http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com The Campaign Spot is National Review Online’s blog for all things political and campaign-related. The blog is written by Jim Geraghty, author of Voting to Kill: How 9/11 Launched the Era of Republican Leadership. en-us © National Review Online 2009. All Rights Reserved webmaster@nationalreview.com (NRO Webmaster) Sat, 07 Nov 2009 00:20:21 -0500 Sat, 07 Nov 2009 00:20:21 -0500 NRO RSS Generator v1.0 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss 5 http://www2.nationalreview.com/images/nro_rsslogo.jpg http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com 144 80 National Review Online webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGUzYjJjYmQ0ZDg3YjkwNjZkODExMWZjNzg1MjBhOTc= House Republicans note, "<span>As of today, at least 69 Democrats have expressed opposition to the Speaker’s health care bill."</span></p> <p><span>The Democrats have 258 seats and Cantor has said no Republican will vote for the bill. Pelosi can lose 40 and still have a bare 218-217 majority. Which 29 are going to have their arms twisted the most?</span></p> <p><span><a href="http://theconservatives.com/breaking_news/2009/11/election-day-tremors-shake-health-care-debate.html" target="_blank">John Adler of New Jersey will not be one of them</a>.</span></p> <p><span>Adler's congressional district includes parts of Burlington County, Ocean County, and Cherry Hill in Camden County.</span></p> <p><span>Republican Chris Christie won Burlington County Tuesday night by two percent after Corzine won it by five percentage points four years ago; Christie won 66 percent of the vote in Ocean County. Four years ago, Jon Corzine won Cherry Hill, 13,615 to 8,630. This year he won it 11,108 to 9,453.</span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGUzYjJjYmQ0ZDg3YjkwNjZkODExMWZjNzg1MjBhOTc= Fri, 06 Nov 2009 13:40:55 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OGEwNjY0MmRkZTY5ZjBkNmM0MzYyYzYwODE5MmY3YjE= Votes for Democrat Jon Corzine in Newark, New Jersey, in 2005: <strong>39,573.</strong><br /><br />Votes for Corzine in Newark in 2009, two days after Obama hosted a rally for him there: <strong>35,669.</strong><br /><br />Votes for Jon Corzine in Camden County in 2005: <strong>76,955.</strong><br /><br />Votes for Jon Corzine in Camden County in 2009, two days after Obama hosted a rally for him there: <strong>66,996.</strong><br /><br />Votes for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tim Kaine in Norfolk in 2005: <strong>27,791.</strong><br /><br />Votes for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds in Norfolk in 2009, roughly a week after Obama hosted a rally for him: <strong>24,004.<br /></strong><br />Never mind that Obama couldn't get Corzine and Deeds over the top; he couldn't ensure that they did as well as they or other Democrats did in the same races for the same offices four years ago, <em>in the heavily Democratic cities he appeared in.<br /></em><br />There's a valuable lesson for vulnerable Democrats sweating their votes on the health-care bill. If you vote yes, you will probably outrage right-leaning voters in your district, and many independents will fear you've made things worse.<br /><br />But sometime between now and Election Day 2010, President Obama will come to the biggest city in your district and hold a big rally. Thousands will turn out, you will dominate the news cycle, and it will be the best day of your campaign.<br /><br />And then, in all likelihood, <em>you will lose</em>, because everyone in that crowd of thousands was going to vote for you anyway, and what you won't see are the tens of thousands who didn't show up because they don't care that President Obama thinks you deserve to be reelected.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OGEwNjY0MmRkZTY5ZjBkNmM0MzYyYzYwODE5MmY3YjE= Fri, 06 Nov 2009 13:25:13 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjQ4MzJiNTU2M2NmNDg1ZjhhMzVjYjgzNTlmNGRhZTU= Like <a href="http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/politics/A-Disconnected-President.html" target="_blank">Robert George</a>, I was a little thrown when I saw President Obama giving a "shout-out" to somebody in the audience, moments before he discussed the Fort Hood shooting. Like <a href="http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTExN2ZmZjY0ZjBmMmFlMjgyMjkyMzM0NzI0N2IxOGQ=" target="_blank">Jonah</a>, I'm not sure this is something worth making too much fuss about; Obama will do worse things during his presidency than make some off-key remarks right before offering his first comments on a national outrage.</p> <p>But I'll note something mildly troubling about this, and it relates to something I've discussed with a few other righties lately. Back during the campaign, Joe Biden had said that Obama was going to be tested early in his presidency. Some might see the Iranian protests as his first test, or North Korea's increasingly regular missile launches, or the looming and seemingly ever-delayed decision on Afghanistan.Yet all of these events have seemed far away and fairly distant from the day-to-day life of average Americans.</p> <p>Yesterday's horrific shooting, with the ever-rising number of dead and wounded, was one of the few days this year where you felt the need to get to a television and stay updated on a rapidly developing crisis. Inevitably, life will offer more of these moments, and next time it may be more than one individual with murder on their mind.</p> <p>When the next crisis greets President Obama, I don't want him to drop the ball. Our friends on the left keep telling us about his great temperament, and feel certain he'll rise to the occasion in the face of hard calls, where time is of the essence, that would leave many men whimpering. I hope they're right.</p> <p>But right now the early indicators are a bit ominous. We're two months past the request for more troops in Afghanistan, and still waiting for a decision. The next decision might be, <em>"Mr. President, that unresponsive passenger jet is two minutes away from a heavily-populated area. But we can't confirm a hijacking, it might just be some unresponsive equipment. The National Guard pilots are awaiting your order to shoot it down."</em></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjQ4MzJiNTU2M2NmNDg1ZjhhMzVjYjgzNTlmNGRhZTU= Fri, 06 Nov 2009 09:49:50 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDcyNDY5MzhkM2YzMTVkODgxYWQwMmVmNmJiZTdiYjA= From the president's first prime-time press conference, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/09/us/politics/09text-obama.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all" target="_blank">back on February 9</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>QUESTION: -- how can the American people gauge whether or not your programs are working? Can they -- should they be looking at the metric of the stock market, home foreclosures, unemployment? What metric should they use? When? And how will they know if it's working or whether or not we need to go to a Plan B?</p> <p>MR. OBAMA: I think my initial measure of success is creating or saving 4 million jobs. That's bottom line number one, because if people are working, then they've got enough confidence to make purchases, to make investments. Businesses start seeing that consumers are out there with a little more confidence. And they start making investments, which means they start hiring workers.</p> <p><strong>So step number one, job creation. </strong></p> <p>Step number two, are we seeing the credit markets operate effectively? You know, I can't tell you how many businesses that I talk to that are successful businesses but just can't get credit. Part of the problem in Elkhart that I heard about today was the fact that this is the RV capital of America. You've got a bunch of RV companies that have customers who want to purchase RVs, but even though their credit is good, they can't get the loan.</p> <p>Now, the businesses also can't get loans to make payments to their suppliers. But when they have consumers, consumers can't get the loans that they need. So normalizing the credit markets is, I think, step number two.</p> <p>Step number three is going to be housing. Have we stabilized the housing market? Now, you know, the federal government doesn't have complete control over that. But if our plan is effective, working with the Federal Reserve Bank, working with the FDIC, I think what we can do is stem the rate of foreclosure and we can start stabilizing housing values over time.</p> <p>And the most -- <strong>the biggest measure of success is whether we stop contracting and shedding jobs, and we start growing again.</strong> Now, you know, I don't have a crystal ball, and as I said, this is an unprecedented crisis. But my hope is that after a difficult year -- and this year is going to be a difficult year -- that businesses start investing again, they start making decisions that, you know, in fact, there's money to be made out there; customers -- or consumers start feeling that their jobs are stable and safe, and they start making purchases again. And if we get things right then, starting next year, we can start seeing some significant improvement.</p> </blockquote> <p>We're coming up towards the end of that difficult year.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDcyNDY5MzhkM2YzMTVkODgxYWQwMmVmNmJiZTdiYjA= Fri, 06 Nov 2009 09:29:42 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTEzYzk2MDY0YmRhOWJjZDFjYzhiMTNmYzhjOTQ2Mzg= A moment ago, I heard, via XM, some talking head on CNBC insisting that the overall economic picture was "much better than it was six months ago" and repeating "lagging indicator" like he'd been struck with <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obsessive%E2%80%93compulsive_disorder" target="_blank">OCD</a>.</p> <p>This was all in response to a monthly jobs report that indicates the environment for those looking for work has gone <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm" target="_blank">from awful to really awful</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>The number of unemployed persons increased by 558,000 to 15.7 million. The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage point to 10.2 percent, the highest rate since April 1983. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 8.2 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 5.3 percentage points.</p> </blockquote> <p>The unemployment rate for the construction field keeps mocking those "shovel-ready" promises: Another 62,000 jobs in construction lost last month, with the average at 67,000 jobs lost per month for the last six months. It was worse in the preceding months, but that's not much comfort; the numbers were supposed to be going in the other direction. (That isn't preventing some ninny on Twitter insisting this is a sign of success for the administration.)</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTEzYzk2MDY0YmRhOWJjZDFjYzhiMTNmYzhjOTQ2Mzg= Fri, 06 Nov 2009 09:20:27 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzgwZGQwZGY1ZGE0Yzg3ZDk5M2Q5ODAwYTA0YTE3MTU= Over on the home page, I have <a href="http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YzYxNmNmOTA4NWFhODJlMDI3ZTk4NjJlNjNlYWIyOTI=" target="_blank">a piece that's probably counterintuitive and a bit depressing</a> for the Tea Party crowd. They've done everything anyone could ask in their efforts to stop Obamacare, but in the end, Democratic members of Congress may fear going into 2010 without a bill passed more than they fear going into 2010 with a bill passed against furious grassroots opposition.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzgwZGQwZGY1ZGE0Yzg3ZDk5M2Q5ODAwYTA0YTE3MTU= Fri, 06 Nov 2009 09:10:20 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjViYTRkNjU4MGVkZTAzNzYzMmZmMWQyMzYwNDUyOWE= When <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/05/opinion/05collins.html?_r=1" target="_blank">Gail Collins</a> calls Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds <em>"an inept candidate whose most notable claim to fame was experience in hog castration" </em>and outgoing New Jersey governor Jon Corzine <em>"an uncharismatic former Wall Street big shot who failed to deliver on his most important campaign promises while serving as the public face of a state party that specializes in getting indicted"</em> after the election, it's meaningless.</p> <p>If she really thought they were so abominable, you would think she would have mentioned it before Election Day.</p> <p>Liberal columnists for the <em>New York Times</em> can tolerate anything from a Democrat, except losing an election.</p> <p><a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmUwYjY2MTA0YWJmM2VkNjU2MmZjMzhiYzQwZGUyOGM=" target="_blank">As I said Tuesday</a>, Deeds's final appearance of the campaign had me warming up to him a bit. I think Collins actually owes Deeds an apology.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjViYTRkNjU4MGVkZTAzNzYzMmZmMWQyMzYwNDUyOWE= Fri, 06 Nov 2009 08:00:02 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWRiYjU1ZDg2NjkzMmM0MDBhNmQ5ZGM3ZmI0ZTEyYWY= Yeah, perhaps former New York governor George Pataki -- one of <em>National Review</em>'s <a href="http://nrd.nationalreview.com/article/?q=NjJiYjdiMDg2NDc4OTQwNzQ2ZWQ4YzM4NTliODFjMmQ=" target="_blank">all-time least favorite Republicans when he was in office</a> -- should <a href="http://blogs.abcnews.com/george/2009/11/manchesters-new-gop-mayor-hears-from-2012-hopefuls.html" target="_blank">rethink his priorities</a>: "While he has not made a final decision on a Senate run, Pataki has told at least one major GOP donor in private that he is not interested in becoming a senator at the age of 64 and would rather run for president in 2012."</p> <p>Really? Because I suspect a lot of New York Republicans might find a "Senator Pataki" pretty appealing, at a moment when "President Pataki" feels pretty darn farfetched . . .</p> <p>Back when I was a tadpole at <em>Congressional Quarterly</em>, I remember hearing that Pataki was interested in the 2000 Republican presidential nomination from a Republican strategist/manager who has since gone on to great things, including one very recent, very big GOP win. Pataki's alleged interest never amounted to anything serious, of course, but I figure if you have the ambition to be a three-term governor, you have the ambition to be a president . . .</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWRiYjU1ZDg2NjkzMmM0MDBhNmQ5ZGM3ZmI0ZTEyYWY= Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:26:05 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWY3MTk1YjVjODhmZTkzNWQwYmJhYWNlNTNhZmZjMTA= <a href="http://www.pollster.com/blogs/ca_2010_sen_ratings_surveyusa.php" target="_blank">The good news</a> for those who would prefer that California not be represented by Barbara Boxer in the Senate: She has a favorable rating of 33 percent and an unfavorable rating of 37 percent .</p> <p>The bad news for those who would prefer that California not be represented by Barbara Boxer in the Senate: Carly Fiorina's favorable rating is at 11 percent and her unfavorable is at 24 percent; Chuck DeVore's favorable rating is at 8 percent and his unfavorable is at 15 percent.</p> <p>The experience of Corzine suggests that incumbents with high unfavorable ratings should be nervous. But there's a great deal of work ahead for Fiorina and DeVore.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWY3MTk1YjVjODhmZTkzNWQwYmJhYWNlNTNhZmZjMTA= Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:21:49 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjE3MGZkZWM0NDM4ZjdkNmMwMWYzOTkzYWJjOTExNTI= Just file <a href="http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/thegaggle/archive/2009/10/30/why-corzine-will-probably-win-in-new-jersey.aspx" target="_blank"><em>Newsweek</em>'s "Why Corzine Will Probably Win" article</a> away, to be brought out eleven and a half months from now, when we are reading <em>Newsweek'</em>s articles on "Why Dodd Will Probably Win" or "Why Deval Patrick Will Probably Win" or "Why Harry Reid Will Probably Win" or "Why Democrats Will Probably Keep the House, Comfortably" . . .