing all the factories down<br />Out in Bethlehem they're killing time<br />Filling out forms<br />Standing in line.<br /><br />Well our fathers fought the Second World War<br />Spent their weekends on the Jersey Shore<br />Met our mothers at the USO<br />Asked them to dance<br />Danced with them slow<br />And we're living here in Allentown.<br /><br />But the restlessness was handed down<br />And it's getting very hard to staaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay<br />aaaaaaah aaahhhhh ooooooooh ooooooh ohhhhhhh.<br /><br />Well we're waiting here in Allentown<br />For the Pennsylvania we never found<br />For the promises our teachers gave<br />If we worked hard<br />If we behaved.<br /><br />So the graduations hang on the wall<br />But they never really helped us at all<br />No they never taught us what was real<br />Iron or coke,<br />Chromium steel.<br /><br />And we're waiting here in Allentown.<br />But they've taken all the coal from the ground<br />And the union people crawled awaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay<br />aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah aaaaaaaaaaah aaaaaah.</em></p> </blockquote> <p>Even Peggy Sawyer had to leave Allentown to find a job.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDI0M2JiM2Y0NGZjZGI5ZDIyNzEwMWUwY2VjYzMwYjk= Wed, 18 Nov 2009 09:14:25 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTA2MGQ4OTYyNmU5NzFiZjNmZTZmNjdiZjMxOWE1YTI= Last week, Hugh Hewitt was <a href="http://www.hughhewitt.com/blog/g/048bf1cf-b3d1-4cf1-8474-decf7de7d8d8" target="_blank">up in arms</a>, irked that the NRCC had not organized a special effort to help out GOP challengers against vulnerable House Democrats who voted for the health-care bill, despite deep concerns in their districts.</p> <p>The NRCC had it in the works; last night they unveiled, "<a href="http://www.reversethevote.org/dems.html" target="_blank">Reverse The Vote</a>," a special effort targeting 24 Democrats who voted "yes" and who should have voted the other way.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTA2MGQ4OTYyNmU5NzFiZjNmZTZmNjdiZjMxOWE1YTI= Wed, 18 Nov 2009 09:08:04 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTQ1ZjNlNzBhM2QwMWUyMjY2MzZjYWZjZDc1OTI5NDk= Three thoughts about Sarah Palin's future spurred by last night's appearance on Larry Kudlow . . .</p> <p>1) While she's currently denying interest in running for president in 2012, the prospect may look more tempting in the not-too-distant future. What's more, she probably realizes that if she doesn't run, events will play out -- a second term for Obama? President Romney/ Pawlenty/Daniels? -- and she may find herself looking back and wondering how the campaign would have been different if she had run. Could she have beaten Obama? (Yes, I can hear you screaming how certain you are about the answer to that question.) Or if some other Republican wins in 2012, will she wonder whether she declined to run in a great year for Republicans, when backlash against the events of Obama's first term carried a more generic GOP candidate all the way to the top?</p> <p>If she doesn't run, she may look back and regret it. If she runs, she will know, with absolute certainty, whether or not she could have won.</p> <p>In light of this, and her instinctive rule-breaking, risk-taking nature (her <em>maverick</em>-ness!), wouldn't we expect her to dip her toe into the water and at least create an exploratory committee?</p> <p>2) Barring some sudden turnaround in the economy, or President Obama suddenly announcing the capture of Osama bin Laden or some other unexpected event, 2010 will be a good Republican year, maybe a great one. In the coming year, Palin will almost certainly be out on the trail, appearing at fundraisers and rallies for GOP candidates.</p> <p>If, by November 2010, she can declare that, say, 20 out of the 25 candidates she campaigned for went on to victory, wouldn't that make her more likely to think she could win a presidential race?</p> <p>3) The first thing Palin skeptics point to is her current poll numbers -- the number of Americans who think she's not qualified, has insufficent experience, who say they absolutely wouldn't vote for her, etc. Indeed, if the next presidential election were held in the coming year, she would lose, and probably lose badly.</p> <p>But Americans are already changing their minds about the joys of a Democratic president and a heavily Democratic Congress. Americans aren't as high on Obama as they used to be, less confident in his ability to handle the economy and health care, not enthused about closing Guantanamo Bay, not all that eager to see KSM on trial in New York City, etc. In other words, events are forcing Americans to rethink the conclusions they drew in late 2008.</p> <p>If they can reconsider Obama, there's no reason to think the public can't reconsider their early impressions of Palin.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTQ1ZjNlNzBhM2QwMWUyMjY2MzZjYWZjZDc1OTI5NDk= Wed, 18 Nov 2009 08:00:06 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzdiMTFkNGU1ZmViZmFiODUwMGM2MmViZDA4OTY0MzI= I'm scheduled to talk about yesterday's piece on <a href="http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OTA2YTdiZDU0NzRmNzkxMjUzMmEyY2M0ZTkxY2FhNTg=" target="_blank">Sarah Palin the rule-breaker</a> on the second half of <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15838446" target="_blank">Larry Kudlow's show on CNBC</a> this evening.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzdiMTFkNGU1ZmViZmFiODUwMGM2MmViZDA4OTY0MzI= Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:48:55 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODUzNzg5NDY2NTQzYWQ1YzdkNGJkYjliMGU1Y2EyNmY= When <a href="http://www.pollster.com/blogs/ar_2010_sen_pccc_102728.php" target="_blank">last we checked in Arkansas</a>, Sen. Blanche Lincoln was ahead by the smallest of margins against two relatively little-known GOP challengers. Now both those challengers have web sites -- entrepreneur <a href="http://curtiscoleman.com/" target="_blank">Curtis Coleman</a> and State Sen. <a href="http://www.senatorgilbertbaker.com/" target="_blank">Gilbert Baker</a>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODUzNzg5NDY2NTQzYWQ1YzdkNGJkYjliMGU1Y2EyNmY= Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:36:33 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWFiZTI3MDMxZDlhYjk1N2QyYWZkODhiNjQzODM3YzU= Well, here's <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/16/AR2009111603636.html" target="_blank">one new job that we can genuinely attribute to President Obama's decision making</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Thursday, the CIA's general counsel, Stephen W. Preston, laid out the ton of legal issues the agency faces here at home. There are enough of them for him to set up a new position, deputy CIA general counsel for litigation and investigations, and to hire Darrin Hostetler for the post.</p> </blockquote> <p>Feel safer yet? I'd prefer the CIA was hiring folks to beat the snot out of al-Qaeda and America's enemies.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWFiZTI3MDMxZDlhYjk1N2QyYWZkODhiNjQzODM3YzU= Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:15:17 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmRmYWJlMzMyNGFhY2E0YjI4NDBhNzU0NzcwNmIwYTg= Just got back from a short briefing with Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas, who heads up the National Republican Congressional Committee. A couple of things jumped out at me:</p> <p>* The NRCC believes it has 65 top-tier challengers in Democrat-held or open seats. A few of those are in the same district, so it's not quite 65 separate races. They note that at this point in the 2006 cycle, then-DCCC head Rahm Emanuel was boasting about having 45 good recruits.</p> <p>* The NRCC has top-tier challengers against 36 of the 41 Democrats deemed most vulnerable by the DCCC.</p> <p>* Of the 435 House districts, 276 have a Republican running in them so far this year (64 percent). Of course, Republicans currently hold 177 House seats.</p> <p>* 51 GOP challengers have more than $100,000 in cash on hand.</p> <p>* Of the challengers so far, 26 are women, 21 are members of minority groups, 18 are doctors, nurses, or in the health-care profession, 40 are veterans, 51 are business owners, and 162 are described as "citizen-candidates." Sessions and NRCC staff said that these 162 are described as having never been elected to public office before, but I don't know where they drew the line -- school board?</p> <p>Sessions noted that 12 of the 13 House Democrats who voted for the cap-and-trade bill, but against the health-care bill, have top-tier challengers. "Public opinion is driving some of that, but if you have a bad candidate running against you, you don't worry as much about public opinion," he said.</p> <p>There are a couple of candidates who would be considered "top tier" who are still thinking about it. The best example of this would be Hazelton, Pa., mayor Lou Barletta, who ran against Kanjorski in 2008, led in several polls, and lost by only four percentage points, while Obama was winning the district by 15 percentage points.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmRmYWJlMzMyNGFhY2E0YjI4NDBhNzU0NzcwNmIwYTg= Tue, 17 Nov 2009 15:51:14 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWY4NDAwYzJkOWM5NjQyZTBlNzZlMDg2NWE4MGM3NGM= It is, in some ways, <a href="http://www.hudsonreporter.com/pages/full_stories_home/push?article--Democrats+discuss+having+Corzine+resign+early-+then+replace+Lautenberg-%20&id=4491461--Democrats+discuss+having+Corzine+resign+early-+then+replace+Lautenberg-&instance=up_to_the_minute_le" target="_blank">a perfect sequel to the Torricelli maneuver</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>In what could become the highest profile game of political musical chairs in the state, Democratic sources claim they are considering replacing U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg with outgoing Gov. Jon Corzine.<br /><br />It would work like this: Corzine would resign prior to January, when Republican Christopher Christie takes over as governor. A Corzine resignation would allow state Sen. President Richard Codey to serve as acting governor. Then Lautenberg would retire from the U.S. Senate, leaving Codey to name Corzine to fill the seat until a special election.<br /><br />This is similar to a move made when Corzine resigned the senate to become governor, when he named then Rep. Bob Menendez to fill his own seat.<br /><br />The move would prevent Christie from being able to name a replacement for the aging Lautenberg and would give Corzine a leg up as a senate incumbent in the special election next November.</p> </blockquote> <p>The idea is repugnant, and stupid, and the clearest example of a runaway partisan fury that ignores existing laws, mechanisms of democracy, and the will of voters.</p> <p>One would hope it would be too silly, and too ridiculous, and too outrageous for even New Jersey Democratic party bosses to try. But then again, a few states to the north, they changed the rules to ensure Senator Kennedy's seat was filled quickly, too.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWY4NDAwYzJkOWM5NjQyZTBlNzZlMDg2NWE4MGM3NGM= Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:07:33 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NGQzYTZjOWY4ZTg3NTUwM2Y0ODJlMzBkYTk2NmJmZmU= <a href="http://www.gouverneurtimes.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=8024:updated-23rd-district-election-counts&catid=60:st-lawrence-news&Itemid=175" target="_blank">Up in New York's 23rd congressional district</a>, "With three counties' absentee ballots included, Doug Hoffman now trails Bill Owens by 2,951 votes."</p> <p>The local news estimates that an additional 6,123 absentee votes have yet to be counted.</p> <p>Right now, Owens leads, 48.51 percent to 46.45 percent.