</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjE3MGZkZWM0NDM4ZjdkNmMwMWYzOTkzYWJjOTExNTI= Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:17:18 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NThmNWJlZjg5ODJhNDIyYTFhNGY1YWVmZDIyNTRkYjI= More reason for Maryland governor Martin O'Malley to worry that Virginia's political shift <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS43817+05-Nov-2009+PRN20091105" target="_blank">might jump the Potomac next year</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>--39 percent of voters polled say they want to see Gov. O'Malley re-elected, but 48 percent say they would like for someone new to win . . .<br /><br />--O'Malley scores majority support on only one of 11 key state issues tested: 54 percent approval for "living up to high standards of ethics"<br /><br />--On seven of the 11 issues tested, O'Malley scored less than 40 percent approval: holding down state taxes, bringing new jobs to Maryland, managing the state budget, bringing people together to solve problems, putting Maryland's interest above partisan politics, keeping in touch with average citizens, and protecting consumers against high electric utility rates.</p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NThmNWJlZjg5ODJhNDIyYTFhNGY1YWVmZDIyNTRkYjI= Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:56:31 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWE0MzY5OGFiZTNjNDJjNWUyMmJkMTlhM2ZiYmNiYWU= Charlie Crist, the governor of Florida who wants to be its next senator, is probably going to regret telling Wolf Blitzer, while discussing the stimulus recently, “<span style="font-family: ">Well, I didn't endorse it. I — you know, I didn't even have a vote on the darned thing. But I understood that it was going to pass and I wanted to be able to utilize it for the benefit of my fellow Floridians.”</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ">His primary challenger, Marco Rubio was ready for this:</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="425" height="344" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/hkt-8xXZTh0&hl=en&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/hkt-8xXZTh0&hl=en&fs=1&" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed> </object> </p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWE0MzY5OGFiZTNjNDJjNWUyMmJkMTlhM2ZiYmNiYWU= Thu, 05 Nov 2009 11:04:35 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2MxNmEwNThjMWY5NzI1NjdlZTg4OTVjMDc2MGFiYTI= This morning's <em>Washington Post</em> <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/04/AR2009110404698.html" target="_blank">quotes Robert Ehrlich</a>, former governor of Maryland, saying he's thinking of running for that office again, telling the paper he plans to conduct polls and convene focus groups in coming weeks to help determine whether a rematch with Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) might be winnable.</p> <p>Maryland Democrats will probably scoff at the idea that a Republican win by 18 percentage points in a neighboring state should mean something to them. But Maryland's unemployment rate is 7.2 percent; the month O'Malley beat Ehrlich, it was 3.6 percent. It's quite possible that things will be only marginally better, the same, or worse a year from now; Ehrlich could probably get quite a bit of traction on, "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"</p> <p>I asked a Republican who's watching the 2010 governors' races which Democratic incumbents reminded him the most of Jon Corzine -- i.e., not-terribly-popular governors in states with high unemployment and an increasingly cranky, anti-incumbent-minded electorate. He said that <span style="Grande;"><span>if the electorate breaks in November 2010 the way it did Tuesday, we will see Republican victories in . . .</span></span></p> <p><span style="Grande;"><span><strong>Massachusetts: </strong>Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick has had miserable approval ratings some months; the Republicans interested </span></span>in his job include Charles D. Baker Jr. and Christy P. Mihos; Tim Cahill is expected to run as an independent. One wonders if the experience of Chris Daggett will suggest that third-party bids are unlikely to save embattled incumbents.</p> <p><span style="Grande;"><span>The Bay State's unemployment rate is currently 9.3 percent; it was 4.3 percent the month Patrick won.<br /></span></span></p> <p><span style="Grande;"><span><strong>New York:</strong> Obviously, this depends greatly on whether Rudy Giuliani runs on the Republican side, and whether Andrew Cuomo runs on the Democratic side. Incumbent David Paterson looks like toast; former congressman Rick Lazio is also running, but appears likely to face a steep uphill climb.</span></span></p> <p><span style="Grande;"><span>Four years ago, New York elected Eliot Spitzer their governor, at a time when the unemployment rate was 4.2 percent; today it is 8.9 percent.<br /></span></span></p> <p><span style="Grande;"><span><strong>Ohio: </strong>Gov. Ted Strickland's numbers have looked okay some months, and not so good in others; he's drawn a top-tier challenger in former congressman John Kasich. The state's Democratic party is saying <a href="http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/national_world/stories/2009/11/05/copy/portend.ART_ART_11-05-09_A3_I4FJ204.html?adsec=politics&sid=101" target="_blank">they expect a close race next year</a>.<br /></span></span></p> <p><span style="Grande;"><span>Unemployment in Ohio was 5.2 percent the month Strickland won; it is now 10.1 percent.<br /></span></span></p> <p><span style="Grande;"><span><strong>Illinois: </strong>Pat Quinn has only been governor since the beginning of the year, and he'll face at least one primary challenger in Dan Hynes, and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_gubernatorial_election,_2010" target="_blank">quite a few Illinois Republicans</a> are actively seeking the gubernatorial nomination or thinking about it.<br /></span></span></p> <p><span style="Grande;"><span>The unemployment rate in Illinois was 3.9 percent the month that the state proudly (heh) reelected Rod Blagojevich; it was 10.5 percent in September.<br /></span></span></p> <p><span style="Grande;"><span><strong>Iowa: </strong>Chet Culver was looking okay until former governor Terry Branstad, the longest-serving governor in Iowa history, indicated he was interested in moving back in to his old address. Branstad polls exceptionally well in a state that had been trending heavily Democrat.</span></span></p> <p><span style="Grande;"><span>Iowa's unemployment situation isn't as bad as that of some other states, but they've seen a jump; the unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in November 2006, and it was 6.7 percent in September. <br /></span></span></p> <p><span style="Grande;"><span><strong>Colorado:</strong> Bill Ritter has yet to top former congressman Scott McInnis in any poll conducted in 2009. Obviously, that could change, and McInnis will face some primary opposition, including state senator Josh Penry, before taking on Ritter. But Ritter has reason to sweat with rather mediocre approval ratings.</span></span></p> <p><span style="Grande;"><span>Unemployment in Colorado was 3.9 percent in November 2006; it was 7 percent in September.<br /></span></span></p> <p><span style="Grande;"><span>This Republican also sees Maryland as very competitive if Ehrlich gets in.</span></span></p> <p><span style="Grande;"><span>This Republican thinks the only Democrats who look well-positioned for 2010 are John Lynch in New Hampshire and Mike Beebe in Arkansas.</span></span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2MxNmEwNThjMWY5NzI1NjdlZTg4OTVjMDc2MGFiYTI= Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:17:01 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjQ2ZWEwZGQ1ZmIxNzg0ZGFhNjUxMzllNTU1MjllMmI= Today at noon, organizers are hoping for thousands of citizens to gather on the steps of the U.S. Capitol aiming to send the message to Congress, "Hands off my health care!" They aim to bring tens of thousands more to rallies at district offices all across the country.</p> <p>Rep. Michele Bachmann (R., Minn.) declares, "The American people spoke loud and clear at town hall meetings across the country throughout August, but it appear that Congress didn't hear a word that they had to say!"</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="425" height="344" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/IYsaaBiONdI&hl=en&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/IYsaaBiONdI&hl=en&fs=1&" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></embed> </object> </p> <p style="text-align: left;">She describes the government takeover of health care as "gangster government at its worst."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjQ2ZWEwZGQ1ZmIxNzg0ZGFhNjUxMzllNTU1MjllMmI= Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:03:59 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODAwZWVhOGE5NWQ2YWZlZDdlOTg4NjU3ZGI4Y2FkOTk= Three prominent Democrats went before the voters yesterday without an appearance on their behalf by President Obama: NY-23 congressional candidate Bill Owens (who hosted Joe Biden), CA-10 congressional candidate John Garamendi, and New York City mayoral candidate Bill Thompson.</p> <p>Owens won, Garamendi won, and Thompson came within 4 percentage points of a guy who spent more than $110 million.</p> <p>Meanwhile, the two guys who did everything they could to attach themselves to Obama lost badly.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODAwZWVhOGE5NWQ2YWZlZDdlOTg4NjU3ZGI4Y2FkOTk= Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:31:55 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZWYxYjM4ODYyY2M1MjAzYzc4NDk3NDhjMWFkMGY2Y2M= "The West is tough terrain for Democrats." That's <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/11/04/democrats.west/index.html" target="_blank">CNN's headline</a>, on a story discussing a new poll finding Western states "give President Obama his lowest approval ratings, and the Democratic Party has a 45 percent approval rating in the area -- the only region in the country in which it gets under 50 percent.".</p> <p>Seeing that headline a day after Republicans enjoyed big wins in governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia, one can't help but notice the <em>East </em>isn't looking so hot, either.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZWYxYjM4ODYyY2M1MjAzYzc4NDk3NDhjMWFkMGY2Y2M= Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:19:10 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjQwMjQyY2VlYjk4N2ZkM2NiODY2ZDVjMmMxODRkZTA= Mark Kirk's <a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/eye-on-2012/il-sen-kirk-seeks-palin-endors.html" target="_blank">very public message to Sarah Palin</a>, asking for an endorsement in his bid for Illinois's Senate seat in 2010, doesn't ipso facto mean that he thinks he would lose a primary to a conservative challenger without her seal of approval. But he knows that her thumbs-up could cut off any serious primary rival at the knees.</p> <p>So he'll kiss the ring or anything else he has to kiss to avoid a money, energy, and time-consuming GOP primary fight. Is she King-Maker? Not quite; but she's Primary-Nullifier.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjQwMjQyY2VlYjk4N2ZkM2NiODY2ZDVjMmMxODRkZTA= Wed, 04 Nov 2009 15:44:02 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjQwYWQ4Y2E5NDkyM2IxZGMwYzgwNDc3YzhiNjY3YzE= One of the spins we'll be hearing quite a bit in the coming days is that because neither Bob McDonnell nor Chris Christie spent a lot of time talking about social issues, it means social conservatism is dead or dying, and only a libertarian-ish economically conservative, socially liberal approach can bring victories to the GOP.<br /><br />Balderdash, of course. Neither Bob McDonnell or Chris Christie spent a lot of time talking about social issues because they had the good sense to recognize that their states were in deep recession and that unemployment was rising. In addition, McDonnell recognized that northern Virginians were fed up with long commutes and endless promises of improving roads with no real action, while Christie recognized that ever-rising property taxes and a runaway and rampant culture of corruption were driving New Jerseyans to look for better lives elsewhere.<br /><br />The Democrats, Jon Corzine and Creigh Deeds, did everything they could to spotlight their opponents' views on social issues, in particular abortion and guns -- ads, speeches, surrogates, attack web sites . . .<br /><br />And in the end, it got them diddly-squat. As noted below, a staunchly pro-life attorney general did exceptionally well in northern Virginia.<br /><br />The lesson is, pay attention to what's worrying voters the most. The vast majority of voters in both states said in exit polls last night that they're very worried about the economy. <br /><br />The GOP message in the coming weeks, months, and probably year is going to be JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS . . . .</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjQwYWQ4Y2E5NDkyM2IxZGMwYzgwNDc3YzhiNjY3YzE= Wed, 04 Nov 2009 12:56:03 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTdiNjM3MWRiMThiYzliNTg2MTFjNzA0MWMwYmY3ZjA= Carly Fiorina writes in the <a href="http://www.ocregister.com/articles/work-people-california-2635660-every-government" target="_blank"><em>Orange County Register</em></a> about why she's running for Senate in California.</p> <p>One might argue that after Corzine's defeat and Bloomberg's close shave last night, it's the wrong time for former CEOs to throw their hats in the ring. But they were Wall Street incumbents in economically depressed regions, and they had records to run on -- terrible in Corzine's case and "meh" in Bloomberg's. Fiorina isn't Wall Street but Silicon Valley, and is running on what she'll do, not what she's done.</p> <p>My e-mail box periodically gets e-mail ripping or dismissing Fiorina, and it's not entirely from Chuck DeVore's guys. But I'd note that Fiorina is doing this the way a political newcomer is supposed to -- hiring staff, laying out positions, and running in a primary. If she's the best candidate, she'll win; if she isn't, DeVore will win.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTdiNjM3MWRiMThiYzliNTg2MTFjNzA0MWMwYmY3ZjA= Wed, 04 Nov 2009 12:27:25 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzA1MTE4ZWJlMDM0YmYyMjNlZWVjYmUzODdiMDM4NGE= It is pretty darn astounding that with all of the insistence from the White House that Fox News Channel is "not a real news network," their preferred channel, MSNBC, <a href="http://www.olbermannwatch.com/archives/2009/11/where_in_the_wo.php" target="_blank">did not have live coverage at 10 p.m. Eastern on ELECTION NIGHT</a>. They reran Olbermann's 8 p.m. coverage, which was, of course, two hours out of date.</p> <p>No, really, when you stop covering the news, people can legitimately say you're not a news network. That has nothing to do with percieved bias or ideology (although we can speculate as to why Olbermann disappeared from the 10 p.m. coverage, where he was previously expected); it's because you're not actually bringing any new information to viewers.</p> <p>UPDATE: Mediaite reports that Olbermann "was visiting his dad in the hospital, which accounted for his absence." That explains why he wasn't there, but not why the network reverted to rerun programming on an Election Night. New York's 23rd District was still being counted, and New Jersey had just been called!</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzA1MTE4ZWJlMDM0YmYyMjNlZWVjYmUzODdiMDM4NGE= Wed, 04 Nov 2009 10:54:35 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjJiMzI4ZGZhMTZmODdlZWZlYTM4YzVhMjg0YzVhMzU= <p class="MsoNormal">The Republicans had a good, but not great night, but only one result made me leap out of my chair in the NRA News studio and dance around the room: Chris Christie’s win in New Jersey. (Video is <a href="http://www.nranews.com/#/news" target="_blank">here at 1:16 under the Wilcow Majority segment</a>, but much of the running around the room was off-camera. Indulge me; the other fat guy in New Jersey who I’ve put my faith in, New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan, has been hit-and-miss so far this year.)</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Christie’s victory -- quintupling Christie Whitman’s margin -- is a big vindication for a team that had been increasingly doubted in recent weeks -- Christie, <span>campaign manager</span> Bill Stepien, Christie's campaign chairman State Sen. Joe <span>Kyrillos</span> (R., Monmouth), strategists Mike DuHaime and Maria Comella, as well as New Jersey GOP chair Jay Webber.