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NGQzYTZjOWY4ZTg3NTUwM2Y0ODJlMzBkYTk2NmJmZmU= Tue, 17 Nov 2009 11:16:39 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTUyN2JlNmIxNDQ2ZWYzMzkwOTA4M2Y0ZGJkZjFmY2E= Can you stand one more poll on health care? From <a href="http://www.pos.org/latestnumbers/healthcare_nov09_memo.pdf">Public Opinion Strategies</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>In one of the first national surveys completed after the House vote on health care reform . . . things do not look good for President Obama and Democrats in Congress:<br /><br />Opposition to President Obama’s health care plan is higher after the House vote than our previous tracks (29% favor/40% oppose). Voters’ net opposition to the plan has increased from -6% in September (31% favor/37% oppose) to -11% today.</p> <p>Voter opposition to President Obama’s health care plan is higher than ever measured for President Clinton’s plan in 1993/1994 (35% oppose in June 1994).</p> <p>Multiple surveys show voters believe President Obama’s health care plan will mean their health care costs will increase (46% increase/11% decrease) and their quality of care will get worse (40% get worse/18% get better). Concerns about cost have trended up since September.</p> <p>Data continue to show the more people hear about President Obama’s health care plan the less they like it (38% the more I like it/52% the less I like it).</p> <p>The tide has significantly changed as Americans’ views about government involvement in health care are shifting. In March 2009, by a one point margin, voters said the federal government had a responsibility to provide government-run health care coverage to all. Today, this number has significantly shifted as voters now say by a 17 point margin it is not the federal government’s responsibility.</p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTUyN2JlNmIxNDQ2ZWYzMzkwOTA4M2Y0ZGJkZjFmY2E= Tue, 17 Nov 2009 11:07:05 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmRlOWJjOGZlYTZhNTA2NjViYTQ1M2I5M2U0ODljZjc= Wow, 10.2 percent unemployment hasn't just spurred President Obama to host a "jobs summit"; <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE5AG01820091117" target="_blank">he's also going to</a> "embark on a cross-country tour to discuss economic recovery."</p> <p>Well, turnout at these events should be pretty good, since so many Americans don't have to work during the day.</p> <p>I notice:</p> <blockquote> <p>Obama wanted to get out of Washington and "take the temperature on what Americans are experiencing during these challenging economic times," the White House said.</p> </blockquote> <p>(I take it the walls are giving reporters direct quotes again.) Let me save the president some time: Very few people are hiring. Businesses are closing. Layoffs continue. You've seen painful industry-defining upheaval in the auto industry, financial sector, media, and publishing, as well as the continued decline in manufacturing, the lack of a pulse in real estate, and almost nothing going on in construction. There are many reasons for this, but I can't help but suspect that three key factors are A) businesses don't know whether or not, and how much, they will have to pay for employees' health care, B) businesses don't know how much they'll have to pay for energy if cap-and-trade passes, and C) businesses don't know how much they'll have to pay under the higher taxes you and Congress want to enact as soon as you can. With these many ominous indicators and unknown risk factors out there, who would hire new employees?</p> <p>Oh, and you've started trade wars and are telling foreign countries our consumers won't be able to purchase as much as we have in the past.</p> <p>There is no problem facing this country so large that the White House doesn't think it can solve it through campaign-style events.</p> <p>UPDATE: A reader wonders if the tour will include stops at stimulus projects in Arizona's 86th congressional district or Connecticut's 42nd district.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmRlOWJjOGZlYTZhNTA2NjViYTQ1M2I5M2U0ODljZjc= Tue, 17 Nov 2009 10:31:47 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTFhYWI1ZWZmNjljNGI1MzhiYWQzNjU4ZDU2MDA2OTY= Good news, my fellow Americans. Finally, we're on the same page as the Europeans. Just check out <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,661678,00.html" target="_blank"><em>Der Speigel</em></a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Barack Obama cast himself as a "citizen of the world" when he delivered his well-received campaign speech in Berlin in the summer of 2008. But the US president has now betrayed this claim. In his Berlin speech, he was dishonest with Europe. Since then, Obama has neglected the single most important issue for an American president who likes to imagine himself as a world citizen, namely his country's addiction to fossil fuels and the risks of unchecked climate change. Health care reform and other domestic issues were more important to him than global environmental threats. He was either unwilling or unable to convince skeptics in his own ranks and potential defectors from the ranks of the Republicans to support him, for example by promising alternative investments as a compensation for states with large coal reserves.</p> <p>Obama's announcement at the APEC summit that it was no longer possible to secure a binding treaty in Copenhagen, is the result of his own negligence. China, India and other emerging economies have always spoken openly about the fact that the US, as the world's largest emitter of CO2, has to be proactive in commiting itself to targets agreed on by way of international negotiation. But that is not America's style. The US is quite happy to see itself as the leader of the Western world. But when it comes to climate change, America has once again failed miserably -- for the umpteenth time.</p> </blockquote> <p>As I often, say, "<em>Alle Behauptungen von Barack Obama kommen mit einem Verfallsdatum. Alle.</em>"</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTFhYWI1ZWZmNjljNGI1MzhiYWQzNjU4ZDU2MDA2OTY= Tue, 17 Nov 2009 10:25:25 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODE5ZDc4NDgwYjJjNjU0ZTQ3ZDljNWMwZDE4MGI2NjI= The campaign of Republican challenger Greg Ball, running in New York's 19th congressional district, e-mails, touting a poll they commissioned:</p> <blockquote> <p><span style=",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Tuesday's <em>Roll Call</em> reports that a poll conducted for Greg's campaign by Vitale and Associates on Oct. 21-22 shows Greg trailing the incumbent [Democrat John Hall] by only 5 points, 48%-43% one year out from the election. Importantly, Greg wins independents 48%-38% in a district that Obama only won 51%-48% in 2008. Greg's name ID across the Congressional district is 68% while his current primary challenger, is only 11%.<br /></span></p> </blockquote> <p>Obviously, readers are entitled to take campaign-commissioned polls with a grain of salt; having said that, a dramatic swing among independents seems pretty plausible considering what we've seen in Virginia and New Jersey.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODE5ZDc4NDgwYjJjNjU0ZTQ3ZDljNWMwZDE4MGI2NjI= Tue, 17 Nov 2009 10:06:04 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTZhOTQyYzRkZGFhZmNiZWI3Zjc3ZWFmMWE3YTdlODc= When asked by Bill O'Reilly whether he's thinking of running for Senate in New Jersey, Lou Dobbs <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/11/16/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry5677284.shtml?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CBSNewsMain+%28Breaking+News%3A+CBSNews.com%29" target="_blank">says only</a> that he's "thinking about a lot of opportunities."</p> <p>The next scheduled Senate race isn't until 2012, and would match Dobbs against Democrat Bob Menendez, presuming he runs for another term.</p> <p>But the Garden State's senior senator -- no pun intended -- Frank Lautenberg, is a spry 85 years old, and was reelected last year. So the possibility of a sudden opening in the interim is not unthinkable.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTZhOTQyYzRkZGFhZmNiZWI3Zjc3ZWFmMWE3YTdlODc= Tue, 17 Nov 2009 09:41:29 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2E5NDdlZGZlMmFmZTlkOGJhYjEyNDRmMzBmY2I3Nzg= <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iFZSscAXXx150dnNtPXwXm8SfL6A" target="_blank">No wonder Holder's decision was announced as Obama left the country</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Almost two-thirds of Americans disagree with the decision by President Barack Obama's administration to try the suspected 9/11 mastermind in a civilian court, a poll showed Monday. Sixty-four percent of those surveyed said Khalid Sheikh Mohammed should be tried in a military court, while only 34 percent agreed with Obama that the civilian judicial system was the best way forward, the CNN poll said.</p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2E5NDdlZGZlMmFmZTlkOGJhYjEyNDRmMzBmY2I3Nzg= Tue, 17 Nov 2009 09:28:11 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MmUzOWVlNWZjMzc0YTRjZjk4NjkyNmQ0MTY3NTg2MzQ= So much for the theory that support for health-care legislation grows when the issue fades from the headlines.</p> <p>In the latest <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/17/AR2009111700021.html?hpid=topnews" target="_blank"><em>Washington Post</em>/ABC News poll</a>, the public splits, 48 percent in support, 49 percent in opposition to health-care reforms being pushed by Congress and the Obama administration. Only 30 percent strongly support; 39 percent strongly oppose.</p> <p>More:</p> <blockquote> <p>52 percent say an altered system would probably make their own care more expensive, and 56 percent see the overall cost of health care in the country going up as a result.</p> <p>Few see clear benefits in exchange for higher expenses. Rather, there has been a small but significant increase in the number (now 37 percent) who anticipate their care deteriorating under a revamped system, putting that number in line with opinion in July 1994, just before President Bill Clinton's health-care reform efforts fizzled.</p> <p>Among those with insurance, three times as many continue to see worse rather than better coverage options ahead (39 to 13 percent), and fewer than half of those who lack insurance see better options under a changed system. Six in 10 see it as "very" or "somewhat" likely that many private insurers would be forced out of business by a government-sponsored insurance plan, a potential result that GOP leaders frequently warn about.</p> </blockquote> <p>The <em>Post</em> says the good news for Democrats in the poll is that "while Americans overall are divided on reform legislation, the Democrats have made some progress among at least one key group. Support among senior citizens, while still broadly negative, is up 13 points since September to 44 percent."</p> <p>Actually, I think the better news for Democrats is that they'll force through terrible legislation if it's polling around 50-50; they'll flinch if it's around 45-55.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MmUzOWVlNWZjMzc0YTRjZjk4NjkyNmQ0MTY3NTg2MzQ= Tue, 17 Nov 2009 09:22:33 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2ZiYmY5NzI4ZmFiMjhkZDQxY2Q3ODI4ZjllMmY4ZjM= Former U.S. attorney general Mike Mukasey appeared this morning on the <a href="http://www.wsradio.com/internet-talk-radio/network.cfm/station/Washington-Times-Radio.html" target="_blank"><em>Washington Times</em> radio show</a>. The hosts asked him about the <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjQ2YmZkNDBiMzVjY2U2NTVmOTMwNmExNDg0NGEwMjk=" target="_blank">charge from Virginia congressman Jim Moran</a> that critics and skeptics of bringing Khalid Sheik Mohammed to trial in New York City are "un-American."</p> <p>Mukasey responded, "I think he's lost touch with reality. He ought to get professional help, perhaps from Major Nidal."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2ZiYmY5NzI4ZmFiMjhkZDQxY2Q3ODI4ZjllMmY4ZjM= Tue, 17 Nov 2009 09:11:07 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzA0NDQwNWZkNjIzNjg1NTY3NzVjZjYwMzczNWI0OTM= The above-the-fold, front-page photo in the <em>Washington Post</em> is <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2009/11/16/PH2009111603724.html" target="_blank">"ObaMao" t-shirts</a>.