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">The coat-tails weren't quite as large as McDonnell's in Virginia, but it was still a good night for the GOP: Down ballot, Republicans picked up one State Assembly seat, won control of the Monmouth County Board of Freeholders, and won Freeholder seats in Bergen, Passaic, and Cumberland counties.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Much of these past weeks, my e-mail box received messages from frustrated New Jersey conservatives, many lamenting that Christie was “blowing the race.” He was inevitably considered to be too defensive, too reactive, not focusing sufficiently on this issue or that issue. Throughout this, I noted that Christie was getting hammered by millions upon millions of negative ads, and that those attacks required responses, which took Christie off of his preferred messages and themes.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Well, it appears Team Christie had at least some idea of what they were doing. Considering Christie's win in usually Democratic counties like Middlesex and Gloucester, and his ability to run up high margins in traditionally GOP counties, it's hard to see many spots where they left potential Christie votes uncast. And we were right to keep an eye on Corzine’s miserable standing in polls all year, usually topping out at 42 percent; on Election Day, he had 45 percent. Much of the past few weeks, New Jersey Republicans told me that support for independent Chris Daggett would shrink significantly on Election Day. They were right; it’s harder to vote third-party in the actual voting booth than it is when a pollster calls.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Chris Christie enters his office with a huge plate of problems awaiting him; there are Augean stables to be cleaned out. But for him and his supporters, this is a moment to savor.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjJiMzI4ZGZhMTZmODdlZWZlYTM4YzVhMjg0YzVhMzU= Wed, 04 Nov 2009 10:34:17 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmUyZTgyNGQ2YWRmOGU3NTdhNzhhZWMyMTkyODk5YWE= I love how every Election Day gives us some new way of completely obliterating the conventional wisdom: spending $110 million on your campaign for mayor guarantees a big win; high turnout in Maine for a gay-marriage referendum is good news for gay-marriage proponents; the inner-city vote in New Jersey's cities will always find enough votes to put a Democrat over the top.</p> <p>Finally, it was widely accepted that a deeply conservative candidate like Ken Cuccinelli couldn't be competitive in northern Virginia. The editorial board of the <em>Washington Post</em> declared him part of the "far-right fringe" and a "bigot" who would be an "embarrassment" as attorney general. He got more than 47 percent in Fairfax County, 49.5 percent in Fairfax City, 58 percent in Loudoun County, 56 percent in Prince William County, 60 percent in Manassas City and Manassas Park City.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmUyZTgyNGQ2YWRmOGU3NTdhNzhhZWMyMTkyODk5YWE= Wed, 04 Nov 2009 09:49:54 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjIzYTQ1NzEyZTAwYjVhZjUxNjc5ZGUyMzQ4NmIwODQ= So in a year where New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg wins by a small margin while spending more than ever, where Republicans win Virginia by their best margin ever, and where the Republicans have their best New Jersey governor's race since 1985 . . . how did the Conservative candidate come up short in New York 23? <br /><br />Well, perhaps <a href="http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091023/OPINION01/310239957/-1/OPINION" target="_blank">Hoffman's botching of an interview with the <em>Watertown Daily Times</em> editorial board</a> should have been a red flag.<br /><br />We junkies of national politics overlook local issues way too easily.<br /><br />No one ever really asked the voters of this district whether they wanted their House race to be a national fight. I'm slated to appear on Fred Thompson's radio program today, and I'm a fan of him, and Sarah Palin, and all of the other big-name conservatives who jumped in to beat the drum for Hoffman. But maybe the locals wanted more than criticism of Obama and Pelosi and spending. Maybe the fact that he lived on the other side of the district line rankled with them.<br /><br />Even his staunchest supporters called him "<a href="http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1933355,00.html" target="_blank">soft-spoken</a>"; maybe this was a signal that he lacked a bit in the personal charisma, reputation, name recognition, and other qualities that politicians usually bring. A lot of folks are in love with the concept of candidates who are not professional politicians, just regular folks, but in the end, campaigning is a skill that doesn't often come naturally. Maybe Hoffman could have used a bit of practice before jumping into a high-stakes race.</p> <p>Winning 46 percent of the vote, and coming 4,000 or so votes short, is nothing to be ashamed of. But there are primaries for a reason. In less than a year, Doug Hoffman will have his chance to win a Conservative and/or Republican nomination the old-fashioned way.</p> <p>UPDATE: In contrast to the GOP victories in Virginia and New Jersey, it suggests that the mission for the Tea Party crowd is going to be a little tougher than it looked a few days ago. It's not impossible; clearly, the atmosphere is not 2008, and Republicans can win in areas where they haven't been competitive in years (Middlesex County, New Jersey; Fairfax County, Virginia). But it takes more than ads from the Club for Growth and a Palin Facebook endorsement and a lot of praise from bloggers and a lot of denouncing high spending and Nancy Pelosi. All of those things can take you part of the way, but it takes more to put a candidate over the top.</p> <p>Or maybe special House elections are just wacky.</p> <p>ANOTHER UPDATE: A couple readers are construing this post as pro-Scozzafava, which it isn't my aim.</p> <p>My point is that there are a lot of voters in this district who don't care much about the opinions of Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson, Dick Armey, you, me, etc. They care about widening the St. Lawrence Seaway, redevelopment around Plattsburgh Air Force Base, highway plans between Watertown and Plattsburgh, etc. -- stuff that you and I have no or little opinion and little knowledge about. In retrospect, it looks a little embarrassing to look back and <a href="http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091023/OPINION01/310239957/-1/OPINION" target="_blank">read Dick Armey dismissing</a> "regional concerns as 'parochial' issues that would not determine the outcome of the election."</p> <p>A better Conservative candidate would have been fluent in both local and national issues.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjIzYTQ1NzEyZTAwYjVhZjUxNjc5ZGUyMzQ4NmIwODQ= Wed, 04 Nov 2009 09:23:31 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjQwNDFiYmE3YWU5ZDAwMmQzMjQ4ZjVlOGFmYjQ0OTc= The <em>Washington Post</em>'s <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/03/AR2009110303069.html?hpid=opinionsbox1" target="_blank">editorial</a> greeting Governor-elect Bob McDonnell could have used some more humble pie. He swept your circulation area, Posties, except for Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church. He carried Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Loudoun County, Prince William County, Manassas, and Manassas Park.</p> <p>A year ago, Obama carried Fairfax County (with 60 percent!), Loudoun County, Manassas, and Prince William County.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjQwNDFiYmE3YWU5ZDAwMmQzMjQ4ZjVlOGFmYjQ0OTc= Wed, 04 Nov 2009 09:01:59 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzM5MjBhNGRjZjJlYWNmZWQ4ZjQxYTdjMzY4MGIyNDY= All day long, folks on Twitter noted the reports of high turnout in Maine for their statewide initiative on gay marriage, and figured it was good news for proponents of gay marriage. Maybe not. The "Yes" vote, which keeps the ban, is ahead, <a href="http://www.bangordailynews.com/electionresults.html" target="_blank">roughly 52-48</a>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzM5MjBhNGRjZjJlYWNmZWQ4ZjQxYTdjMzY4MGIyNDY= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:48:37 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTM2ZDU4ZjA0Y2I4ZWNjM2E4OTA2ZGU5YmVjYTRkMWE= In California's special House election, Democrat John Garamendi leads by 9 percent over Republican David Harmer, but that's with less than 1 percent of the precincts reporting.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTM2ZDU4ZjA0Y2I4ZWNjM2E4OTA2ZGU5YmVjYTRkMWE= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:26:01 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDQ2MDg1YTNhM2NkNTljOWFjMDAzOTg5YmQ3NTkxZjk= The White House would like you to forget this Creigh Deeds flyer:</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www2.nationalreview.com/dest/2009/10/28/528cb7aea2946ebc44fd7fff465b241c.jpg" alt="A Deeds flyer that is almost entirely Barack Obama." width="550" height="429" /></p> <p>And they want you to forget <a href="http://politics247.wordpress.com/2009/10/07/governor-corzine-tries-to-appeal-to-voters-by-changing-his-name/" target="_blank">this billboard</a>:</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www2.nationalreview.com/dest/2009/11/02/1547aeee135d93cb092d5c55f780f80f.jpg" alt="An Obama-Corzine billboard." width="550" height="305" /></p> <p>However,  with New York's Special House election looking very close but the Democrat leading, Vice President Biden would like you to remember this <a href="http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/11/02/biden-says-ny-23-can-teach-conservatives-a-lesson/" target="_blank">CNN</a>:</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www2.nationalreview.com/dest/2009/11/02/92c855b62ab2407d86836a34a9cd7147.jpg" alt="Joe Biden, campaigning with Owens." width="292" height="219" /></p> <p>Remember, whatever happens on Election Day, no result could possibly ever suggest that Barack Obama and his administration is not as popular, as persuasive, as well-liked or as influential as he was a year ago. Never, ever, ever.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDQ2MDg1YTNhM2NkNTljOWFjMDAzOTg5YmQ3NTkxZjk= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:10:16 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTRiNzBhOGZjZGE5Zjc3YmE0YjhjYzhmM2ZmY2U3NjE= Right now, Republicans are projected to knock off seven Democratic incumbent state delegates in Virginia.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTRiNzBhOGZjZGE5Zjc3YmE0YjhjYzhmM2ZmY2U3NjE= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:04:24 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTNmNmRlYTg0ZTZmOWJhYjFhZmFkNWVhZGJmN2M5NjE= Republicans have gained at least one seat in New Jersey's State Assembly, with Domenick DiCicco leading right now.</p> <p>UPDATE: Arrogance, defined: WNBC reports that Corzine has called Christie to concede -- but he hasn't prepared a concession speech for tonight.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTNmNmRlYTg0ZTZmOWJhYjFhZmFkNWVhZGJmN2M5NjE= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 22:48:54 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWE2ZWI4NmEwYzE0OGJjNDcwZTZiOTZiMWQzOTkwYWY= This is astounding: In New York City's mayoral race, two-term incumbent Mike Bloomberg is at 49.8 percent to Democrat William Thompson Jr.'s 46.9 percent, with 86 percent of precincts reporting.<br /><br />Bloomberg spent at least $100 million, and perhaps when all is said and done, $110 million to $140 million. Too bad his effort was so underfunded.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWE2ZWI4NmEwYzE0OGJjNDcwZTZiOTZiMWQzOTkwYWY= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 22:40:50 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzAzYzIwNGE4NTE1OTQ2MTUyNTE3NDA1NzU4NzMzYzE= The Associated Press calls New Jersey for Chris Christie. Will others follow?</p> <p>Christie's lead is up to 6 percent....</p> <p>UPDATE: I waited until other sources were confirming -- NBC called Christie the winner, too, and just danced around the NRA News studio, on air, screaming, to celebrate Christie's victory in New Jersey.</p> <p>UPDATE: Andrew Wilcow, on with me on Sirius: "I was waiting for Mickey Mouse and the starting lineup of the Dallas Cowboys to vote, but apparently ACORN had something else to do today."</p> <p>He describes himself as more than shocked.</p> <p>ANOTHER UPDATE: Kind of moot now, but so far, Christie is carrying Middlesex County narrowly... which Obama carried by 30 percentage points.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzAzYzIwNGE4NTE1OTQ2MTUyNTE3NDA1NzU4NzMzYzE= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 22:10:49 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWE1NjAxMzFiNGE0YmU1MTMyNTE5YzJmNTI0OGFjNzU= With 79 percent of precincts reporting, Chris Christie leads by 1 percent, or about 1,000 votes, in Bergen County, a county that Barack Obama carried by 10 percentage points.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWE1NjAxMzFiNGE0YmU1MTMyNTE5YzJmNTI0OGFjNzU= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 21:52:55 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWYyYTZiNjQ0ODNmMTY0OWMzY2NiYTM4NGE2OTQ3ZWE= Sean Trende <a href="http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/11/03/election-night-live-blog/" target="_blank">at RealClearPolitics</a> might have the most key revelation of the hour: "Corzine would have to carry the rest of the state with about 53 percent of the two-party vote in order to sweep the state. With most of the heavily Democrat areas half in, this seems unlikely."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWYyYTZiNjQ0ODNmMTY0OWMzY2NiYTM4NGE2OTQ3ZWE= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 21:37:56 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWNhODVkMzdkNzM4YmIwZDI2NWU1NWY2Njk0YTQ3N2Q= This looks big: With 100 percent of precincts reported, Republican Chris Christie has won New Jersey's Gloucester County by about 2800 votes, a county that Christie Whitman lost in her 1997 reelection bid.</p> <p>Obama carried this county by 12 percent last year.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWNhODVkMzdkNzM4YmIwZDI2NWU1NWY2Njk0YTQ3N2Q= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 21:26:01 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmU5NmEwMzBkODViOGM5YTcwNjIzNzlmMjFmN2MxMTE= I, among others, thought that Conservative Doug Hoffman was likely to win New York's special election by a wide margin. But exit polls put him up by about 4 percentage points, and <a href="http://rsmccain.blogspot.com/2009/11/ny23-election-results-hq.html" target="_blank">word out of their camp</a> was that they expect to "win a close election."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmU5NmEwMzBkODViOGM5YTcwNjIzNzlmMjFmN2MxMTE= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 21:21:58 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTI5M2Q2YjA5NTIzOTlmYWNkMjY3Nzc0ZTc1NTE0YWU= I would note that for the past year, we've been hearing about how fewer and fewer voters self-identify as Republicans; thus, pollsters insist, Republicans make up a smaller percentage of the electorate than they have in many years.</p> <p>Of course, most of those frustrated departing Republicans, angry over Bush, or McCain, or high spending, or Mark Foley, or Harriet Miers, or what have you, go on to become independents; very few voters flip directly from one party to another overnight.</p> <p>So you end up with a pool of independents that is more conservative, and more dominated by anti-tax, anti-spending ex-Republicans. And then, in this election, we've seen the atmosphere shaped by runaway spending by a Democratic Congress and a Democratic president, with unemployment approaching 10 percent.</p> <p>So we shouldn't be that surprised to see Republicans winning independents by a wide margin; not too long ago, those voters identified themselves as Republicans.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTI5M2Q2YjA5NTIzOTlmYWNkMjY3Nzc0ZTc1NTE0YWU= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 20:56:49 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTQzY2IwNzU1ZGE1ODc0YmYyM2EzOGQyMjhhOTk0ZDQ= On the one hand, the Democratic-heavy regions of Virginia are probably among the last to report. On the other hand, the turnout in Democratic areas was pretty low today, at least according to anecdotes.</p> <p>I mention this because Governor-elect Bob McDonnell is at 60.57 percent to Creigh Deeds 39.33 percent, with a little over 54 percent of precincts reporting; Lieutenant Gov. Bill Bolling is at 58.71 percent to Wagner's 41.23 percent and Attorney General-elect Ken Cuccinelli is at 59.66 percent to Steve Shannon's 40.26 percent.</p> <p>Maybe they'll tighten some, but we're not at those laughable single-digit percentages of precincts anymore.</p> <p>By the way, with half of Bath County's precincts reporting, the turnout rate is 22 percent.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTQzY2IwNzU1ZGE1ODc0YmYyM2EzOGQyMjhhOTk0ZDQ= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 20:28:04 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDY3ODQ4YmVhMDRkZWQ2MDY5MmJhMDdkMTVlYjAyMzY= Everybody and their brother thinks that New Jersey is going to go down to the wire. But one of my readers is plugged in to a New Jersey Democrat, and this guy's running of the numbers goes to Republican Chris Christie winning by one percentage point. Admission against interest, and all that. Take it for what it's worth.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDY3ODQ4YmVhMDRkZWQ2MDY5MmJhMDdkMTVlYjAyMzY= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 20:18:02 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODc2MTRkZTBiNjkwNjFmNDhlYjI2ZGVhYzk5NmNmYjQ= Lots of talk on XM POTUS and elsewhere emphasizing how this is not a referendum on Obama. Silly, just as it's silly to insist the elections are solely reflective of Obama. The strengths and weaknesses of McDonnell and Deeds and Corzine and Christie and Hoffman and Owens are big factors as well, as are the state and region's economy, and the presence of factors like Daggett and Scozzafava, etc.</p> <p>So how much of the atmosphere of these races reflects on Obama? I'd put it at 20 to 30 percent, although I could see the argument as higher.</p> <p>If Bush were still president, Corzine would be declaring victory right now. If Obama's approval rating were 70 percent, Deeds would be competitive. Doug Hoffman has pretty explicitly made his campaign a referendum on Pelosi and the actions of the Democratic House, as has Harmer in California.</p> <p>Today's races weren't just about Obama, but it's silly to watch the MSM insist that a pretty good night for Republicans has nothing to do with him.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODc2MTRkZTBiNjkwNjFmNDhlYjI2ZGVhYzk5NmNmYjQ= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:57:40 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Nzk0YmVmN2FhM2E2YTFmMDg2MTg1Njk3YjY1ZWIyZjY= This seems pretty darn big: In New Jersey, CNN's exit poll says Christie won independents 58-33 over Corzine, with indies making up 27 percent of the electorate.</p> <p>Public Policy Polling notes that their final poll had Christie winning the independents by 23; the exit polls indicate Christie won them by 25. They interpret this as a sign that most Daggett supporters and undecideds went into the Christie pile. PPP's final poll put Christie up 6 overall.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Nzk0YmVmN2FhM2E2YTFmMDg2MTg1Njk3YjY1ZWIyZjY= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:48:45 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjFiYTM2MzhlMzE5YjUwNzNlMGY3Yzk2MTlhYjc1ZDg= With the polls in Virginia closing in one minute, the Campaign Spot Decision Desk gets a jump on the competition and declares the winners in the statewide races: Bob McDonnell wins the governor's race, Bill Bolling wins the lieutenant governor's race, and Ken Cuccinelli wins the attorney general's race.</p> <p>Early turnout indicates that Cuccinelli is the winner of the 2013 governor's race as well.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjFiYTM2MzhlMzE5YjUwNzNlMGY3Yzk2MTlhYjc1ZDg= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:59:00 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTBhNjU1NzFkOGY4OTg1MGU4ODBlYjE4N2YxODFkYTA= I'm hearing from one of my guys about a Tidewater delegate race where self-identified Republicans are significantly outpacing Democrats, in a district where they were supposed to be much closer. This guy's not guaranteeing a GOP win in that seat -- voting is still going on, after all -- but he concludes, "Any way you shake it, it is really bad for the Democrats, especially at the top of the ticket."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTBhNjU1NzFkOGY4OTg1MGU4ODBlYjE4N2YxODFkYTA= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:07:08 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjE0MmZlMWIxZjQ3YTg1OWZlMWRkOWM5ZjI1ZjE0YTM= From one of my readers in Newark:</p> <div style="new roman,new york,times,serif; "> <blockquote> <div>Figured I'd shoot you an update before the after-work rush. There has been a slight uptick in in turnout, but the biggest uptick is number of unions guys out there. The streets of Newark are crawling with people in SEIU purple shirts. They are near polling places, placing campaign lit on cars, and all the kind of stuff. Big labor is heavily invested in a Corzine win and Corzine is dependent upon them for his GOTV so it is not surprising to us that they are out there, just that it took them this long.</div> <div> </div> <div>The Essex campaign HQ has more workers then I have ever seen before, which includes 2008 and 2005. Everyone is fired up because they heard Rudy and other GOP heavy hitters are in NJ and which never happens.</div> </blockquote> </div> <div>PolitickerNJ reports that Newark's <a href="http://www.politickernj.com/max/34759/newark-north-ward-report" target="_blank">North Ward</a> and the <a href="http://www.politickernj.com/max/34761/payne-guardedly-optimistic-south-ward" target="_blank">South Ward</a> are each reporting about 4,000 votes. They quote Rep. Donald Payne, a local Democrat, as saying it should be enough for a "narrow victory."</div><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjE0MmZlMWIxZjQ3YTg1OWZlMWRkOWM5ZjI1ZjE0YTM= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:00:34 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzhkMTI0ZDYxZGY3YmU1YzBiMjM0ZTVkN2M0NTYyMmI= And now we see <a href="http://www2.dailyprogress.com/cdp/news/local/local_govtpolitics/article/afternoon_election_turnout_results/48400/#When:19:26:44Z" target="_blank">one of the reasons for Democratic panic in Virginia</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Charlottesville-area polling places are reporting low to moderate levels of voter turnout, election officials said Tuesday afternoon. As of 1 p.m., 5,116 voters had cast a ballot in Charlottesville, marking a turnout of 18.6 percent. “That’s lower than 2005 at this point,” said Charlottesville registrar Sheri Iachetta. Voters turned out at a slightly higher rate in Albemarle County, where 25.9 percent of voters had cast a ballot by 1 p.m.</p> </blockquote> <p>Last year, Obama carried Albemarle County 59 percent to 40 percent. In 2005, Democrat Tim Kaine carried the county with 61 percent.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzhkMTI0ZDYxZGY3YmU1YzBiMjM0ZTVkN2M0NTYyMmI= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 16:14:36 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjgwOGQwOWNjNDkwMWQ3OTU2MGZhYzRjZmE4MDczMTM= I just heard Neil Cavuto on Fox News citing <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDY5MzVlYTFmOWU2OGI0NzY0ZjYxY2E0ZGNiMzM5ZGY=" target="_blank">a post from earlier today</a>, about how in New Jersey, turnout is higher in counties that McCain won than it is in ones that Obama won.</p> <p>I stand by what I've written; as I hear it from my folks in the various campaigns, media sources, party apparatuses, etc., I pass it on to you. Most of these reports are being confirmed by other media sources. But we're still talking about going to a half-dozen polling places per county and asking poll workers how many have voted so far. Again, while we can strongly suspect that voters in McCain counties would be pro-Christie and voters in Obama counties would be pro-Corzine, we'll have to wait until the votes start getting counted.</p> <p>But I'd just remind folks that midafternoon five years ago, the buzz was that John Kerry was going to be the 44th President of the United States. So some years, the early voting isn't representative.</p> <p>Having said that, a reader offered a good point. We're used to a usual after-work rush. But compared to a year ago, there are quite a few people with no work to go to this morning.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjgwOGQwOWNjNDkwMWQ3OTU2MGZhYzRjZmE4MDczMTM= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 16:07:11 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MmU4NWRkMjE1NzFjN2NjYmNhMWFmMDY3MTg1OTMzMmE= One of my Virginia guys who's plugged in says he's not surprised by Democratic reports of panic; the indicators and things he's seen make him think it's justified.</p> <p>Again, it's early; the after-work crowd could be much more Democratic and make the overall picture look different. The Democrats have a few more hours to try to make these delegate races look better for themselves. But from everything we're hearing and seeing, it seems safe to say the GOP had an <em>excellent </em>morning.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MmU4NWRkMjE1NzFjN2NjYmNhMWFmMDY3MTg1OTMzMmE= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 15:48:45 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDVkYmYwMDY5ZDAwNzAwMzUzYmRjMzY3MzVmNDgyYjM= <a href="http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/11/thousands_more_mail-in_ballots.html" target="_blank">NJ.com</a> offers similar assessment of New Jersey turnout to what I have heard:</p> <blockquote> <p>As for voter turnout at polling booths, a year has made a big difference, according to officials in counties around the state. While last year, most voting places had lines snaking around corners for the presidential race, the response hasn't nearly been the same, officials said.<br /><br />"All the feedback I've gotten so far is that not only is it not like last year, but <strong>even with the gubernatorial election, we're not getting a big turnout</strong>," said Jerry Midgette, the administrator for the Somerset County Board of Elections.<br /><br />In Middlesex County, officials said they have not heard of any large turnouts or major problems at the poling places -- only a few voters who wanted to know if they could vote despite having forgotten their mail-in ballots. They were told they could using provisional ballots.<br /><br />Some voting machine problems have been reported in Essex, Somerset and Gloucester counties.<br /><br />In Essex, Union, and Morris, officials said they had not heard about the turnout by early afternoon, but in Hunterdon County, officials said it was busier than they expected.</p> </blockquote> <p>I had <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDY5MzVlYTFmOWU2OGI0NzY0ZjYxY2E0ZGNiMzM5ZGY=" target="_blank">reported earlier</a> that Hunterdon's turnout was the highest in the morning.</p> <p>If turnout is lower than usual for a gubernatorial election, it's a bad sign for Corzine. But we're still awaiting the post-work rush . . .</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDVkYmYwMDY5ZDAwNzAwMzUzYmRjMzY3MzVmNDgyYjM= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 15:15:04 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWJlZWUzOTc3ZmNmN2MxZTA5ODYzYmY2NDAxZmY5MmI= One of my California readers writes in about the last race of the day, the special House election in California, where Republican David Harmer takes on Democrat John Garamendi.</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Linotype; "><span style="font-family: ">Have not voted yet. Will give you a report on that later. I thought you might find this of some interest. I am now reg. as a Repub, but wife is still reg. as a Dem. As a result we get mailings and calls from both side, and I work out of the house, so I hear them all.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Linotype; "><span style="font-family: ">In the case of the Garamendi calls, they are all pre-recorded. Some have Garamendi’s voice, some have Bill Clinton and maybe other pols on the line. <br />In the case of the Harmer calls, I have been called at least three times to participate in ongoing telephone town halls, and I listened in on a couple of them. I have also gotten regular campaign calls for Harmer, some are pre-recorded with his voice, and one was live from his mother-in-law. Seemed like a very nice lady, and she was delighted to hear that both I and my Dem wife will be voting for Harmer.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Linotype; "><span style="font-family: ">No door-knockers in our neighborhood for either candidate.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Linotype; "><span style="font-family: ">Don’t know if Harmer can pull this off, but if he does I wonder if the more personal touch has something to do with it?</span></span></p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">A Harmer win would be a mega-earthquake that would make New Jersey look like a minor tremor. Really tough to see a Republican win. But having said that, it wouldn't be surprising if Harmer made this race uncomfortably close for Garamendi.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Linotype; "><span style="font-family: ">Interestingly, moments ago on MSNBC, Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D., Md.), who heads up the DCCC, was saying he's confident of a Garamendi win in CA-10, but emphasizing that it's not a "slam-dunk district." Really? It's not Pelosi's, but it's still pretty darn Democratic. How about an "easy-lay up district"?</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Linotype; "><span style="font-family: ">UPDATE: A reader who voted in this district says a poll worker described the turnout at his polling place as "a steady trickle."<br /></span></span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWJlZWUzOTc3ZmNmN2MxZTA5ODYzYmY2NDAxZmY5MmI= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 14:54:13 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Yjc5NmJmNTBjOGEyZDEzNjkzZTUxOTEyZjliMzI4YjI= I'm passing these two observations from liberal Virginia bloggers on to readers, but they're so out of line with expectations, I have a hard time buying them.</p> <p>First, from Not Larry Sabato, <a href="http://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/statuses/5397098385" target="_blank">about the Virginia delegate races</a>: <span style="-small;">"SIX SEATS ARE GONE -- ANOTHER NINE ARE IN PLAY FOR GOP PICKUP."</span> Yesterday I predicted a GOP gain of six seats; I think most Virginia Republicans saw picking up 11 as their best-case scenario.</p> <p>Then, from <a href="http://www.bluevirginia.us/2009/11/tim-kaine-on-msnbc-open-election-thread.html" target="_blank">Blue Virginia</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>I'm a bit skeptical of this, so take it with as big a grain of salt as you'd like, but it's from an excellent source. They got exit poll results from a precinct in Arlington that went 60%+ for Kaine in '05. With around 250 voters sampled over a 5-hour period this morning, McDonnell is up 22 points on Creigh Deeds. WTF? I mean, if that's even CLOSE to being true, it's horrible. Also, even if it gets better through the day, we're talking about possible margins in Arlington of less than 60% possible for Deeds. For comparison purposes, Tim Kaine got 74% of the vote in Arlington in 2005.</p> </blockquote> <p>Are these two trying to motivate lethargic Democrats? Or is there really evidence of a building Republican wave in <em>northern </em>Virginia?</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Yjc5NmJmNTBjOGEyZDEzNjkzZTUxOTEyZjliMzI4YjI= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 14:43:48 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDY5MzVlYTFmOWU2OGI0NzY0ZjYxY2E0ZGNiMzM5ZGY= I want to preface this by noting that all of this is based only on the early voting, and is based on about a half-dozen polling places in every county in New Jersey; some known as historically Republican districts, some known as historically swing districts, and some known as historically Democratic districts.