</p> <p>Man, I had no idea Glenn Beck was so huge in China.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzA0NDQwNWZkNjIzNjg1NTY3NzVjZjYwMzczNWI0OTM= Tue, 17 Nov 2009 09:03:42 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzUzODE1N2Q4Y2I4MjVmOWRiYWQwZThkYzFiN2M3ODM= Suddenly, Obama's claim to have visited 57 states...</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="425" height="344" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/EpGH02DtIws&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/EpGH02DtIws&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed> </object> </p> <p style="text-align: left;">... <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/jobs-saved-created-congressional-districts-exist/story?id=9097853" target="_blank">makes a bit more sense</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>In fact, <a href="http://www.recovery.gov/Pages/home.aspx" target="external">Recovery.gov</a> lists hundreds of millions spent and hundreds of <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/story?id=7183746&page=1">jobs created</a> in Congressional districts that don't exist.</p> <p>In Oklahoma, for example, the site lists more than $19 million in spending -- and 15 jobs created -- on Congressional districts that don't exist. In Iowa, it shows $10.6 million spent - and 39 jobs created -- in non-existent districts.</p> <p>In Connecticut's 42nd District (which also does not exist), the website claims 25 <a href="http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2009/11/potus-to-announce-wh-job-creation-summit-in-december.html" target="external">jobs</a> created with zero <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=9090878" target="external">stimulus dollars</a>.</p> </blockquote> <p>We should have caught on quicker when we saw listings for jobs created in Bloom County, Gotham City, San Andreas, Sunnydale, and Sodor.</p> <p>UPDATE: A reader reports, "I have heard the congressmen representing Lake Woebegone, MN and Margaritaville, FL are livid those communities did not get their fair share of stimulus funding."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzUzODE1N2Q4Y2I4MjVmOWRiYWQwZThkYzFiN2M3ODM= Mon, 16 Nov 2009 16:19:33 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjUzNzhmYjg1MDYyNDRmOTg4YTA2MGVlMDg4NjVhZDk= My understanding is that the White House Cybersecurity Czar is <a href="http://www.federaltimes.com/article/20091113/AGENCY02/911130301/1055/AGENCY" target="_blank">expected to emerge shortly</a>, but if he sees his shadow, it means at least another six weeks of cold weather before he tries again.</p> <p>I'm actually <a href="http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MWVmNDk2MGMwZTcwNjI3ZjIyZTUxZGRiODNkMWM4ZWY=" target="_blank">pro-this-czar</a>. Having said that, perhaps we should have seen this as an early indicator on President Obama's Afghan decision, as the new czar position was announced way back on <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-by-the-President-on-Securing-Our-Nations-Cyber-Infrastructure" target="_blank">May 29</a>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjUzNzhmYjg1MDYyNDRmOTg4YTA2MGVlMDg4NjVhZDk= Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:42:24 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjY0ZGQzMmY2MzY5ZTBjN2M1MmE5NTliMmE3NDkxZTY= Over on CNN, our friend David Frum <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2009/OPINION/11/16/frum.gop.florida.crist.rubio.battle/" target="_blank">writes</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>The Republican fratricide in the November 3 special election in upstate New York may prove just an opening round of an even more spectacular bloodbath in Florida in 2010.</p> </blockquote> <p>If by "bloodbath" he means, hard-fought primary, then yes, there will be one of those. You'll probably see them in the Texas governor's race, the California Senate and governor's races, maybe New Hampshire and Connecticut Senate races, and maybe a House race or two.<br /><br />But they happen, and while they can often use up resources, they don't generally spell disaster for the general election. Democrats had a really hard-fought 2008 presidential primary, and things turned out okay on their end last year.</p> <p>Barring some big surprise, the Democratic senatorial nominee in Florida will be <a href="http://www.kendrickmeek.com/" target="_blank">Kendrick Meek</a>. Barring a race-changing revelation or scandal, either Crist or Rubio will beat Meek pretty handily.</p> <p>Frum's larger point is that Rubio is hitting Crist for supporting Obama's stimulus, without offering good alternatives: "Here's the most important unasked question raised by the enthusiasm for Rubio among Washington conservatives: What alternative policy should have been adopted back in the spring, when interest rates had been cut to almost zero and the economy was still collapsing? Are vague bromides about big government anything like an adequate response to the worst economic crisis experienced by any American under age 80?"</p> <p>I <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTM1ZmU2MWYzOTk5Nzc4MGZjZmNmNjY3YjExZjMzN2I=" target="_blank">liked a one-year suspension of the payroll tax</a>, but that's just me...</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjY0ZGQzMmY2MzY5ZTBjN2M1MmE5NTliMmE3NDkxZTY= Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:18:23 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjUyOWUyZDgxNDUyMTEwYTg1NGQ1OTQyZmQwMGE5MDU= <p class="MsoNormal">Back in July, Obama economic adviser Larry Summers <a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/25083.html" target="_blank">was fishing around for good news</a> on the economic front, and noted that “the number of people searching for the term ‘economic depression’ on Google is <span style="font-family: ">down to normal levels.’</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ">Of course, Summers’ measuring stick was just telling us how many people wanted to know about an economic depression at that moment; it didn’t really tell us much about economic growth, job creation, income, business expansion, or any of that other stuff we miss so dearly. And that was back in the good old days when unemployment was only 9.4 percent.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ">But presumably, we could use Google searches for more relevant data. For example, y</span>ou find a fascinating indicator when <a href="http://news.google.com/news/search?um=1&cf=all&ned=us&hl=en&q=%22will+shut+down%22&cf=all&start=0" target="_blank">you type "will shut down" in Google News</a>:</p> <p class="MsoNormal">A <a href="http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct2=us%2F0_0_s_0_0_t&usg=AFQjCNFpcL2cQ8FFFM4iBv5LhHPKbTC4JA&cid=0&ei=7JoBS8jhK9-PmAeA0dT4Ag&rt=SEARCH&vm=STANDARD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cfnews13.com%2FNews%2FLocal%2F2009%2F11%2F13%2Fday_care_at_courthouse_may_shut_down.">central Florida day care</a>, <a href="http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct2=us%2F0_0_s_1_0_t&usg=AFQjCNHd6wDLTzJIEnLAdUmnmpIkuPKjBg&cid=1467523111&ei=7JoBS8jhK9-PmAeA0dT4Ag&rt=SEARCH&vm=STANDARD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Fpfizer-to-shutter-six-out-of-20-rd-sites-2009-11-">six Pfizer R&D sites</a>, a <a href="http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct2=us%2F0_0_s_3_0_t&usg=AFQjCNGPcjn8C7P4dlI7ap-8_Ues9KkwMA&cid=1463510952&ei=7JoBS8jhK9-PmAeA0dT4Ag&rt=SEARCH&vm=STANDARD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tmcnet.com%2Fusubmit%2F-brief-freedom-communications-shut-down-paper-mesa-a">newspaper in Arizona</a>, <a href="http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct2=us%2F0_0_s_5_0_t&usg=AFQjCNG8HzeucqRBuaOAUQIdXG_plToZdA&cid=1456471144&ei=7JoBS8jhK9-PmAeA0dT4Ag&rt=SEARCH&vm=STANDARD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.allheadlinenews.com%2Farticles%2F7016800989%3FGeoCities%2520To%2520Shut%252">GeoCities</a> (the old web-hosting platform), <a href="http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local-beat/CLOSING-TIME-IN-COLTON-70078572.html">libraries in the city of Colton, California</a>, a <a href="http://www.amnews.com/stories/2009/11/12/loc.043422.sto">manufacturing site</a> of Red Wing Shoe Co., three <a href="http://kezi.com/news/local/146071">paper mills in New York, Virginia, and Louisiana</a>…</p> <p class="MsoNormal">I mention this because ABC News is reporting, “<span style="font-family: ">The Obama administration, under fire for inflating <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Business/scrutiny-obama-stimulus-jobs-mounting/story?id=9075257" target="external">job growth from the $787 billion stimulus plan</a>, slashed over 60,000 jobs from its most recent report on the program because the reporting outlets had submitted unrealistic data.”</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ">The stimulus isn’t working, while the private sector is still looking pretty dismal. Obama wants to move on to health care and climate change, while he hasn't addressed <a href="http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2009/11/americans-fret-more-about-econ.html" target="_blank">Americans' top concern</a>...<br /></span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjUyOWUyZDgxNDUyMTEwYTg1NGQ1OTQyZmQwMGE5MDU= Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:04:00 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmJlYjA3OGM4MGE5ZjlhYTNkMzJkODJiNDkyMTIxZjg= <a href="http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OTA2YTdiZDU0NzRmNzkxMjUzMmEyY2M0ZTkxY2FhNTg=" target="_blank">Over on the home page</a>, a look at how Sarah Palin breaks the rules - and what this means for her future...</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmJlYjA3OGM4MGE5ZjlhYTNkMzJkODJiNDkyMTIxZjg= Mon, 16 Nov 2009 13:42:13 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MGQzMmFjYjQwM2YxMDVjZmE3YmI3ZWJkMTZkZGVkZDM= <a href="http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/stimulus-job-inflation-70198487.html" target="_blank">Two names that are familiar in these parts</a> make the case that 10 percent of the "saved or created" stimulus jobs doubtful or imaginary.</p> <p>All together now: Only 10 percent?</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MGQzMmFjYjQwM2YxMDVjZmE3YmI3ZWJkMTZkZGVkZDM= Mon, 16 Nov 2009 13:32:06 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmE0NWFlM2M3NTYyZjdhZDc1OWU5OGViOWNlZGViYzI= From the <a href="http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/politics/palin-oprah-chicago-interview-studio-69775592.html" target="_blank">Chicago NBC affiliate</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Sarah Palin is eyeing a talk show, according to audience members who witnessed the former VP candidate's interview with Oprah today.<br /><br />Oprah asked Palin directly whether she wanted to get into the talk show business. Palin demurred and, according to audience members interviewed outside the studio, suggested she was considering the move. Palin did not give a direct yes or no answer.<br /><br />In addition, at least one audience member noticed tension between Oprah and Palin.<br /><br />Oprah " kept on her and on her," said Lauren Espie of Oprah's inquiries into Palin's plans to host a talk show.  But Palin "bluntly never responded."</p> </blockquote> <p>(Put aside questions of how one can "bluntly never respond" for a moment.)</p> <p> </p> <p class="MsoNormal">It’s Sarah’s life, but I hope she doesn’t opt for this avenue. I’m sure the allure of a daily audience, interesting guests, and lucrative paychecks is hard to resist, but I’m not quite sure it moves the ball in the right direction for conservatism as a whole.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">If she did pursue a career behind a microphone, she would be the third Republican candidate from 2008 to jump into the talk show business behind Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee. (There were reports of Rudy Giuliani hosting a radio show after the 2008 campaign, but it never went beyond talks.)</p> <p class="MsoNormal">There’s a role for everybody in this world, but we’re at a moment where conservatism needs its best players reaching out to audiences beyond the friendly confines of the talk radio world or Fox News. Yes, Fox News has the largest audience of any cable news network - <a href="http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/11/13/cable-news-ratings-for-thursday-november-12-2009-post-lou-dobbs-ratings-bump/33631" target="_blank">2.7 million in prime time</a>, while MSNBC's second place is only 962,000. But the cable news audience is only a small portion of the audience as a whole; the nightly news audience recently measured from <a href="http://www.suntimes.com/business/lazare/1868173,CST-NWS-NEWS06.article" target="_blank">6.3 million (Brian Williams) to 4.6 million (Katie Couric)</a>. Fox News is a treasure, but there's a large audience beyond it that much more rarely encounters conservative ideas or perspectives.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Former congressman <a href="http://www.kasichforohio.com">John Kasich</a> is a case where the figures are moving in the right direction - from a Fox News weekend show to a strong challenge to an incumbent Democratic governor. (And perhaps we'll see Lou Dobbs looking at some non-broadcasting options.) But if you think hosting a talk radio or television program is, in and of itself, an art form, and that governing is a different skill set, then perhaps it's not healthy for conservatism's biggest names and brightest stars to be steadily drifting from one field to the next.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmE0NWFlM2M3NTYyZjdhZDc1OWU5OGViOWNlZGViYzI= Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:44:42 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2U0NWIyYTY0MDg1Nzg5ZjNmNmM2NzVjZTU4NzE2OGI= Every time I call attention to anything in the Carly Fiorina-Chuck DeVore GOP primary fight in California, I know I can count on more e-mail from each side's dedicated supporters. But <a href="http://washingtonindependent.com/67846/a-tea-party-candidate-promises-fiorina-a-fight" target="_blank">this</a> (HT: <a href="http://www.gop12.com/2009/11/devore-wont-denounce.html" target="_blank">GOP12</a>) jumped out at me, and warranted the inevitable, "why are you writing about X but not about Y" e-mails...</p> <blockquote> <p>Nonetheless, asked what he thought of Brown’s ideas, DeVore didn’t take the chance to denounce “birther” rumors or the movement itself-which has been heavily active in California.</p> <p>“The president is doing himself no favors by spending millions of dollars to block the release of documents surrounding his birth certificate,” said DeVore. “As long as the president keeps fighting tooth and nail to prevent the release of such things, people are going to remain skeptical.” The door was left open, said DeVore, because Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign didn’t go after Obama’s qualifications when it had the chance, and because there were no statutory requirements for verifying a candidate’s citizenship.</p> </blockquote> <p>Please tell me the president's birth certificate will not be an issue in the GOP primary...</p> <p>UPDATE: Team DeVore responds. "I can tell you it won't be [an issue in the primary]. We're not the ones bringing this up, as it's completely irrelevant as a campaign issue. Fiorina's campaign is."</p> <p>They note they put up a web video on this theme:</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="560" height="340" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/T5grUxritpk&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="560" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/T5grUxritpk&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed> </object> </p> <p style="text-align: left;">UPDATE: Devore himself adds, via e-mail, "I said ten years ago that the move to impeach and convict President Clinton was a distraction from countering his liberal policies. So too is the effort now to question President Obama's legitimacy. Make no mistake, the Constitution is clear: Barack Obama is the President. The more time Carly Fiorina's campaign spends on this side issue, the less time we have to work against the far-left agenda and failed policies of President Obama, Speaker Pelosi, and Senator Boxer."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2U0NWIyYTY0MDg1Nzg5ZjNmNmM2NzVjZTU4NzE2OGI= Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:40:23 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjdhZmJhYmZlZDk2MTkzN2EwYzRjMTRmYTg0NDAzODc= Many Campaign Spot readers in South Carolina, including Campaign Spot Dad, periodically talk up various up-and-coming Republicans as potential primary challengers to Sen. Lindsey Graham. I'm not denying that Graham's periodic deviations from conservative positions, while representing a deep red state, aren't bothersome. But the primary isn't until June 2014 (presuming it's kept in its traditional month). <a href="http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/rubin/167771" target="_blank">Talk of slumping polls</a> may excite folks, but there's going to be a lot of fights between now and then.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjdhZmJhYmZlZDk2MTkzN2EwYzRjMTRmYTg0NDAzODc= Mon, 16 Nov 2009 11:20:44 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDA5YWFhN2QxMmEwYTJlZWU0M2UwZjQ0ZmFmY2NmYjU= "The more freely information flows, the stronger the society becomes," Obama said to a Chinese audience.</p> <p>No word on whether he allowed his administration officials on the trip to speak to Fox News, or whether the president will ever be willing to say the same to Chris Wallace.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDA5YWFhN2QxMmEwYTJlZWU0M2UwZjQ0ZmFmY2NmYjU= Mon, 16 Nov 2009 09:41:00 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjQ2YmZkNDBiMzVjY2U2NTVmOTMwNmExNDg0NGEwMjk= Hey, if you don't think it's a good idea to bring Khalid Sheik Mohammad to New York City for a civilian trial, you're not just wrong, you're "<a href="http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/dem-congressman-its-unamerican-to-oppose-us-terror-trials.php" target="_blank">un-American</a>."</p> <p>Congressman Jim Moran, Democrat of Northern Virginia, says so.</p> <p>His Republican challenger, <a href="http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/dem-congressman-its-unamerican-to-oppose-us-terror-trials.php" target="_blank">Matthew Berry</a>, offers a differing view:</p> <blockquote> <p> “It is wrong for Congressman Moran to question the patriotism of the millions of Americans who believe that terrorists such as Khalid Sheikh Mohammed should be tried by military commissions rather than in civilian courtrooms. Furthermore, Congressman Moran’s comment reflects a basic ignorance of American history.  Military commissions were used to try war crimes during the Revolutionary War, Mexican War, Civil War, Spanish-American War, and World War II. The use of a military commission to try Khalid Sheikh Mohammed would have been entirely in keeping with American history and tradition.”</p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjQ2YmZkNDBiMzVjY2U2NTVmOTMwNmExNDg0NGEwMjk= Mon, 16 Nov 2009 09:33:55 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDY4NmU3OTkxNTUyMTQ3ZTQ5MjUxMmQzYWU5N2EzNzE= A fascinating late-Friday e-mail from Doug Hoffman's campaign to his supporters:</p> <blockquote> <p>Our Campaign Is Not Over Yet!</p> <p>Doug Hoffman</p> <p>You have stood by us through this challenging campaign, one that took many unexpected twists and turns. First two liberals were running against one conservative. Then the liberal Republican dropped out of the race and, showing her true colors, endorsed the real Pelosi Democrat. On Election Day the votes were close, and we thought we had lost.<br /> <br />Yet now, a little more than a week after Election Day, our fight takes another turn as reports surface that the election was far closer than we had originally thought. There is only a 3,000-vote difference and final tally will be decided by a count of10,000 absentee ballots.<br /> <br />Our fight continues as we keep a close eye on the recount. See below:</p> </blockquote> <p>And the e-mail links to several recent stories about how the vote margin is narrowing.</p> <p>The absentee ballots are unlikely to put Hoffman over the top; there would need to be extraordinary return rates, and they would have to break extremely heavily to him in a three-way race. But it's not unreasonable to expect that it could end up much closer than we thought on Election Night - and in the meantime, see <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2009/11/rep-owens-in-jeopardy.html" target="_blank">more headlines</a> like, "Rep. Owens in Jeopardy?"</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDY4NmU3OTkxNTUyMTQ3ZTQ5MjUxMmQzYWU5N2EzNzE= Mon, 16 Nov 2009 09:27:05 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZWM4MDAxOGQzZjViYzMzOTQ3NDIxYThlMjAzNjc1ZGE= Most people will <a href="http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2009/11/15/Obama-US-consumers-strapped/UPI-92981258303340/" target="_blank">interpret this</a> as the American President wisely assessing our current trade imbalance:</p> <blockquote> <p>President Barack Obama told Chinese and other Asian leaders they can't expect U.S. consumers, struggling with debt, to keep driving Asian economies.<br /><br />Obama made the comment in Singapore Sunday at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, before leaving for Shanghai to begin a four-day state visit to China, The Wall Street Journal reported.<br /><br />"The recession we're just now recovering from has clearly taught us the limits of depending on the American consumer to drive economic growth," Obama said.</p> </blockquote> <p>That's one interpretation. The other is that considering how his administration has tackled unemployment, and the tax hikes coming down the pike, the American consumer is going to have a lot less money to spend on stuff made in Asia.<br /><br />I guess the point of the stimulus was to liberate us all from frustrating jobs and soulless materialism.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZWM4MDAxOGQzZjViYzMzOTQ3NDIxYThlMjAzNjc1ZGE= Mon, 16 Nov 2009 09:15:20 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzFkMGMzZTRkZDZkOTMzNjIxZDQ1MmNkYTZmY2UwYTQ= Considering how frequently Obama breaks promises from earlier in his presidency or the campaign trail, it almost feels unfair to hold him to statements from all the way back in 2006. Ancient history, of course.</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="480" height="390" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="src" value="http://blip.tv/play/hJNRga%2BJbQI%2Em4v" /> <param name="allowfullscreen" value="true" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="480" height="390" src="http://blip.tv/play/hJNRga%2BJbQI%2Em4v" allowfullscreen="true"></embed> </object> </p> <p style="text-align: left;">It's not even surprising anymore. All statements from Barack Obama come with an expiration date. All of them.</p> <p style="text-align: left;">And if the Obama administration were really proud of this move, they wouldn't have announced it just as the president leaves the country for six days.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzFkMGMzZTRkZDZkOTMzNjIxZDQ1MmNkYTZmY2UwYTQ= Mon, 16 Nov 2009 09:04:24 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDUzZmRmZWMzNmNmNWFlNDI4MWJmMzBjNTA2MDRiZWI= A statement from former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani concerning today's news that Guantanamo Bay detainees will face trial here in New York:</p> <blockquote> <p>Returning some of the Guantanamo detainees to New York City for trial, specifically Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, has now brought us full circle -- we have regressed to a pre-9/11 mentality with respect to Islamic extremist terrorism. Khalid Shaikh Mohammed should be treated like the war criminal he is and tried in a military court. He is not just another murderer, or even a mass murderer. He murdered as part of a declared war against us -- America.