</p> <p>A trusted source tells me that as of noon, total turnout in the GOP the swing districts in NJ is significantly outpacing turnout in Democrat districts. The turnout ratio is not quite two to one, but it's not that far from it.</p> <p>Now, this should NOT be interpreted as ipso facto evidence that Chris Christie is going to win. Democratic districts may have more voters show up later in the day. This isn't an exit poll, and we have no idea how the folks in any of these districts are voting; we just know that they're showing up and voting.</p> <p>But, as of this morning, turnout was higher Republican areas of the state than in Democratic ones, and that has to make Chris Christie and his supporters feel like they're doing their jobs well...</p> <p>UPDATE: I have a bit more detail now. Again, this is based strictly on the morning turnout, and there's the afternoon and evening turnout could look completely different.<br /><br />The two heaviest turnout counties are Hunterdon, which McCain carried by 13.3 percent over Barack Obama, and Morris County, which McCain carried by 8.1 percent.<br /><br />The phenomenon is not uniform; Union Country's turnout is described as above Ocean's, and Obama carried Union by 27 percent; Ocean County's turnout is described as "good," and McCain carried that county by 18 percent. <br /><br />Hudson County and Essex County were described as "light." Hudson County is heavily Democratic, with Obama carrying it by 46 percent last year; he carried Essex County with 75 percent of the vote.<br /><br />Salem County's turnout is described as "unbelievably sleepy"; Obama carried that county by 4 percent.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDY5MzVlYTFmOWU2OGI0NzY0ZjYxY2E0ZGNiMzM5ZGY= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 14:03:10 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTRiODJhYmUyOGFjYzE1NzQ2ZjJhMjE0YTdjMDUwMTE= Earlier today, the Democratic party of Virginia left this on my door to remind me that the outcome of the Virginia governor's race does not reflect upon the popularity or public support of Barack Obama:</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www2.nationalreview.com/dest/2009/11/03/3b01e52183cb94f40f104a01b9b239fa.jpg" alt="Deeds door hanger showing him with Obama." width="192" height="550" /></p> <p>Now that we all know that Creigh Deeds has run away from Obama, and there's no reason to think that failing to vote for Deeds could be construed as a lack of support for Obama, we can move on.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTRiODJhYmUyOGFjYzE1NzQ2ZjJhMjE0YTdjMDUwMTE= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:55:52 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OGU0NWY4NmVlYTdlZjY0M2U5NGYwNWI3NDc2Y2YyNDM= I've been hearing quite a bit of anecdotal evidence in the vein of this message.</p> <blockquote> <p>Thought I'd chime in. I've been working in Newark (biggest city in NJ, dem stronghold) for the past 3 days, making calls, putting up signs, etc. The biggest thing going on today is no one here is going to the polls. In one polling place 49 votes were cast by 11 am, in contrast, at the same time last year, there were 378 votes cast. Unless people come out of the wood works in Newark, Christie may win this by 2-3 points regardless of Daggett. Speaking of Daggett, in my home county (Morris, Christie's base) Daggeett was the LAST name on the ballot, all the way to the right. I concur with your reader who eariler stated that he was not worried about him any more. </p> </blockquote> <p>If this description of low turnout is consistent all over the state, it's a huge deal. But it's still relatively early in the day; the late save-Corzine's-tush push will go full speed in late afternoon and evening.</p> <p>I want to see or hear about a more comprehensive survey of New Jersey polling places, but if these little anecdotes are correct, all of the late efforts for Corzine may be futile; New Jerseyans, having seen what he's done, just can't bring themselves to vote for four more years of the same.</p> <p><a href="http://www.politickernj.com/max/34752/street-level-newark-update" target="_blank">PolitickerNJ is hearing similar numbers</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Overall turnout in New Jersey's largest city is hovering near 30 percent of where it was last year when Barack Obama ultimately racked over 77,112 votes, according to Democratic Party sources on the ground.</p> </blockquote> <p>Around midmorning, I heard a strikingly low percentage for projected statewide turnout. <a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29070.html" target="_blank">Politico</a> quoted Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray: "If turnout dips below 47 percent, it’s minorities not showing up."</p> <p>What I heard was pretty well below that threshold, but I want to hear it from a few others before I throw it out there . . .</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OGU0NWY4NmVlYTdlZjY0M2U5NGYwNWI3NDc2Y2YyNDM= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:26:28 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjA5ZDQwYTM1ZWZhNGRlYjA4MzViMzQ1ZDg3ZDE4OWM= In <a href="http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/whats_new_lacking_evidence_conservatives_again_sto.php" target="_blank">discussing a Campaign Spot post from a few days ago</a>, a contributor to Talking Points Memo, in typical fashion, lies. It is not clear whether this is a result of deliberate dishonesty or merely a reflection of complete ignorance about the topic they’re writing about.</p> <p>They write:</p> <blockquote> <p>First, Jim Geraghty of National Review <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTg3YTE5Yjk1Y2Q2NDZiMjQ2ODc1MjY4YmRiYWUyMjQ=">sounded the alarm</a> last Thursday: State Democrats, he fretted, had asked that absentee voters whose signatures on their ballot request form didn't match that on their registration form -- 2300 people in all -- be given provisional ballots, rather than have their votes thrown out <strong>if they couldn't be contacted by local election officials (emphasis added by Jim).</strong> Geraghty warned: "Suspicious minds see the [Democrats' request] as an attempt to create a pool of emergency votes to be used if Christie holds a small lead on Election Night."</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">The letter from the New Jersey State Democratic Committee does NOT include the stipulation that provisional ballots be given to applicants if the local election officials can't reach them. I know this because I’ve read the letter. I have the letter. It’s not clear Talking Points Memo has the letter; if they did, they shouldn’t write that the letter says things that it doesn’t. Read the relevant section yourself:</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www2.nationalreview.com/dest/2009/11/03/f5837467f99d30d5adb4de42f452b519.jpg" alt="Letter from New Jersey Democrats wants all applicants to get provisional ballots." width="541" height="445" /></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Yes, "they want standard procedures of notifying voters" to be used, but the Democrats don’t want provisional ballots only if the county clerks can’t contact the voters; they want ALL of the applicants whose signatures don’t match to be given provisional ballots. For those with eyesight problems, and/or Talking Points Memo contributors, it says, "we propose that all VBM applicants subject to rejection on the basis of signature comparison alone receive provisional ballots by mail."</p> <p class="MsoNormal">As mentioned in the original post, county clerks generally have a pretty lenient stance on what constitutes a mismatched signature; they understand that a person might have been standing, holding a clipboard, etc; to get rejected, the signature on the absentee ballot has to be strikingly different from the one on the individual’s original voter-registration form. And also as noted in the original post, there are existing provisions under the law to sort out mismatched signatures; the Democrats want to throw out those laws at the last minute.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Also unmentioned by Talking Points Memo, but <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTg3YTE5Yjk1Y2Q2NDZiMjQ2ODc1MjY4YmRiYWUyMjQ=" target="_blank">mentioned in the original post</a>, are two cases of indictments and guilty pleas to charges of election fraud in New Jersey using absentee ballots. That would seem rather relevant to anyone who wasn’t just throwing up a post trying to insist there’s nothing to see here.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">If you’re going to criticize my reporting, get your G*****n facts straight.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">UPDATE: The TPM contributor, Zachary Roth, writes in:</p> <blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">I didn't mean that the Dems' letter stipulated that provisional ballots would go only to voters who couldnt be contacted.  I was just trying to say that if the Dems request wasnt granted, these votes would be thrown out unless the voters could be contacted.  I can see how you could have read it differently, though.  Hence my update.  But there's no lying going on.</p> </blockquote> <p class="MsoNormal">I appreciate him writing in and trying to clarify. But I think his original wording was pretty clear and pretty misleading.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjA5ZDQwYTM1ZWZhNGRlYjA4MzViMzQ1ZDg3ZDE4OWM= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 11:55:11 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmUwYjY2MTA0YWJmM2VkNjU2MmZjMzhiYzQwZGUyOGM= <p class="MsoNormal">Last night I went to the final campaign rally of the Creigh Deeds campaign. There I enjoyed a rare combination of special election-season joys: crisp fall night air, a warm drink, 200 to 250 Democrats milling around to the opening band while a giant stack of DEEDS FOR VIRGINIA yard signs stood by unused.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Yes, dozens and dozens of local Democrats turned out for a 7 p.m. Monday gathering that featured Deeds <em>and </em>lieutenant governor candidate Jody Wagner <em>and </em>attorney general candidate Steve Shannon <em>and </em>former local delegate Brian Moran <em>and </em>local congressman Jim Moran <em>AND </em>both U.S. senators, Jim Webb and Mark Warner, <em>AND </em>the current governor, Tim Kaine. This was Virginia Democrats pulling out all the stops . . . and while the crowd wasn’t embarrassingly small, it was roughly the same turnout that Brian Moran got for his final primary-campaign event, held midday on a Monday.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">I was surprised to learn that the inarticulate, unclear, clumsily evasive guy whom I have covered and occasionally mocked this year didn’t show up. No, if you had seen nothing else in this campaign, you would have thought the man who stood before the crowd last night had a decent shot at winning.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">I know Deeds has mentioned this anecdote once or twice on the trail, but it was new to me last night, and was far and away the most gripping and compelling thing he’s said all campaign. He mentioned that when he was growing up in rural Bath County, he didn’t have much “stuff,” but that they always had enough to eat, because they lived on a farm. He said that as a teenager, he worked as a counselor at a summer camp run by his uncle, and on one of the first days, he encountered a young boy bewildered when everyone sat down for lunch.</p> <p>"This little boy looked me in the eye and said, 'You mean we eat more than once a day here?'" Deeds recalled. The crowd was silent.</p> <p>Deeds said that the moment punctured the bubble of his bucolic existence, as he recognized that there were children who went to bed hungry, not living too far from him; Deeds said that was what motivated him to go into public life.</p> <p>Now, when I <a href="http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OWZlOWU1MjBlOWE3Njk2MmJjNzQ1OGMyMjk4ZDA1ODk=">looked at Deeds’s legislative career</a>, a tireless effort to feed the hungry wasn’t what jumped out at me; mostly the candidate’s appetite for making deals and raw ambition. But let’s give Deeds the benefit of the doubt and say that yes, the hunger of a small boy was what drove him to try to make a difference in this world.</p> <p>Then where was this in Deeds’s campaign? Where was that in any of his ads? Why did the Deeds campaign seem to have an obsessive-compulsive disorder about McDonnell’s thesis from 20 years ago?</p> <p>Picture Creigh Deeds saying, “I first ran for office because there are people out there who are dirt poor, who are vulnerable, who have caught some bad breaks and they don’t have much power, or influence, or any clear way to improve their lives. There are a bunch of Virginians from one year to one hundred years who are too weak, too vulnerable, too easily overlooked, and not enough folks are speaking up for them. I know it’s an uphill battle, but I’m running for governor because I want to be the voice for all of those folks out there who can’t speak for themselves.” (Put aside, for a moment, Deeds’s sad flip-flop on abortion.)</p> <p>Would that win Deeds this race? Maybe, maybe not, but I think he would at least be likeable; right now, Deeds is at 34 percent favorable, 42 percent unfavorable. Never mind voting for him; he can’t get Virginans to think well of him; he’s just the jerk who keeps clogging up prime-time television and drive-time radio with over-the-top negative ads.</p> <p>Sometime soon, I hope we get the story on how the Deeds campaign shaped its strategy, and who insisted that tying Bob McDonnell to the Spanish Inquisition was the right approach. It turned a challenging race into, most likely, the worst political disaster for Virginia Democrats in 16 years.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Beyond that, the night offered a cavalcade of unintentionally funny moments: <span class="entry-content">Maybe 200 overwhelmingly white Alexandria Democrats kinda-sorta half-heartedly grooving to the Black Eyed Peas' "Let's Get It Started."</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Democratic AG candidate Steve Shannon cited a horrific child-abduction case as moment when he learned "results really matter."</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Governor Kaine shouted, "They can have the polls, we have the people!" (Who, pray tell, are the polls measuring?)</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Jim Webb began by declaring, "This is a time of crisis in Virginia . . . We're seeing a lot of good jobs go away." Moments later, he introduced the man who ran the state during this continuing crisis as jobs departed, current governor Kaine.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Finally, Deeds's rally ended to Sheryl Crow's "Soak Up the Sun." At night.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmUwYjY2MTA0YWJmM2VkNjU2MmZjMzhiYzQwZGUyOGM= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 11:24:25 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWJmZmU0M2Q2OWEwMWU4MDFkMWJkMWQ4ZTQzNWE1ZTQ= Interesting. I had seen on Twitter someone write that turnout was high in New Jersey's cities -- a good sign for Jon Corzine, and an indicator that the walking-around money was flying like ticker-tape at a Yankee World Series Championship parade -- but a few readers in the Garden State are offering some counter-evidence:</p> <blockquote> <p>I live in Montclair, New Jersey, which is big-time Democrat country.  I voted at 8 a.m. and I was the only one there. Last year, the line was 6 or 7 deep continually and there were lots of Obama supporters outside with shirts and posters.  Nothing at all this year.</p> </blockquote> <p>A reader in Passaic County notices that lingering issue of ballot placement:</p> <blockquote> <p>Daggett was on line K.  It took me a minute to find him.  I'm still worried about voter fraud, but I'm not longer worried about Mr. Daggett.</p> </blockquote> <p>This report suggests that the suburbanites, who seem less likely to be pro-Corzine, are coming out:</p> <blockquote> <p>I live in a small suburban Essex County town, Verona, which usually swings slightly Republican. In fact I can't remember the last time the town was over 50 percent Democrat. Even Obama slightly lost to McCain. Of course, Verona is a tiny town of around 13,000 people.<br /> <br />When I voted this morning, before 10 a.m., the lady running the machine said she was very surprised at the amount of people who had voted already. She stated that I was the 115th person to vote on her station. There are probably about 10 or so voting places in Verona for reference. My district used to be a long time Republican strong hold in Verona but some of the Montclair/NYC elites have moved in but I'd still say that the majority in that district are Republicans. In any event the high turnout seems like it could be a positive sign early in the day.</p> </blockquote> <p>And late last night, a reader shared this assessment, focusing heavily on my old hometown:</p> <blockquote> <p>We do internal polls at the county level, and it shows the Democrats are in trouble in several assembly races... Metuchen is a Middlesex county belweather, we have approx. 4,000 registered Democrats, 2,000 registered Republicans, and 5,200 registered Independents. Metuchen usually goes for the Democrats in governor's races and presidential races, but we all feel that this is going to be a “Florio Free in ’93” moment for Corzine. Normal Democrats in my town are not supporting Corzine. The folks outside the state don’t understand the depth of feeling against him since last year when he tried to monetize the highways and put tolls on roads that don’t presently have tolls. He has refused to stop spending on the unions contracts, he is building pre-schools with millions in borrowed money, in a state where kindergarten is not mandated, billions on Abbott Districts in poor cities with no educational results. I believe tomorrow night Christie will be the governor-elect. Although, NJ has a reputation for being corrupt, I know on a personal level (6 campaigns) that our elective process is much better than other states and has quite clear oversight guidelines and process regarding absentee ballots. As to keeping the polls open, I don’t believe we are going to get presidential levels of turnout. Obama was campaigning in Newark and Camden yesterday (African American areas) he has yet to come to the rank and file dem in the corridor ( 10 miles east and west of the Garden State Parkway) white blue collar and fed up with the outrageous property taxes.</p> </blockquote> <p>Corzine has been dropping in <a href="http://www.intrade.com/" target="_blank">InTrade</a>, too...</p> <p>UPDATE: Another intriguing observation:</p> <blockquote> <p>I'm in New Brunswick NJ, home to Rutgers University and a city that votes very democratic- high student and hispanic population. Anyways, I voted at 9 and there was no one there. I was the 17th vote since the polls opened at 6. Now, maybe it means nothing (I'm in a quiet area of downtown New Brunswick, so it might just not be very busy), but I thought there would be more traffic- there is a local municipal issue on the ballot that has gotten a lot of publicity. <br /> <br />One other note- I had signed up to be a Christie challenger and even attended a training last weekend. However, no one from the Christie campaign was present (the training was run by the local county GOP) and despite numerous emails I never received my location or materials so I am not challenging today. I hope this is an isolated incident and not reflective of the Christie campaign's organizational skills.</p> </blockquote> <p>Perhaps this reader wasn't needed; on Mark Levin's program yesterday, Christie said his campaign had 300 lawyers ready to go to fight election shenanigans.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWJmZmU0M2Q2OWEwMWU4MDFkMWJkMWQ4ZTQzNWE1ZTQ= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 10:34:59 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjA0NGIxMDUxYjA3NTc4MWJhNWU3MGE2YmI1YTY1ZTY= I should be appearing on <a href="http://michaelgraham.com/" target="_blank">Michael Graham's program</a> momentarily...</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjA0NGIxMDUxYjA3NTc4MWJhNWU3MGE2YmI1YTY1ZTY= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 10:09:43 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODgyNzE3MmExNGE0ZGZiNzI1YTRkMjg2ZDUyZmFjYTg= In my collection of <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NGQzZTJiOTU2OTk1YTE1NTE5NDJiMGNjZWM0YTY1MmQ=" target="_blank">voting hours</a>, and <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjE3ZTgxMzg3N2ZiNWM1NGQwYmEzZDhmMjg2MDJkMzM=" target="_blank">predictions from yesterday</a>, I forgot that today Pennsylvania has a municipal elections for a variety of local races, as well as for candidates seeking Supreme Court, Superior Court, Court of Common Pleas and municipal court seats. The State Supreme Court seat is between <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/wires/ap/news/state/pennsylvania/20091031_ap_pahighcourtraceyieldscashbutnotclarity.html" target="_blank">Democrat Jack Panella and Republican Joan Orie Melvin</a>.</p> <p>UPDATE: Say, Election Day is a swell day for a <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/news/breaking/20091103_SEPTA_workers_going_on_strike.html" target="_blank">Philadelphia transit strike</a>. Hope you didn't need a ride to the polls!</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODgyNzE3MmExNGE0ZGZiNzI1YTRkMjg2ZDUyZmFjYTg= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 09:56:04 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2QxZDMxYzAyOTFiODZkNTY1NjcyYWY1OGM0MDJmMTY= Presuming this statement from the campaign of Barbara Comstock is accurate, the closeness of the delegate race in McLean, Virginia seems to be bothering Democrat Margi Vanderhye. Because nothing screams "confidence" like a candidate threatening the high school volunteers of the opposition:</p> <blockquote> <p>“This evening at a McLean grocery store, Delegate Margi Vanderhye bullied and threatened local high school students who were distributing campaign literature for Republican candidate Barbara Comstock. <br /><br />“A group of Langley High School students were volunteering this evening distributing campaign literature and Vanderhye began berating the students and told them she was going to report them to their principal.  Vanderhye then proceeded to follow the students around the parking lot and told them that if they distributed the literature she was going to remove it.  Her husband also joined her in taking the literature and disposing of it.  <br /><br />“Vanderhye’s meltdown and attack on high school students volunteering in a campaign and engaging in their first amendment rights is an outrage.  These students were shocked that a public official would threaten and attempt to intimidate them in an effort to prevent them from engaging in their political and first amendment rights.” </p> </blockquote> <p>Report them for <em>what</em>, precisely?<br /><br />And who's Vanderhye's legal adviser, Dede Scozzafava?</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2QxZDMxYzAyOTFiODZkNTY1NjcyYWY1OGM0MDJmMTY= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 09:44:31 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGZlMjQ3MDI3ZjI0NGFiZDZmZWExNTdlMjc3ZDRjODE= I made my get-out-the-vote call to Campaign Spot brother, who's unenthusiastic about Christie but loathes Corzine.</p> <p>Over on the homepage, I have a piece on <a href="http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ZGNmMjYwNDcyNzMwZTlhMzEzZGM0MmE2YzBkNmUyODc=" target="_blank">what this election means to New Jersey</a>, and how the state has changed in the decade and a half since I left -- in short, "it's as if an H-bomb of gloom detonated some years back <span>and the fallout continued to plague the residents."</span></p> <p>Also read <a href="http://nrd.nationalreview.com/article/?q=Mjc0ZjhjMzRkNmIxYjA0MmQzNmM1MmZkMGEwNjFmNzQ=" target="_blank">Duncan Currie's piece from yesterday</a>, detailing how the state's Byzantine local government structures and special commissions have created a kingdom of filthy, parasitic patronage.</p> <p>By the way, when I title this post, "New Jersey's Do-or-Die" moment, it's more appropriate than I thought, with  reports that <a href="http://www.electionjournal.org/2009/11/03/video-terrified-voter-says-nj-dems-using-gangbangers-for-gotv/" target="_blank">Democrats are using gang members for get-out-the-vote efforts</a>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGZlMjQ3MDI3ZjI0NGFiZDZmZWExNTdlMjc3ZDRjODE= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 09:25:46 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDY0MWVjYmYxYjA2MWY1MGEwZmY0MzVlMzM4MzUzZWU= This morning, in heavily-Democrat Yuppie Acres neighborhood of Alexandria, Virginia, turnout was strikingly light by comparison to last year's primary and (obviously) general elections; a bit more than the special local election held earlier this year.</p> <p>Other reports from readers around Virginia:</p> <blockquote> <p><span><span style="-small;">We live in Chesterfield County, just outside of Richmond.  My wife and I showed up just before the polls opened, and a good number of people were there in the first half hour.  We are in a heavily Republican area - everyone seemed to have a smile on their face, unlike a year ago when everyone looked pretty grim.  Interesting symbolism for the campaign - the Republican table was set up under the lighted school canopy, and the lone Dem guy set up his table outside the canopy.  The sun was not up yet, so when the lights came on the Republicans were in the light and the Dems in the dark.</span></span></p> </blockquote> <p><span><span style="-small;">Closer to where I am, in what I suspect is a similarly heavily-Democratic area:  </span></span></p> <blockquote> <p>I live in the Pentagon City area of Arlington and just voted around 7:45 a.m.  I waited over an hour at that time last November in a precinct that gave Obama 64 percent, but was able to walk right up to a booth this morning.  There was literally no line and only 3 of 6 booths were being used at the time.  It is a ghost town here.</p> </blockquote> <p>Some readers wonder if low turnout reflects more use of absentee ballots this year. About 99,000 Virginians cast absentee this year.</p> <p>But also, near Williamsburg:</p> <blockquote> <p>I estimate that maybe 100 people will vote in this election.<br /> <br /> But seriously.  Last year I was at my polling place at 5 am.  The line was over 100 strong and around the corner.  Today, there were 2 people in line at 5:50.  Sad, but certainly bodes well for us!</p> </blockquote> <p>Obviously, you can't read too much into anecdotal reports, and almost every polling place shows the same pattern: morning rush, midmorning lull, lunch crowd, midafternoon slowdown, and after-work rush.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDY0MWVjYmYxYjA2MWY1MGEwZmY0MzVlMzM4MzUzZWU= Tue, 03 Nov 2009 09:10:43 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmZjOGRmMDg0NTIyNGJhZWY3YWFiZjVkNDlmNzM2NWU= This news breaks too late to make much of a difference, but it simply confirms what many have long suspected: that the Democrats have so much of a vested interest in independent Christopher Daggett splitting the anti-incumbent vote that they are <a href="http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/34725/democrats-admit-paying-pro-daggett-call-obama-records-robocall-corzine" target="_blank">putting resources into promoting him</a>.</p> <blockquote> <p>The Democratic State Committee now admits paying for a robocall to Somerset County voters that slams Republican Chris Christie and promotes independent gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett.</p> <p>A Democratic spokeswoman says the party’s chairman, Joe Cryan, was not aware of the robocalls when he denied that the state committee had anything to do with them yesterday afternoon.</p> <p>Cryan, who told PolitickerNJ.com yesterday afternoon that the Democratic State Committee had “absolutely” nothing to do with the call, could not immediately be reached for comment.</p> </blockquote> <p>Chris Daggett's insistence that he isn't in this race to protect Corzine are kind of moot, now; whether or not <em>he</em> sees his role as protecting the incumbent, Democrats (and fairly presumably, Corzine himself) see his role in this race as splitting the opposition and ensuring another four years of Corzine.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmZjOGRmMDg0NTIyNGJhZWY3YWFiZjVkNDlmNzM2NWU= Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:42:25 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NGQzZTJiOTU2OTk1YTE1NTE5NDJiMGNjZWM0YTY1MmQ= <p class="MsoNormal">If you live in one of the states or cities below, remember to vote.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Virginia: </strong>polls are open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>New York’s 23^rd Congressional District; New York City mayoral race:</strong> polls are open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>New Jersey:</strong> Polls are open from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>California (special House election): </strong>Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Pacific.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Maine (gay marriage referendum):</strong> Apparently it <a href="http://www.fosters.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20091102/GJNEWS_01/711029970/-1/fosnews">varies by locality</a> but the earliest openings are at 6 a.m. last polling places appear to close at 8 p.m.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Washington<span> </span>also has a gay marriage referendum, but their election is conducted <a href="http://www.kingcounty.gov/elections.aspx">entirely by mail.</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Charlotte mayoral race: </strong><span>Polls are open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Atlanta mayoral race: </strong><span>Polls are open from <strong>7 </strong>a.m. until 7 p.m.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>For race-watchers, I'll be live-blogging all day tomorrow into the night, and go on the airwaves at 9 p.m. at <a href="http://www.nranews.com/" target="_blank">NRANews.com</a>, live on <a href="http://www.sirius.com/siriuspatriot" target="_blank">Sirius Patriot 144</a>, where I spent Election Nights 2004, 2006, and 2008. I'll probably do at least one appearance by phone on the <a href="http://www.hughhewitt.com/blog/" target="_blank">Hugh Hewitt show</a>, and maybe pop up a few other places.<br /></span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NGQzZTJiOTU2OTk1YTE1NTE5NDJiMGNjZWM0YTY1MmQ= Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:20:02 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjU3NWVkNTM2OTk5ZDMwZjlmZmMwNmViYjdiZWVjMGI= I look at this <a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/nj/09-nj-gov-ge-cvc.php?xml=http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/content/xml/09NJGovGECvC.xml&choices=Christie,Corzine,Daggett&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=1&lines=1&colors=Christie-BF0014,Corzine-2247AF,Daggett-A69A37,Other-1B8F3E,Not%20Voting-1B8F3E" target="_blank">trend in New Jersey's polls</a>, and can't help but wonder if certain Christie or Daggett supporters don't like saying so to a pollster. The percentage who say they're "undecided" in polls showing Corzine up: 7, 8, 8, 6, 7, 4.</p> <p>Now here's the percentage who say they're undecided in polls showing Christie up: 2, 3, 6, 5, 3, 3.</p> <p>The Corzine poll undecided averages 6.6 (you can take it out to another six, if you're demonically-inclined) while the Christie poll undecided averages only 3.6.</p> <p>(I'm not counting the Neighborhood poll, which had 15 percent undecided.)