</p> <p>This is the same mistake we made with the 1993 terrorists who attacked the World Trade Center. We treated them like domestic criminals, when in fact they were terrorists. In the dangerous world we live in today, a nation unable to identify and properly define its enemies is a nation in danger.</p> </blockquote> <p>I would only add that there is one scenario in which the choice to bring Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and four other al-Qaeda to New York City will seem like a wise decision: A conviction, delivered after an orderly, fair trial, with no interruptions.<br /><br />There are many scenarios where this choice will look reckless and stupid: an acquittal (remember, one holdout kept Moussaoui from the death penalty), a mistrial, an O. J. Simpson-like circus, KSM and the others using the trial as a soapbox to denounce America every moment, and worst of all, a terror attack launched to influence it. (Could jurors be a target?)</p> <p>The choice has been made; now all of us get to live with the consequences.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDUzZmRmZWMzNmNmNWFlNDI4MWJmMzBjNTA2MDRiZWI= Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:58:34 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjExOTc1OTUxN2MwYzNjY2E1ZmY3MDE4OTdiOTUyODY= In the latest updated numbers in New York's 23rd congressional district, Democratic congressman Bill Owens leads by <a href="http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091112/BLOGS09/911129996/BLOGS09" target="_blank">3,176 votes</a> over Conservative Doug Hoffman. It was about 5,000 votes on Election Night.</p> <p>One of my readers, John, notes:</p> <blockquote> <div>Other than the three areas where Hoffman supposedly got 0 votes, Dede only exceeded 10 percent of the total vote once (Town of Brookfield 0/1 @ 13.2 percent). She only exceeded 10 percent of Hoffman's votes in 4 areas, Brookfield 0/1 and 0/2 and Madison 0/1 and 0/2 for 35.3 percent, 17.1 percent, 16.1 percent, and 12.9 percent).</div> <div> </div> <div>Yet somehow she got a majority of the vote 3 times in places where Hoffman got zero?  61.2 percent in Fenner 0/1, 51.3 percent in Hamilton 0/3, and 59.2 percent in Sullivan 0/2?</div> <div> </div> <div>I'd bet money that Dede's votes in these areas were a total of Dede and Hoffman votes, and that Hoffman was cheated of about 500 votes (using Owens' percentage of votes as a proxy and assuming about the same Dede/Hamilton split as in similar areas that gave Owens that percentage of votes).</div> </blockquote> <div>The collection of absentee ballots, recanvassing and recounting will probably not result in a new winner. But they'll make the final numbers really darn interesting -- and suggest Hoffman should not have conceded when he did.</div><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjExOTc1OTUxN2MwYzNjY2E1ZmY3MDE4OTdiOTUyODY= Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:56:12 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWY0ZGEzZjIwZjEyZTdhYmY0MWUwN2M2NWM3ZTIxMzE= Nothing screams confidence like the <a href="http://www.rollcall.com/news/40553-1.html?type=printer_friendly" target="_blank">head of the DCCC telling the press</a> that his party is in for a “very tough cycle” in 2010.</p> <p>Yay, team!</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWY0ZGEzZjIwZjEyZTdhYmY0MWUwN2M2NWM3ZTIxMzE= Fri, 13 Nov 2009 12:13:30 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDI1NTk1MmQ4MWZkODZhZTA1YjBlYzNlNjBhYjUzNjM= Each November, <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/124253/Say-Health-Coverage-Not-Gov-Responsibility.aspx" target="_blank">Gallup asks Americans</a>, "Is it the federal government's responsibility to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage?"</p> <p>A year ago, 54 percent said it was, and only 41 percent said it was not.</p> <p>Today, 50 percent say it is <em>not</em> the federal government's responsibility, and only 47 percent say it is.</p> <p>Who says all of President Obama's big speeches can't move public opinion?</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDI1NTk1MmQ4MWZkODZhZTA1YjBlYzNlNjBhYjUzNjM= Fri, 13 Nov 2009 10:03:55 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2YxYWM3NjE0NjYyMmU3MjQ3MTA2OWRkYWYzNjY2NDU= In Pennsylvania, another Democrat announced he's running for the seat of Rep. Joe Sestak, who's challenging Sen. Arlen Specter (D., Today). But <a href="http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2009/11/12/news/doc4afc8212904fa213677698.txt" target="_blank">take a look at why he's running</a>; it's not quite an advertisement for Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the current Democratic majority:</p> <blockquote> <p>Acknowledging voter frustration with the highest levels of federal government, state Rep. Bryan Lentz, D-161, of Swarthmore, said he would "stand up against powerful interests and stand on the side of regular people" in announcing his candidacy for the 2010 7th Congressional District race.<br /><br />“If you elect me to Congress, I will show you once again that I understand what it means to put service over self and I know what it means to fight for the people I represent,” Lentz told the 130 or so supporters packed into American Legion Post 214 Thursday morning for the announcement. “I won’t work for any political party and I won’t work for any political party boss.”<br /><br />Lentz said he understands people are legitimately angry with a federal government “that can bail out huge banks and corporations but struggles to keep people in their homes” and “spends too much on too many things while hardworking families are forced to tighten their belts.”<br /><br />“I will take the message to Washington to argue less and work more, to politic less and govern more, and to do what is necessary to improve the lives of the people that we represent in Washington,” he said. “I’ve been an Airborne Ranger, I’ve been a prosecutor, and I’ve been a legislator, and I am prepared to be a congressman.”</p> </blockquote> <p>Most of those statements wouldn't sound out of place at a Tea Party rally, would they?</p> <p>He's likely to go up against <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GnW8-71jJY&feature=player_embedded" target="_blank">former U.S. attorney Pat Meehan</a>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2YxYWM3NjE0NjYyMmU3MjQ3MTA2OWRkYWYzNjY2NDU= Fri, 13 Nov 2009 09:27:13 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzM4YTNiZGRlMDg2ZjNkYzQ3NTNmNDgzN2I1ODgxZDU= Here in Virginia, Bob McDonnell can't take office soon enough. Our current governor, Tim Kaine, is <a href="http://www.wtvr.com/news/wtvr-where-is-gov-kaine,0,6336349.story" target="_blank">out doing DNC fundraisers while a state of emergency is declared for flooding</a>.</p> <p>Sitting governors very rarely make good party chairs. Both of the tasks are full-time jobs.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzM4YTNiZGRlMDg2ZjNkYzQ3NTNmNDgzN2I1ODgxZDU= Fri, 13 Nov 2009 09:13:23 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzdhZDI1NDdiY2Q1NzYwYTc2OTY1YWJlMmM4ZTAzYWU= Interesting dichotomy: The week that Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D., Calif.) <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzQ0ZjdjNWZlNWRiMzRjNTc3MTM1YWQyZmRmZDUzNjQ=" target="_blank">calls for an IRS investigation</a> of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops for their efforts on abortion in the health-care bill, <a href="http://www.cair.com/ArticleDetails.aspx?ArticleID=26137&&name=n&&currPage=1&&Active=1" target="_blank">the Council on American-Islamic Relations claims</a> that federal prosecutors' effort to seize assets belonging to entities linked to the government of Iran, including a mosque and Islamic school in Potomac, Md., "could have a chilling effect on the religious freedom of citizens of all faiths."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzdhZDI1NDdiY2Q1NzYwYTc2OTY1YWJlMmM4ZTAzYWU= Fri, 13 Nov 2009 09:04:14 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDYxYTkyZjhjMTBkN2VjZWUyZTg3OTk3NmJhNDFlYWQ= One of the toughest tasks for Republicans in the 2010 cycle will be keeping the House seat of Mike Castle, who's running for the Senate in Delaware. But they have a candidate: <a href="http://whyy.org/cms/news/government-politics/2009/11/12/new-candidate-for-castles-seat/22796" target="_blank">businessman and political newcomer Frederick Cullis</a>.</p> <p>There are two Democrats definitely running, former lieutenant governor John Carney and transportation consultant Scott Spencer; there's also a bit of speculation that if Beau Biden, son of Vice President Joe Biden, doesn't run for his father's old Senate seat, he might run for the House seat.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDYxYTkyZjhjMTBkN2VjZWUyZTg3OTk3NmJhNDFlYWQ= Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:28:00 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODQ5NGJmYzhmZDVjZmNjYzMyNjM0MDJkYjgyM2YzNjE= My congressman, Jim Moran, has spent many years keeping the people of Alexandria and Arlington, Va., safe from <a href="http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=Y2I0MDdjOGZmMjhlZjY0MjI0NDYxMjRhOGVmMTBiNGY=" target="_blank">eight-year old carjackers and Jewish conspiracies to push America into war</a>.</p> <p>He has at least one Republican seeking to replace him in 2010: <a href="http://berry2010.com/" target="_blank">Matthew Berry</a>, a former clerk for U.S. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and Judge Laurence H. Silberman, and lawyer for the Department of Justice and the Federal Communications Commission.</p> <p>Sure, he sounds like he's got useful experience, but is he tough enough to take on <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTI3ZWIwMzNhMDdlZDMwMjc5ZjQ0NDAwODhlNmI0NTc=" target="_blank">the scourge of Viagra ads the way Moran did</a>?</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODQ5NGJmYzhmZDVjZmNjYzMyNjM0MDJkYjgyM2YzNjE= Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:14:44 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDljMjgwMzBhOTcyNmY4MzM3Mzc1MmI2ZWJhMWQyMjk= I'm reliably informed that Lang Sias is thinking about running for Congress against incumbent Democrat Ed Perlmutter of Colorado's 7th House district. He<span><em><span> </span></em><span>was the national veterans director for John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign; one of his recent columns can be found <a href="http://blog.bobbeauprez.com/2009/11/08/obama%E2%80%99s-afghanistan-deliberation-prudence-or-procrastination-by-lang-sias/" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></span></p> <p><span><span>He would have primary competition; <a href="http://www.frazierforcolorado.com/" target="_blank">Ryan Frazier</a>, who was thinking of running for Senate until Jane Norton jumped in, is already declared.</span></span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDljMjgwMzBhOTcyNmY4MzM3Mzc1MmI2ZWJhMWQyMjk= Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:02:50 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2I1MmUxMWEzNmRjMGFjYmZkYTJhYjM2ZmZjOGQ5ZTA= When an administration official begins a <a href="http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZWE1YjViMzVjNmVjYTdiNTA0MTk4NmNkMDIzZmU5YzQ=" target="_blank">sentence about what's going on with the Afghanistan decision</a>, "I’m not saying that we’ll be in a perpetual state of review, but--" doesn't anything that follows that "but" serve as some evidence that indeed, the administration does appear to be in a perpetual state of review?</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2I1MmUxMWEzNmRjMGFjYmZkYTJhYjM2ZmZjOGQ5ZTA= Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:55:28 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZWMzMGM5ZjlmZTU0ODJlODUyZTNkNzFlNWE1NjQ3MTg= Over the past few days, I've tried to spotlight some folks throwing their hats in the ring for congressional races in 2010. Chances are, the new candidates aren't quite taken into calculation in the <a href="http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2009-11-12_13-08-48.php" target="_blank">new Cook Political Report rating of competitive House races</a>.