</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjU3NWVkNTM2OTk5ZDMwZjlmZmMwNmViYjdiZWVjMGI= Mon, 02 Nov 2009 16:11:45 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Yzg5YTE5YjljOGJkNDViZTRjNWViZmViMDUyMGI4MzI= One of the sites I've been meaning to check more often in my perusal of New Jersey news sites is <a href="http://www.jerseyconservative.com/" target="_blank">JerseyConservative.com</a>. Over there, Murray Sabrin - who not long ago was predicting a win by independent Chris Daggett, arguing that the stage was set for a historic upset -- now thinks the opportunity was missed: "<span class="superblock">Apparently, the anti-establishment voters are going to hold their collective noses and vote for either Corzine or Christie, cutting into Daggett's support." </span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Yzg5YTE5YjljOGJkNDViZTRjNWViZmViMDUyMGI4MzI= Mon, 02 Nov 2009 15:50:59 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWVmNjYwM2ZiMzg1N2Y3NzdhM2U0ZTM1NmE3MjMzNGI= One of my readers surprised me a great deal by e-mailing me that Nate Silver of the blog 538.com had predicted a Christie win in New Jersey. Then I read his post - there are a ton of caveats, but <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/2009-elections-preview-new-jersey.html" target="_blank">he does conclude</a>: "<span id="fullpost">Obviously, anybody's race, but I'd make Christie about the <span style="font-weight: bold;">4:3</span> favorite."</span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWVmNjYwM2ZiMzg1N2Y3NzdhM2U0ZTM1NmE3MjMzNGI= Mon, 02 Nov 2009 15:39:15 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjgyMDgwYmFmYTQyODE5M2E5OTQ5ZDZiODAxMzI3ZmI= Remember, Creigh Deeds' campaign for governor of Virginia in no way, shape, or form reflects on President Obama, as this mailer from the Deeds campaign makes clear:</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www2.nationalreview.com/dest/2009/10/28/528cb7aea2946ebc44fd7fff465b241c.jpg" alt="A Deeds flyer that is almost entirely Barack Obama." width="550" height="429" /></p> <p>And Jon Corzine's campaign for governor of New Jersey in no way, shape, or form reflects on President Obama, <a href="http://politics247.wordpress.com/2009/10/07/governor-corzine-tries-to-appeal-to-voters-by-changing-his-name/" target="_blank">as this billboard makes clear</a>:</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www2.nationalreview.com/dest/2009/11/02/1547aeee135d93cb092d5c55f780f80f.jpg" alt="An Obama-Corzine billboard." width="550" height="305" /></p> <p>And Bill Owens' campaign in New York's special House election in no way, shape, or form reflects upon the persuasive power of President Obama and Vice President Biden, as this event, <a href="http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/11/02/biden-says-ny-23-can-teach-conservatives-a-lesson/" target="_blank">as covered by CNN</a>, makes clear:</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www2.nationalreview.com/dest/2009/11/02/92c855b62ab2407d86836a34a9cd7147.jpg" alt="Joe Biden, campaigning with Owens." width="292" height="219" /></p> <p>Remember, whatever happens on Election Day, no result could possibly ever suggest that Barack Obama and his administration is not as popular, as persuasive, as well-liked or as influential as he was a year ago. Never, ever, ever.</p> <p>In related news, Sarah Palin, who we were assured was politically irrelevant and out of the mainstream, has <a href="http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=165548298434" target="_blank">issued a new statement</a>: "One way to tell Vice President Biden that we’re tired of folks in Washington distorting our message and hampering our nation’s progress: Hoffman, Baby, Hoffman!"</p> <p>But, of course, a Hoffman win wouldn't reflect upon her at all.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjgyMDgwYmFmYTQyODE5M2E5OTQ5ZDZiODAxMzI3ZmI= Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:43:21 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Mjc2YzkzZTJjOTZlMGVhNzZhOTc5NDAzNWJhNDE3MWM= Great, two more surveys out in New Jersey, with one each to please each side. <a href="http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP31_2.pdf"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Monmouth University/Gannett</span></a><strong> </strong>puts Corzine up by 2 with Daggett at 8 percent; <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=dfd3ba1b-5d93-4ed4-9e40-f535fa9bd928"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">SurveyUSA</span></a><strong> </strong>puts Christie up by 3 with Daggett at 10 percent. But I can't help but notice these groups polled on Halloween - you figure a lot of parents are out taking their little ones trick-or-treating.<br /><br />Survey USA shows independents splitting  55 percent to 25 percent in favor of Christie, while Monmouth shows him leading by a more modest 43 percent to 33 percent. In Monmouth's poll, Christie's advantage among independents shrunk from 22 percentage points to 10 percentage points in a span of two days.</p> <p>A couple of observations - this one is going to be close, obviously. Second, while this doesn't completely discount seeing an impact tomorrow, the initial sense is that we're not really seeing much of an Obama bump, even though the President has <span style="text-decoration: line-through;">moved to New Jersey</span> appeared in the state several times for Corzine in the past weeks. Third, despite my earlier pessimism, I have a hard time seeing independents breaking hard for Corzine, as Monmouth suggests.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Mjc2YzkzZTJjOTZlMGVhNzZhOTc5NDAzNWJhNDE3MWM= Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:44:17 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MGI5OWI4ODU4ZjhiMTIxN2I4MWFmMzkxZWNjOTZjNWU= Look, Dede Scozzafava is the most amoral, underhanded, unprincipled and craven creature to crawl out of New York state politics since... well, Eliot Spitzer 18 months ago. But at first, I didn't quite get why conservatives were surprised or outraged that she suddenly reversed her announcement and endorsed the Democrat. She had been exposed as a spectacularly ham-handed politician. (<em>"A reporter's asking questions I don't like! Quick, somebody call the cops!"</em>) She had made enemies all around the GOP. It's not like she had a bright future in Republican politics that she was throwing away by endorsing Owens, the Democrat.</p> <p>So I asked, <a href="http://twitter.com/jimgeraghty" target="_blank">via Twitter</a>, "what, precisely, did she owe the GOP or conservatives at this point?"</p> <p>And I got my obvious answer: <a href="http://www.redstate.com/erick/2009/11/02/it-has-been-48-hours-and-no-one-has-been-fired/" target="_blank">About $900,000</a>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MGI5OWI4ODU4ZjhiMTIxN2I4MWFmMzkxZWNjOTZjNWU= Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:24:57 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjgxYTA4YTA4MWFlNTY0MWRhYmI3OTg3Y2UxODQ2YTQ= As I more or less expected, quite a few readers expect a different outcome in New Jersey, and think I'm way too pessimistic in <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjE3ZTgxMzg3N2ZiNWM1NGQwYmEzZDhmMjg2MDJkMzM=" target="_blank">predicting a Jon Corzine win under suspicious circumstances</a>. If I am wrong, I will be elated, and as mentioned earlier, one of my readers who does a lot of number crunching of polls thinks that the electorate has actually been pretty consistent all year, that only low 40some percent of New Jersey voters want another four years of Corzine. He's been expecting a Christie win by 4 percent or so, and now these last polls are more or less in line with that.</p> <p>Another reader makes his case: "The remaining votes for Daggett are Democrats who hate Corzine but can't stomach voting for a Republican. Daggett's candidacy is actually going to benefit Christie and he's going to win by 5 points over Corzine. I've got my money where my mouth is on InTrade too."</p> <p>Obviously, if you're in New Jersey, don't get pessimistic on <em>my </em>account.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjgxYTA4YTA4MWFlNTY0MWRhYmI3OTg3Y2UxODQ2YTQ= Mon, 02 Nov 2009 11:59:29 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzkxMzZkMTUzYjkzMGU5Y2U1Mjg1MjRhOTM4NDdlYmI= Look, as noted below, I think New Jersey's governor's race is going to be really close, and a Christie win is possible. But I wouldn't take too much reassurance from today's Quinnipiac poll.</p> <p>The party identification split for the poll out this morning is 34 percent Democrat, 30 percent Republican, and 29 percent independent, with 3 percent other and 4 percent not knowing or not answering. As I've been writing this year, New Jersey's a pretty Democratic state, so I can see it being well more than the national split, and in the neighborhood of the high single digits or low double digits - 9 to 13, maybe? A four point split suggests that many one-time Democrats have given up that identification since... oh, the last Quinnipiac poll, which put it at 40 percent Democrat, 25 percent Republican, and 29 percent independent.</p> <p>I'd love for New Jersey to be a marginally Democratic state, and it could happen someday. But I don't believe that it happened overnight.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzkxMzZkMTUzYjkzMGU5Y2U1Mjg1MjRhOTM4NDdlYmI= Mon, 02 Nov 2009 11:23:41 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjE3ZTgxMzg3N2ZiNWM1NGQwYmEzZDhmMjg2MDJkMzM= Some years, I have pretty good predictions (in 2004, Marshall Manson and I predicted every state right except Wisconsin) and some years, I have pretty lousy ones. My electoral map was <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTdjZjU2YWRlODgyNjA4ODE3NTFhODQ3OGZmYjY1Yzg=" target="_blank">lousy last year</a>; I was wrong on North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Indiana, and said Pennsylvania would be a narrow Obama win. I got New Hampshire, Iowa, Missouri, Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico right. Having said that, I did put the popular vote at 52-46-1, which was pretty darn close.</p> <p>So, for this year...</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>CA-10: Democrat John Garamendi 54 percent; Republican David Harmer 45 percent. </strong>Throughout this district’s special election, I haven’t quite been able to predict a Republican win in this heavily-Democratic district. But something’s nagged at me about the brief and rare analyses of this race that I’ve read - they generally begin, ‘this is a heavily Democratic district,’ offer a bit of each candidate’s biography, then conclude, ‘well,<span> </span>this is a heavily Democratic district.’ In other words, few folks think Garamendi is giving the Democrats much reason to come out and support him, and the short bits of the Democratic candidate that I’ve seen suggest there’s something John Kerry-esque about him - stiff, awkward, old establishment, a couple quarts low on natural empathy. Meanwhile, most observers think Harmer’s run a tough, aggressive campaign. Will it be enough? Probably not, but I think Harmer shaves a lot off of the usual Democratic advantage. <span style="font-family: ">Democrats hold an 18-point advantage in voter registration in the district; Harmer can and could do better than cutting that in half.<span> </span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>NY-23: Conservative Doug Hoffman 53 percent; Democrat Bill Owens 42 percent, early, oblivious, and protest votes for Dede Scozzafava 5 percent.</strong> I can’t help but wonder whether the endorsement of Dede Scozzafava is really something you want in this race. Are there really that many voters who are intensely personally loyal to <em>her</em> in this race? Her campaign manager endorsed the Republican. Most of her remaining supporters were registered Republicans. Owens, despite getting help from the White House, etc., has had, in the past seven polls: 33, 35, 27, 29, 33, 36, 34. That’s strangely consistent, and that suggests that he’s had a lot of chances to say, “forget all that drama on the other side, I’m the guy who can represent this district best” and failed to close the deal. You figure Hoffman’s turnout effort will be churning.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>VA-Governor: Republican Bob McDonnell 58 percent, Democrat Creigh Deeds 42 percent.</strong> Ordinarily, I’d want to give myself a little leeway, but I think the atmosphere around the Deeds campaign has been pretty funereal lately. (Today’s front page Washington Post story might as well be titled, ‘sour grapes.’) Take your pick on what broke the camel's back: bad debate appearances, a suggestion that he doesn’t support the public option, a very pro forma Obama appearance, the White House trashing his campaign to the <em>Post</em>, spending less on advertising the final week (McDonnell ads are everywhere), little or no positive message to close out his campaign. I think a lot of Democrats are irked with him, and that’s a bad thing when you’re trying to get people out to vote. A portion of the blame for his landslide defeat goes to Obama for governing much more liberally than he campaigned, but only a fraction; Deeds made plenty of mistakes on his own.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>VA-Lieutenant Governor: Republican Bill Bolling 54 percent, Democrat Jody Wagner 46 percent:</strong> As noted earlier, this is the race where the Democrat is polling best, but that’s not the highest bar to clear. Bolling has had a few very minor problems in this race - he’s an incumbent, and frankly, Virginians don’t pay as much attention to the lieutenant governor’s race.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>VA-Attorney General: Republican Ken Cuccinelli 56 percent, Democrat Steve Shannon 44 percent: </strong>Steve Shannon did his best to paint Cuccinelli as an out-of-the-mainstream conservative extremist, but in the end, he <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQj6FavCF2I&feature=player_embedded">should have studied the office he sought</a>.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>VA<span>  </span>State Delegate Races:</strong> Republicans gain seven state assembly races: Comstock, LeMunyon, Garrett, Stolle, Villanueva, Clark, Morefield. Read about them <a href="http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MTVjYWM4YmUyMDEzZjQ1YzZiYjJlMzI0YjAwMTAyYmI=">here</a>.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>NJ Governor: Democrat Jon Corzine 44.6 percent, Republican Chris Christie 44.4 percent, Independent Chris Daggett 10 percent.</strong> This was the prediction you were waiting for, wasn’t it? It could very well go the other way; in fact, I can easily see Christie winning narrowly on Election Night. But then Corzine will dip into <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTg3YTE5Yjk1Y2Q2NDZiMjQ2ODc1MjY4YmRiYWUyMjQ=" target="_blank">those absentee ballots where the signatures don’t match</a>, and some friendly judge will rule that because of “dozens of people” on voting lines in Camden and Newark, polls have to be kept open until 3 a.m., and suddenly boxes of ballots from Republican precincts will go missing, etc. Many of my readers make compelling cases that the Democrats’ lack of enthusiasm will reduce their turnout to the point where the usual cheating can’t make up the difference, but I just can’t bring myself to believe that the Democrats will go quietly . New Jersey, as it is currently run, is Gotham City without Batman, and we know what happens to hard-charging prosecutors who try to clean up dirty systems. (Check out <a href="http://www.nj.com/insidejersey/index.ssf/2009/10/dirty_politicians_why_is_new_j.html" target="_blank">the illustration</a> for this Star-Ledger story on the state's festering corruption.) I believe in Chris Christie. I just don’t believe in the rule of law in New Jersey, or in the capacity of Chris Daggett’s supporters to realize that a guy polling at 10 percent isn’t going to do anything but split the anti-incumbent vote.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>New Jersey State Assembly races:</strong><span>  </span>GOP picks up one seat. Hopes were higher earlier in the year, and there won’t be a Daggett effect in these races, but I just figure there won’t be a Christie effect carrying lower-ticket races, the way there will be in Virginia. (UPDATE: A reader notes that because two legistators are elected from each district, you're more likely to see two seats shift simultaneously.)