</p> <p>Of the 24 seats that the Cook Political report lists as "lean Democratic," 22 have a Partisan Voting Index ranging from R+1 to R+22, meaning that these are districts that vote Republican -- sometimes by a little, sometimes by a lot -- at the presidential level. (Basically, this indicates that voters in the district are open to voting Republican under the right circumstances.)<br /><br />Of the 12 currently Democrat-controlled seats listed as "toss up," eight have a PVI ranging from R+2 to R+18.<br /><br />Unsurprisingly, the three currently Republican-controlled seats listed as "toss up" range from D+4 to D+25 (Cao's seat in Louisiana).<br /><br />There are nine seats listed as "lean Republican"; three range from D+1 to D+3.<br /><br />Bottom line, there are plenty of House Democrats with reasons to sweat. There are a lot of perennials in this mix -- Chet Edwards, John Tanner, Baron Hill, Bart Gordon -- but it's been a while since those guys have faced such a challenging environment for reelection.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZWMzMGM5ZjlmZTU0ODJlODUyZTNkNzFlNWE1NjQ3MTg= Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:46:02 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWYxODUyYzM4MDFkMjI0ZTIzNzc5MjA4YmRjZjk2Yzc= <p class="MsoNormal">Take a look at how <a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php?xml=http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/content/xml/Obama44JobApproval.xml&choices=Approve,Disapprove&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=1&lines=1">Obama’s job-approval</a> numbers have shifted over the course of the year. After starting at the expected high levels at Inauguration, it started steadily sinking, first from January to March (euphoria wearing off), after which it leveled off a bit, and then steadily from about June to about August. Since then, it has stayed level, just north of 50 percent.<span> </span>Looking at his <a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/fav-obama.php">favorability rating</a>, it’s a similar high start, steady decline, then leveling off since summer.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Meanwhile, when respondents are asked about how President Obama is <a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-presobama-economy.php">handling the economy</a>, his approval rating has headed much more steadily south; he’s now averaging underwater, at 44.3 percent approval and 49.2 percent disapproval. The slide is also steady on <a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-presobama-health.php">health care</a>, where he’s now at 44.2 percent approval and 46.2 percent disapproval.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">I was talking about this split with one of my regulars, and he argued that a certain chunk of the public isn’t impressed with Obama -- they can see the rising unemployment rate, and the 2,000-page health-care bill baffles them -- but they don’t want to write him off just yet. Perhaps they feel it’s a bit early to hold him accountable for the state of the nation; perhaps they think rapid improvement is just around the corner; or perhaps they fear being called racist or hateful or a tea-party-related vulgar term for criticizing the president.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">My regular speculated that Obama’s current public-approval rating is balancing on a bubble of these hopeful-but-losing-faith supporters, and that the first time Obama really, irrefutably screws something up, his approval will plunge much more dramatically. (Sooner or later, every president irrefutably screws something up.)</p> <p class="MsoNormal">The White House's response to the Fort Hood shooting isn’t quite that screw-up. There were many great passages in <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/10/obama-ft-hood-speech-full_n_352633.html">Obama’s remarks at the memorial service</a>. But two days later, two passages jump out -- Obama’s declarations that these Americans being killed on American soil was “incomprehensible” and that “it may be hard to comprehend the twisted logic that led to this tragedy.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">With each passing day, the details about the Fort Hood shooter get clearer -- repeated communication between Hasan and an extremist figure in Yemen, web postings that appeared to justify suicide bombings, strange behavior at Walter Reed, and now perhaps <a href="http://hotair.com/archives/2009/11/12/breaking-hasan-wired-money-to-pakistan/">financial transfers to someone in Pakistan</a>.<strong> <span> </span></strong>Increasingly it seems Nidal Malik Hasan wasn’t afraid to fight a war; he just wanted to fight for the other side.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Pres. George W. Bush had his troubles throughout his second term, but his approval rating really dropped after Hurricane Katrina and his infamous “Brownie, you’re doing a heck of a job” utterance. Before that date, a lot of Americans who were troubled by Iraq had been willing to give Bush the benefit of the doubt because the government seemed to be handling its duties well -- no terrorist attacks on U.S. soil, etc. Once that perception of basic competence eroded, Bush’s poll numbers plummeted and never recovered.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">We were endlessly told about Obama’s calm, cerebral temperament during the presidential campaign. He cited the way his campaign operated as a sign he was ready to manage the giant, sprawling United States government. During the transition, the media wrote about the “Cult of Competency” <a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/white-house/polling-the-transition-obama-s.html">surrounding the Obama team</a>.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">A certain number of not-terribly-ideological voters out there evaluate their leaders by the simple question, “Is the government doing the job it’s supposed to be doing?” Reports that our national-security agencies and branches of the government were not communicating key information about potential threats makes us feel like we’re back where we started before 9/11. Finger-pointing, blame-shifting, and at the top, a leader who offers inspiring rhetoric but a certain vagueness about a fundamental question -- <em>why did this man pull the trigger?</em> -- suggest that the perception of basic competence under this administration may be on shaky ground.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Unemployment is beyond 10 percent, and Obama is offering a summit, the same solution he suggested for a dispute between a professor and a cop. While Americans worry about whether their job is safe and how they'll pay the rent, lawmakers on Capitol Hill are focused almost entirely on a gargantuan, incomprehensible health-care bill and a similarly complicated cap-and-trade bill. And now, there quite possibly was a jihadist, executing an attack on one of the largest U.S. military bases in the world, at the moment we're told the president wants more time to review his options on Afghanistan.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">The stage appears set for Obama's "heck of a job" moment.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWYxODUyYzM4MDFkMjI0ZTIzNzc5MjA4YmRjZjk2Yzc= Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:37:03 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzZlNjc4YWMzNzA5OGI3MzQ5ZDgzMGNmYjE3NWJjMzQ= There's something strange going on up in New York's 23rd congressional district, as noted by the <a href="http://www.tcotreport.com/madisoneds.pdf" target="_blank">TCOT guys</a>.</p> <p>Unless Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman got exactly zero votes in the town of Fenner (Owens got 157, Scozzafava got 248), and at one polling place in the town of Hamilton (Owens got 75, Scozzafava got 79), and at one polling place in the town of Sullivan (Owens got 173, Scozzafava got 251), the initial vote totals look rather hinky.<br /><br />By comparison, the lowest number of votes that Owens got at any polling place was 57; the lowest number the withdrawn candidate Scozzafava got was 2. It's not impossible that no one in any of those places chose to vote for Hoffman, but it certainly seems unusual for a guy who got 45 percent district-wide.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzZlNjc4YWMzNzA5OGI3MzQ5ZDgzMGNmYjE3NWJjMzQ= Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:42:45 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDgwNGE1MDMwZTc0MWZlMjljMDE0YWNjMzY4NDdmZTM= Yesterday, I mentioned the possibility that Colorado state legislator Josh Penry, no longer running for governor, might be interested in running for the U.S. House of Representatives in the state's 3rd district. <a href="http://www.chieftain.com/articles/2009/11/12/news/local/doc4afba31987ff7748909499.txt" target="_blank">A news story</a> that State Rep. Scott Tipton (R., Cortez) is now running for that seat includes this detail on Penry's interest, or previous lack of it:</p> <blockquote> <p>Tipton is not the only Republican aiming at Salazar next year. Glenwood Springs District Attorney Martin Beeson has been a declared candidate for months and Steamboat Springs lawyer Bob McConnell has recently joined the race.<br /><br />Tipton's announcement also comes in the same week that state Sen. Josh Penry, R-Grand Junction, backed out of the gubernatorial race, leaving the question of whether he was interested in the 3rd District, which includes all of the Western Slope but reaches east to include Pueblo.<br /><br />"Josh is one of the people who urged me to run again," Tipton said, indicating he didn't expect Penry to join the 3rd District contest.</p> </blockquote> <p>By no means am I endorsing, but I will observe that running a candidate whose name is spelled "B-O-B M-C-another letter-O-N-N-E-L-L" has worked well for Republicans lately.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDgwNGE1MDMwZTc0MWZlMjljMDE0YWNjMzY4NDdmZTM= Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:15:31 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjNkOTI4MDVlNmQ0ZWE3ODNhMzEzYzE1Y2NjMThhNDM= A reader in Nevada notices something on his television:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">Watching the local news in Reno -- there were Harry Reid ads in just about every segment and his message hammered one point home over and over: pork pork pork. Jobs for solar projects, jobs for road projects, jobs for whatever.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Whoever challenges him will need to make the point that the number of pork jobs created pales in comparison to the pounding that the hospitality and gaming industries have taken because of liberal economic policies.</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">I'd note that a heck of a lot of television advertising from New Jersey governor Jon Corzine helped him narrow the gap a great deal, but ultimately couldn't persuade voters to give him another term. Blanketing the airwaves can help you, but only so much.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjNkOTI4MDVlNmQ0ZWE3ODNhMzEzYzE1Y2NjMThhNDM= Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:43:26 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTBkOTUzZThiZjNiYTNjYjg1NTZlYTgwZjM5OTY5NWM= The <a href="http://www.60plus.org/" target="_blank">60 Plus Association</a> is running television ads hitting members of Congress for voting for the Pelosi health-care bill in eight districts (Snyder of Arkansas; Donnelly, Ellsworth, and Hill of Indiana; Pomeroy of North Dakota; Titus of Nevada; Perriello and Connolly of Virginia). They're phone-calling seniors in another seven districts.</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="425" height="344" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/SN5NT5_O9Is&hl=en_US&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/SN5NT5_O9Is&hl=en_US&fs=1&" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></embed> </object> </p> <p style="text-align: left;">"60 Plus," that's the percentage of the vote that the challengers in these districts are aiming for, right?</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTBkOTUzZThiZjNiYTNjYjg1NTZlYTgwZjM5OTY5NWM= Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:34:28 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTQ3YmVmNjYwZjkxODM0ZGEzYTExOWE2MmM0NjMzZTI= Boy, <a href="http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2009/11/its_not_over_recanvassing_shows_ny23_race.html" target="_blank">if this recanvassing</a> comes out with a big surge of votes for Doug Hoffman, a whole lot of post-election analyses are going to have to be rewritten:</p> <blockquote> <p>A recanvassing in the 11-county district shows that Owens’ lead has narrowed to 3,026 votes over Hoffman, 66,698 to 63,672, according to the latest unofficial results from the state Board of Elections. In Oswego County, where Hoffman was reported to lead by only 500 votes with 93 percent of the vote counted election night, inspectors found Hoffman actually won by 1,748 votes -- 12,748 to 11,000. The new vote totals mean the race will be decided by absentee ballots, of which about 10,200 were distributed, said John Conklin, communications director for the state Board of Elections.</p> </blockquote> <p>Note that Hoffman conceded the race on Election Night. This may get really interesting, or it may simply reveal that Bill Owens won with fewer votes than we thought.</p> <p>UPDATE: A few readers note that it would be really tough to make up a 3,000-vote margin in a three-way race among 10,000 absentee ballots.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTQ3YmVmNjYwZjkxODM0ZGEzYTExOWE2MmM0NjMzZTI= Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:25:34 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OGNmNjY3ZTRhNDdmNzgzMmNlYmUxMjNkMTkyYzc5ZjI= If you look back at the way New Jersey Democratic congressman John Adler came out early and said he was voting against the health-care bill in the House, you see some signs of nervousness. It's almost as if he felt like he was about to get blitzed or pancake blocked or something like that.</p> <p>You know, <a href="http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/34925/runyan-seriously-considering-running-house-seat" target="_blank">almost as if a former Philadelphia Eagles tackle was thinking about running for his seat in South Jersey</a>.</p> <p>A few years back, <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?page=hotread7/seifert" target="_blank">a survey of player</a>s found that getting blocked by Jon Runyan on a screen pass was one of the scariest things a player could face. Now imagine running for Congress against the guy.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OGNmNjY3ZTRhNDdmNzgzMmNlYmUxMjNkMTkyYzc5ZjI= Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:00:51 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWZlOTY5OTE4NzY1ZmQzYmRiOTNhODZhNjQ1MDlhYTc= Quinnipiac's <a href="http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1396"><em>second </em>eye-opening poll</a> of the day:</p> <blockquote> <p><span style=",helvetica,sans-serif;">For the first time, Republican Rob Portman is inching ahead of the two Democrats in the 2010 race for Ohio’s U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Also for the first time, Ohio voters disapprove 50 - 45 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, down from his 53 - 42 percent approval September 16 and 49 - 44 percent approval July 7. </span></p> <p><span style=",helvetica,sans-serif;">In still another first, voters are split 40 - 40 percent on who is doing a better job handling health care, the President or Congressional Republicans, the independent Quinnipiac University survey finds. In a September 16 survey on the same question, Obama was on top 49 - 28 percent.</span></p> <p><span style=",helvetica,sans-serif;">Ohio voters disapprove 53 - 42 percent of the way the President is handling the economy and disapprove 57 - 36 percent of the way he is handling health care. In September, they approved of his handling of the economy 48 - 46 percent and split on his handling of health care 44 - 45 percent.</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="New Roman; ">Gee, what could have prompted a sudden drop in Obama's numbers on handling health care?</span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWZlOTY5OTE4NzY1ZmQzYmRiOTNhODZhNjQ1MDlhYTc= Thu, 12 Nov 2009 08:45:55 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODRmOGZjMjZiYWE2NDA3ZmMyNWE3MmM2MDMxMmJlNTk= Quinnipiac's first <a href="http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1395">eye-opening poll</a> of the day:</p> <blockquote> <p>Former Connecticut Congressman Rob Simmons has an early lead in the Republican primary race for the 2010 U.S. Senate contest and runs better than any other challenger against Sen. Christopher Dodd, topping the Democratic incumbent 49 - 38 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.<br /><br />Former World Wrestling Entertainment executive Linda McMahon gets 43 percent to Sen. Dodd’s 41 percent, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds.  <br /><br />Even potential Republican contenders with almost no name recognition and almost no Republican primary voter support give Dodd a run for his money.<br /><br />Simmons leads a Republican primary matchup with 28 percent, followed by McMahon with 17 percent.  No other contender tops 9 percent and 36 percent are undecided.<br /><br />Connecticut voters disapprove 54 - 40 percent of the job Dodd is doing, compared to a 49 - 43 percent disapproval September 17, and say 53 - 39 percent that he does not deserve reelection.</p> </blockquote> <p>Next up, I expect Dodd will call his opponents "fat."</p> <p>The campaigns are crowing.</p> <p><span><span><span><span style="Narrow,Arial MT Condensed Light,sans-serif;"><span><span><span>Jim Barnett, campaign manager for Simmons for Senate, issued this statement:</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <blockquote> <p>Today's polling shows that despite millions spent by other candidates on advertising, which Rob Simmons has yet to air, he stands alone as the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination and is the only GOP candidate holding a commanding lead in a head-to-head challenge against Senator Dodd.</p> <p><span><span><span><span style="Narrow,Arial MT Condensed Light,sans-serif;"><span><span><span>Voters in Connecticut understand that Rob Simmons has dedicated his entire life to public service -- as an Army veteran, elected official and as Connecticut's Business Advocate -- and he is uniquely qualified to help solve the difficult challenges confronting the state and nation.  Although very encouraging, the only poll that counts is on Election Day, and it is Rob Simmons' demonstrated grassroots support that will ultimately carry the day and bring victory for Republicans and real change for Connecticut.</span> <br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </blockquote> <p>Meanwhile, McMahon campaign spokesman Ed Patru released this statement:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>We are pleased and encouraged with the results of this poll. In less than two months since Linda became a candidate for the U.S. Senate, she has risen from a virtual unknown, to a serious contender in this primary contest. In that time, Linda has attended more than 110 events around the state. Her commitment to meeting with party leaders, activists and voters across this state is paying off. She is without question the candidate with momentum. </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>People want a Senator in Washington who understands how to create jobs and grow the economy, and Republicans deserve a nominee whose commitment to fiscal conservatism doesn't waver from week to week, but is instead principled and consistent. Linda’s determination to reduce federal spending, bring the federal debt under control and restore trust in government is clearly resonating. And it’s very clear Connecticut Republicans are becoming increasingly aware that, more than anyone else, Linda is building a campaign capable of defeating Sen. Chris Dodd’s special interest-funded campaign machinery.</span></p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>UPDATE: The <a href="http://www.tomfoley2010.com/" target="_blank">campaign of Tom Foley</a> e-mails me to remind me that Quinnipiac shows their guy beating Dodd, 47 percent to 40 percent.<br /></span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODRmOGZjMjZiYWE2NDA3ZmMyNWE3MmM2MDMxMmJlNTk= Thu, 12 Nov 2009 08:39:08 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDhmM2JjYWM1YmUxNjMxOWM4MjMwMmUzOTc3NTZlZmU= <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/124235/New-Low-U.S.-Job-Optimism.aspx" target="_blank">Gallup gives us a "hope and change" update</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>U.S. job-market optimism has reached a new low, with only 8 percent of Americans saying now is a good time to find a quality job -- the lowest level since Gallup began tracking this measure in August 2001. Americans' optimism about this had begun to diminish even before the recession began to unfold two years ago, when 38 percent in November 2007 were optimistic, and there has been essentially no improvement since February of this year, when 9 percent held this view.</p> </blockquote> <p>Whoohoo! Stimulus!</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDhmM2JjYWM1YmUxNjMxOWM4MjMwMmUzOTc3NTZlZmU= Wed, 11 Nov 2009 15:18:39 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjEwOWY0OGVjMjVkMDVjODVmNTRkNTA5ZWI4ODI3ZTI= You know, "meet with the head of the Service Employees International Union" very rarely shows up in the president's official schedule -- <a href="http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2009/11/president_obama_official_sched_166.html" target="_blank">Lynn Sweet usually posts it on her blog</a> -- but somehow, he keeps showing up at the White House. <a href="http://nrd.nationalreview.com/article/?q=ZGFmMDY4NzdkMmIwZTQ1MzU2ZDA4NGZhNzJlNGU2MTE=" target="_blank">Twenty-one times between Inauguration Day and July 31</a>. I guess he's kind of like Waldo -- you have to spot him hiding in the background somewhere.</p> <p>(By comparison, Hillary Clinton's name is listed for only three visits.)</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjEwOWY0OGVjMjVkMDVjODVmNTRkNTA5ZWI4ODI3ZTI= Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:04:27 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTIyZThkN2I1MzhiM2Y3MzcxMDE1MWRjMDcwMTQxMzI= Here's <a href="http://www.mcall.com/news/all-a17_2malik.7082062nov11,0,4582700.story" target="_blank">another House candidate jumping in after the 2009 election</a>, and this guy's biography seems particularly intriguing:</p> <blockquote> <p>A former assistant Bucks County prosecutor and Marine reservist who served in Iraq announced his candidacy Tuesday for the Republican nomination for the 8th Congressional District.<br /><br />Dean Malik said it's time to return a Republican to the district and criticized the direction of the country since President Barack Obama was elected last year.<br /><br />''They have taken it upon themselves to reinvent, modify and tamper with this American dream,'' he said outside the Bucks County Courthouse in Doylestown. ''The American dream, which always stood for opportunity and freedom, is now being turned into an American dream of entitlements and handouts.''<br /><br />Malik, 38, of New Britain Township is a lawyer with Marshall, Dennehey, Warner, Coleman & Goggin in Philadelphia. He graduated from Villanova University Law School in 1997 and worked in the county district attorney's office from 2001-05. Married with three children, Malik is the son of immigrants; his father is from Pakistan, his mother from Lithuania.</p> </blockquote> <p>The Democratic incumbent, Patrick Murphy, won reelection handily last year but won his first House race in 2006 by less than one percentage point, about 1,500 votes.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTIyZThkN2I1MzhiM2Y3MzcxMDE1MWRjMDcwMTQxMzI= Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:16:44 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTAxNWUzNWY1NTA4M2YzOWNhMDgwMzE5YjcyMmVhYzQ= Running for Congress doesn't necessarily take two years of legwork, but most campaigns start getting set up about a year in advance. There have been rumors of an impending announcement around several potential Republican candidates, but as of this moment, none are official.</p> <p><a href="http://www.minnpost.com/politicalagenda/2009/11/04/13145/allen_quist_thinking_about_run_for_congress_in_1st_district" target="_blank">In Minnesota</a>, "Allen Quist, a former Republican state representative who's run for governor twice, appears to be well on the way to mounting a campaign to challenge DFL Congressman Tim Walz in the 1st District." The paperwork is being filed.</p> <p>The <a href="http://www.quistforcongress.com/" target="_blank">"Quist for Congress" web site</a> seems to suggest this isn't just idle speculation.</p> <p>In Pennsylvania, Rep. Paul Kanjorski is a longtime Democratic incumbent who looks almost politically bulletproof, unless he's got a really strong challenger. That strong challenger would be Hazelton mayor Lou Barletta, who ran against Kanjorski in 2008, led in several polls, and lost by only four percentage points, while Obama was winning the district by 15 percentage points. Barletta says he's thinking seriously about it, but <a href="http://www.standardspeaker.com/news/1.409126" target="_blank">hasn't made a decision yet</a>.</p> <p>Finally, in New York, Richard Hanna came within three points of knocking off Rep. Michael Arcuri last year, while Obama was narrowly winning the district. He <a href="http://www.uticaod.com/news/x311590135/Richard-Hanna-releases-a-statement-about-health-care" target="_blank">issued a statement on the health-care bill</a> passed by the House, calling it “well-intentioned but ill-conceived.” He said it's not a sign he's definitely running. . . .</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTAxNWUzNWY1NTA4M2YzOWNhMDgwMzE5YjcyMmVhYzQ= Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:11:15 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NGE3MTMwOTMyMjBiM2MxMTQ2Njg2MTk2ZmExMWMxYzk= It's not a disaster for the GOP, but it's a little frustrating to see so many good candidates up against each other in a House primary: Diggs Brown, a former Fort Collins, Colorado, city council member who just completed a year of active military duty overseas, <a href="http://www.coloradoan.com/article/20091110/NEWS01/911100324" target="_blank">is making his campaign for Congress official</a>.</p> <p>But he's up against state representative Cory Gardner of Yuma and University of Colorado regent Tom Lucero in the primary. Local Republicans rave about Gardner as a rising star, while Lucero fought the good fight in trying to get Ward Churchill out of the University of Colorado system.</p> <p>The winner of the primary scrum gets to take on Democrat Betsy Markey.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NGE3MTMwOTMyMjBiM2MxMTQ2Njg2MTk2ZmExMWMxYzk= Wed, 11 Nov 2009 11:28:35 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWZkZDNjZmU2MjJkYjgyNDdhMjBlZjY0MDc3MWZjYWI= I'm looking around for candidates jumping into House races in the aftermath of Election Day 2009 . . .</p> <p><a href="http://www.kentucky.com/news/local/story/1014526.html" target="_blank">In Kentucky</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>A former staffer of Gov. Ernie Fletcher announced Tuesday he will seek the Republican nomination for the 6th Congressional District seat . . . The Lexington lawyer is the first Republican to formally announce his candidacy for the seat held by Ben Chandler, D-Versailles. Barr formed an exploratory committee in September and had raised more than $185,000 by the end of September.</p> </blockquote> <p>In Wisconsin, <a href="http://www.postcrescent.com/article/20091107/APC0101/911070490/1979/APCbusiness/Fifth-Republican-joins-House-race" target="_blank">a fifth Republican</a> is challenging Democrat Steve Kagen.</p> <p>In Idaho, the NRCC is a big fan of Vaughn Ward, and he might have a clearer path to the GOP nomination, with <a href="http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2009/nov/10/gop-hopeful-withdraws-idaho-1st-cd-race/" target="_blank">one of his potential rivals withdrawing from the race</a>.</p> <p>In Michigan, Brian Rooney, <a href="http://www.catholicnewsagency.com/new.php?n=17649" target="_blank">a pro-life Republican attorney for the Thomas More Law Center</a>, is running for the seat of Democrat Mark Schauer; he'll face former congressman Tim Walberg in the primary. If his name seems familiar, it's because Brian's brother Tom is a Republican member of the House from Florida.</p> <p>Obviously, it's not a done deal, but you have to figure if Colorado state senate minority leader Josh Penry <a href="http://www.9news.com/news/article.aspx?storyid=126716&catid=339" target="_blank">decided to run for the House</a>, he would be a top-tier challenger:</p> <blockquote> <p>Some political pundits speculated when news of Penry's decision was first reported by The Washington Post that he would shift his attention to running for Congress in the 3rd Congressional District against Rep. John Salazar (D-Colorado). Penry said his whole focus until last week was on running for governor and the 40,000 miles he put on his car and the nearly $500,000 he raised for the race attests to that. He said he will sit down with his wife, Jamie, to discuss "the best way for us to serve" in the near future.</p> </blockquote> <p>Meanwhile, in New York, Rep. Carolyn Maloney <a href="http://www.observer.com/2009/politics/saujani-says-shes-going-challenge-maloney" target="_blank">will be getting a Democratic primary challenger</a>, a lawyer who raised $1 million for John Kerry in 2004.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWZkZDNjZmU2MjJkYjgyNDdhMjBlZjY0MDc3MWZjYWI= Wed, 11 Nov 2009 11:18:03 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2EyZGU3NTA0YjZmZDdmYjVkYmIyZjg2YmMxZTBkNjA= About a week ago, I took a <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2MxNmEwNThjMWY5NzI1NjdlZTg4OTVjMDc2MGFiYTI=" target="_blank">look at some incumbent Democratic governors</a> and found some of them looking Jon Corzine-y for 2010 -- weak job approval numbers, high unemployment, a sense among voters that promises haven't been kept and that they're not better off now than they were back in 2006 or so.</p> <p>This morning, <a href="http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1394" target="_blank">Quinnipiac</a> finds the outlook for Ohio Governor Ted Strickland looking pretty grim:</p> <blockquote> <p>Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's lead over John Kasich in the 2010 race for reelection has dropped into a 40 - 40 percent tie, with Ohio voters seeing the possible Republican challenger as better able to handle rebuilding the state economy and handling the budget, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.</p> <p>This compares to a 46 - 36 percent Gov. Strickland lead in a September 15 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University, up from 43 - 38 percent July 3.</p> <p>Ohio voters approve 45 - 43 percent of the job Strickland is doing, down from 48 - 42 percent September 15 and his lowest overall score ever. And by a 43 - 32 percent margin, voters say the Governor has not kept his campaign promises.</p> </blockquote> <p>Of course, things can change. <a href="http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1233" target="_blank">Back in November 2008</a>, Quinnipiac found Jon Corzine leading Chris Christie, 42 percent to 36 percent. But there was weakness in his support: Back then, New Jersey voters disapproved 46 percent to 43 percent of the job Gov. Corzine is doing, and by a 51 percent to 37 percent margin, said he did not deserve to be reelected.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2EyZGU3NTA0YjZmZDdmYjVkYmIyZjg2YmMxZTBkNjA= Wed, 11 Nov 2009 10:31:55 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmE5YTI0NGJmMTA3Zjc5ZjJmYmIzNTQxNTM5NGExMzE= One of my Delaware guys writes in with this interesting on-the-ground assessment:</p> <blockquote> <p>Last night at the 2009 Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, Beau Biden [state attorney general, son of the vice president and rumored Senate candidate] attended and had brief remarks in presenting a local award to a party activist. Two weeks ago it was rumored that Beau was going to make his formal announcement at this dinner -- with more than 1,000 Democratic faithful in attendance. <br /><br />Last night Attorney General Biden did not sound like a candidate for the US Senate. It is now rumored he will not make the Senate race (of course the Democrats will assert it had nothing to do with the NJ or VA results).<br /><br />The Delaware News Journal also recently had a clip in which Governor Markell (D) offered only lukewarm support toward a Biden Senate candidacy at a recent governor’s association meeting.<br /><br />I have said all along that Biden’s best move is to run for re-election as AG and inherit his father’s seat in 4 years when Castle has completed the term. (Castle will then be 74). Castle also recently appeared on Colbert and did a good job.</p> <p>Bill Clinton was the keynote speaker last night. He spoke entirely too long and mispronounced the name of our Governor. About 1 in 20 of his sentences resembled anything rooted in fact or reason. The theme of his speech was that “The American people call upon Democrats to get them out of Republican messes.” Clinton started with Johnson, Vietnam, and the start of inflation, which contradicted his thesis but he plowed ahead anyway.</p> </blockquote> <p>Apparently <a href="http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20091111/NEWS02/911110363" target="_blank">quite a few folks in the room expected it last night</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p><span><span style=",helvetica;">State Senate Pro Tempore Anthony DeLuca said he thought a Biden announcement was going to be in the night's program when he heard Markell's comment.</span></span></p> <p><span><span style=",helvetica;">"It's a good crowd to make an announcement in front of," DeLuca said.</span></span></p> <p><span><span style=",helvetica;">DeLuca said he thinks Biden would make an "excellent candidate," but he understands the need for him to think about the decision and mull his options.</span></span></p> <p><span><span style=",helvetica;">"You have to really wait for the candidate to make his mind up," DeLuca said.</span></span></p> </blockquote> <p><span><span style=",helvetica;"><span style="new roman,times;"><span>Obviously, the lack of an announcement last night doesn't mean Beau Biden <em>won't</em> run for Senate. But it does suggest he may be having a second thought or two . . .</span></span></span></span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmE5YTI0NGJmMTA3Zjc5ZjJmYmIzNTQxNTM5NGExMzE= Wed, 11 Nov 2009 09:50:17 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDExMWJjYmQ4YzVkODdlNzY5N2MzNDQxZDc1NTI4MDk= <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/124226/Republicans-Edge-Ahead-Democrats-2010-Vote.aspx" target="_blank">Gallup</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Republicans have moved ahead of Democrats by 48 percent to 44 percent among registered voters in the latest update on Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, after trailing by six points in July and two points last month.</p> </blockquote> <p>Independents now prefer the Republican candidate 52 percent to 30 percent.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDExMWJjYmQ4YzVkODdlNzY5N2MzNDQxZDc1NTI4MDk= Wed, 11 Nov 2009 07:19:22 -0400