</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Other predictions: Bloomberg</strong> wins third term by a wide margin, declares himself mayor-for-life; <strong>Maine</strong> very narrowly rejects the new law that "lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages"; <strong>Washington </strong>state voters, by a wide margin, approve a referendum granting “state registered domestic partners in Washington all rights, responsibilities, and obligations granted by or imposed by state law on married couples”;<span>  </span>Republican John Lassiter narrowly beats Anthony Foxx in <strong>Charlotte's mayoral race</strong>; and finally, <strong>Yankees in 6</strong>, winning the World Series in front of the home crowd.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjE3ZTgxMzg3N2ZiNWM1NGQwYmEzZDhmMjg2MDJkMzM= Mon, 02 Nov 2009 11:09:03 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGIxY2VjYjc2MjJkMTgxYTQ1Mzg1NDFiZjdhZTg0M2Y= Today, Chris Christie offered his closing message to New Jerseyans:</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="560" height="340" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/o-jgRUHNEMc&hl=en&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="560" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/o-jgRUHNEMc&hl=en&fs=1&" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed> </object> </p> <p style="text-align: left;">Some will find this painfully generic; some will find it simple and to the point: Mismanagement of the state is driving residents away. Changing that requires a change at the top.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGIxY2VjYjc2MjJkMTgxYTQ1Mzg1NDFiZjdhZTg0M2Y= Mon, 02 Nov 2009 10:09:21 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDA3NTFiOTkyNGM0MzM5MjQxMDc1MGJjYzc2MGFkODc= A New Jersey reader says he accidentally ran across independent Chris Daggett in his neck of the woods:</p> <blockquote> <p>In the for-what-it’s-worth department, yesterday I was on my way home after exercising my second amendment rights at a Paterson, NJ, shooting range when I spotted an oddly out of place blue-blazered gentleman who looked positively bewildered on Main Street.  After seeing a couple of kids in lime-green T-shirts near the man, I realized they were Daggett’s retinue, if not entire advance team, and that indeed I was witnessing a woeful attempt at a man-of-the-people campaign moment.<br /><br />It was around 2:00 pm, many locals were out on their business, and traffic crawled slowly enough to allow me a good glimpse at Daggett’s attempt to engage passerbys.  In the minute or so  I had to view the spectacle, no one stopped or even acknowledged him as he and his handlers worked the citizens.  I won’t vote for him, but I have to admire his willingness to absorb a public humiliation in the form of outright disregard.  On the other hand, it also caused me to curse his irresponsibility in continuing a moribund campaign, which by siphoning votes from Christie may in fact harm the lives and future of the very people he was soliciting.</p> </blockquote> <p>A photo of Daggett in Paterson can be found <a href="http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/11/nj_gubernatorial_candidates_ca.html" target="_blank">here</a>. But let's acknowledge the strong suit of a third-party guy who isn't named Jesse Ventura isn't drawing a big crowd on a city street; Daggett's strongest aspects of his campaign have been his ads, getting on stage for the debates, and the get-out-the-vote ads run by, <a href="http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/11/nj_republicans_accuse_democrat.html" target="_blank">allegedly, the New Jersey Democratic state committee</a>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDA3NTFiOTkyNGM0MzM5MjQxMDc1MGJjYzc2MGFkODc= Mon, 02 Nov 2009 09:58:42 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDg3Nzc1NGI1ZTViY2FiZGMyOGVmOGQ1NTRiMDg3ZmU= I've been chewing over this morning's Quinnipiac poll, showing a rather sudden reversal from the Quinnipiac poll that came out last week.</p> <p>On Wednesday morning, Quinnipiac University released a poll that put incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine up by 5 percentage points over Republican <a class="iAs" style="border-bottom: 1px dotted darkgreen ! important; font-weight: normal ! important; ! important; text-decoration: none ! important; padding-bottom: 0px ! important; ! important; background-! important; background-image: none; padding-top: 0pt; padding-right: 0pt; padding-left: 0pt;" href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Yjg3ZGI3N2QyOTVhZTdlNTNkOTk4ZWFiNmQxMDgwOGI=" target="_blank">Chris Christie<img style="border: 0pt none; margin: 0pt; padding: 0pt; display: inline ! important; height: 10px; width: 10px; position: relative; top: 1px; left: 1px; float: none;" src="http://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/2.gif" alt="" /></a>. While a Corzine lead is certainly plausible, <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzNlNjU4NmY1MjU4Y2Q5ZTdjOWFjY2UxMzVhYTFhZWY=" target="_blank">a few things about the poll seemed a bit odd</a> — it was done over seven days, and the sample was 40 percent Democrat and 25 percent Republican.</p> <p>This morning, Quinnipiac releases a poll showing Christie up 2. (If this were basketball or football, we would suspect the referee of offering a "make-up call" to counteract an earlier botched call.) Interestingly, Christie retains his 15-percentage-point margin among independents. If that occurs on Election Day, it's really tough to see Corzine winning - he would need a <em>lot </em>of Democrats to turn out.</p> <p>It comes on the heels of the PPP poll showing Christie up 6.</p> <p>Is there real momentum for Christie in New Jersey? Republicans in the state had been predicting this for a while - that as Election Day got closer, supporters of independent Chris Daggett would realize he would be lucky to get much past 10 percent, and that the real options were four more years of Corzine or Christie.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDg3Nzc1NGI1ZTViY2FiZGMyOGVmOGQ1NTRiMDg3ZmU= Mon, 02 Nov 2009 09:35:45 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmU3Y2IyNWNiNDYyMTYxZjZkZWZkZDE3YzFmZTVmZWU= Chris Christie's final day of campaigning is full of meeting with seniors and meeting at diners. I guess he knows his demographics, and he knows where to eat.</p> <p>I like the unofficial new slogan: "Hey, diner cooks and waitresses need work, too."</p> <p></p> <blockquote> <p>Monday, November 2nd<br /> <br />BURLINGTON COUNTY <br /> <br />WHO: Chris Christie<br /> <br />WHAT: Drop-by Burlington County GOP Headquarters<br /> <br />WHEN: Monday, November 2, 2009 at 9:30 a.m. <br /> <br />WHERE: Burlington County GOP Headquarters<br />              223 High Street<br />              Mount Holly <br /> <br /> <br />OCEAN COUNTY <br /> <br />WHO: Sheriff Kim Guadagno<br /> <br />WHAT: Senior Meet and Greet<br /> <br />WHEN: Monday, November 2, 2009 at 10:45 a.m. <br /> <br />WHERE: VFW Post 8867<br />              373 Adamston Road<br />              Brick<br /> <br /> <br />MONMOUTH COUNTY <br /> <br />WHO: Chris Christie and Sheriff Kim Guadagno<br /> <br />WHAT: Senior Meet and Greet<br /> <br />WHEN: Monday, November 2, 2009 at 11:45 a.m. <br /> <br />WHERE: Seabrook Village<br />              Auditorium<br />              3000 Essex Road<br />              Tinton Falls <br /> <br /><br />MONMOUTH COUNTY <br /> <br />WHO: Chris Christie and Sheriff Kim Guadagno<br /> <br />WHAT: Drop-by Monmouth County GOP Headquarters<br /> <br />WHEN: Monday, November 2, 2009 at 12:45 p.m. <br /> <br />WHERE: Monmouth County GOP Headquarters<br />              16 West Main Street<br />               Freehold <br /> <br /> <br />MIDDLESEX COUNTY <br /> <br />WHO: Chris Christie and Sheriff Kim Guadagno <br /> <br />WHAT: Diner Stop<br /> <br />WHEN: Monday, November 2, 2009 at 2:00 p.m. <br /> <br />WHERE: Colonial Diner<br />              560 State Highway 18<br />              East Brunswick<br /> <br /> <br />ESSEX COUNTY <br /> <br />WHO: Chris Christie<br /> <br />WHAT: Drop-by Newark GOP Headquarters<br /> <br />WHEN: Monday, November 2, 2009 at 4:30 p.m. <br /> <br />WHERE: Essex County GOP Victory Center<br />              60 Park Place<br />              Newark <br /> <br /> <br />ESSEX COUNTY <br /> <br />WHO: Chris Christie and Sheriff Kim Guadagno<br /> <br />WHAT: Diner Stop<br /> <br />WHEN: Monday, November 2, 2009 at 5:30 p.m. <br /> <br />WHERE: Franklin Steakhouse and Tavern<br />              522 Franklin Avenue<br />              Nutley <br /><br />  <br />BERGEN COUNTY <br /> <br />WHO: Chris Christie and Sheriff Kim Guadagno <br /> <br />WHAT: Drop-by Bergen County GOP Headquarters<br /> <br />WHEN: Monday, November 2, 2009 at 6:30 p.m. <br /> <br />WHERE: Bergen County Republican Organization<br />              339 Main Street<br />              Hackensack <br /> <br /> <br />ESSEX COUNTY <br /> <br />WHO: Chris Christie and Sheriff Kim Guadagno<br /> <br />WHAT: Livingston Countdown to Change Get Out the Vote Event<br /> <br />WHEN: Monday, November 2, 2009 at 7:40 p.m. <br /> <br />WHERE: Crystal Plaza<br />              307 W. Northfield Road<br />              Livingston <br /><br /> <br />MORRIS COUNTY <br /> <br />WHO: Chris Christie and Sheriff Kim Guadagno<br /> <br />WHAT: Drop-by Morris County GOP Headquarters<br /> <br />WHEN: Monday, November 2, 2009 at 9:00 p.m. <br /> <br />WHERE: Morris County GOP Headquarters<br />              1719 Route 10 East<br />              Parsippany</p> </blockquote><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmU3Y2IyNWNiNDYyMTYxZjZkZWZkZDE3YzFmZTVmZWU= Mon, 02 Nov 2009 09:05:14 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTA2ZGNhY2NlMWNmMjEwMTk1MTc5NjIzNDBjYTVkOTI= <a href="http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MTVjYWM4YmUyMDEzZjQ1YzZiYjJlMzI0YjAwMTAyYmI=" target="_blank">Over on the home page</a>, I have a look at what to expect on Election Night in Virginia, beyond the governor's race.</p> <p>After I finished the article, one of my guys looked at the <a href="http://www2.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/local/article/POLLGATER30_20091030-212002/302697/" target="_blank">latest Richmond Times-Dispatch poll</a> - where Republicans lead, but with fairly high levels of undecided voters remaining, and concludes, "If I a Democrat trying to generate some optimism, I would say that lots of voters are having second thoughts after really focusing on and thinking about their choices. But, for any of the Democrats to win with the current poll breakdown, more than 75 percent of undecideds would have to break to the Democrat and that is unlikely. The only one who might -- emphasis on 'might' -- be a bit concerned is Bolling.  Voters may be looking to balance a GOP blowout with balance somewhere."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTA2ZGNhY2NlMWNmMjEwMTk1MTc5NjIzNDBjYTVkOTI= Mon, 02 Nov 2009 08:51:29 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTk3ZGM5YTE2Mjg5ODA0ZDc5OTg0N2I5ZTMzY2JlZDM= PPP's <a href="http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/11/christie-leads.html" target="_blank">numbers in New Jersey are eye-opening</a>, as is their analysis:</p> <blockquote> <p>Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 47-41 in PPP's final poll of the New Jersey Governor's race, with Chris Daggett at 11%.<br /><br />Corzine had pulled to within a point of Christie on our poll three weeks ago after trailing by as many as 14 points over the summer, but his momentum has stalled since then and Christie's built his lead back up to 4 points last week and now 6.<br /><br />Christie's advantage is due largely to his support from independents and because he has Republicans more unified around him than the Democrats are around Corzine. Christie leads Corzine 52-29 with indies, as Daggett's support with that group has declined to 16%. Christie is getting 82% of Republicans to Corzine's 72% of Democrats.<br /><br />As the campaign concludes it seems like Daggett's presence in the race has actually ended up hurting Corzine more than Christie, contrary to the earlier conventional wisdom. 45% of Daggett voters say the incumbent is their second choice to 36% for the challenger. Daggett's backers report having voted for Barack Obama by a 67-23 margin last year.<br /><br />As is the case around the country this year enthusiasm is on the Republicans' side in New Jersey. 47% of Christie's supporters say they're 'very excited' about voting this fall to just 34% of Corzine's. The electorate is also likely to be more Republican leaning this year with likely voters reporting that they voted for Obama by a 54-43 margin in 2008, a spread narrower than the actual 57-42 result in the state.<br /><br />In a finding symbolic of how unenthralled New Jersey voters were with their choices this year Christie is polling at 47% despite the fact that only 40% of voters think he made a strong case for why he should be elected Governor. Fully 27% of Christie's supporters don't feel he made the case for himself but Corzine's approval rating with that group of voters is only 3%, and those folks seem to have picked Christie as the lesser of two evils.<br /><br />Corzine could still win with an exceptional Democratic turnout on Tuesday but there aren't a lot of factors in the race pointing to that as a strong possibility.</p> </blockquote> <p>I'll have final predictions and analysis tomorrow. At this point, I can see reaons why Christie will win (voters know Corzine, don't like him, and don't expect better in his term) and why Corzine will win (a barrage of negative advertising has convinced them Christie wouldn't improve things).</p> <p>Just FYI, this poll splits 44 percent Democrat, 36 percent Republican, 20 percent independent/other.</p> <p>Really fascinating result: If the vote for Congress were held today, 46 percent said they would vote GOP, 41 percent said Democrat.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTk3ZGM5YTE2Mjg5ODA0ZDc5OTg0N2I5ZTMzY2JlZDM= Sun, 01 Nov 2009 23:15:38 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjIzZTAwNzIzZmI0Y2NmMDQ3MDliNzVhZTg5M2ZjMGQ= Dede Scozzafava, the "Republican" who withdrew from New York's special House election, has endorsed Democrat Bill Owens.<br /><br />From where Scozzafava stands, this move makes absolute sense. Clearly, she's not that much of a conservative, and on a lot of issues, her views line up with that of the Democratic nominee. If Hoffman wins, she doesn't lose much; it's not like she had a bright future in Republican politics she was throwing away. Her last-minute withdrawal seemed more easily explained by fear of a humiliating defeat than concern that a Democrat might win a previously Republican-held set.<br /><br />If Owens wins, she can gloat. She can say that the Republicans lost a seat because they were too finicky; she'll be the latest Arlen Specter, Jim Jeffords, Lincoln Chafee, Jim Leach - a figure with an R after their name, now supporting the Democrats, and now praised by so many for being sensible and bipartisan and putting partisan loyalties aside, etc.<br /><br />We will see what scenario unfolds. In the meantime... Heck of a job, Newt. And there's a million in NRCC and RNC funding well-spent. <br /><br />Having said all that, a Conservative party candidate eking out a plurality in a three-way race is one thing. A Conservative candidate winning head-to-head against a Democrat, with the endorsement of the Republican... well, the potential reverberations from this potential earthquake just got even bigger.</p> <p>For what it's worth, <a href="http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/11/more-ny-23-mess.html" target="_blank">PPP puts Hoffman ahead of Owens by 15 percentage points</a>. But it doesn't mean anything until real ballots get cast...</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjIzZTAwNzIzZmI0Y2NmMDQ3MDliNzVhZTg5M2ZjMGQ= Sun, 01 Nov 2009 18:36:09 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODY4YmJkZTk5NDJiY2E5MmY3ZDU5Y2M4Yjc0MTZiNzg= As I checked my e-mail throughout today, I reminded myself that very little that happens on the final weekend of the campaign ends up having a memorable or decisive impact. The deluge of frantic messages starts around this time every year -- did you hear this candidate say this at this rally? Did you hear this rumor of this poll showing a huge surge? Did you hear that the party is sending in a last-minute bundle of cash! Look at this crowd on a Sunday! -- but most years, looking back on the race, while the get-out-the-vote efforts may matter, the news events of those final days. <br /><br />It happens once in a while - the Bush DUI report, and Osama bin Laden's message, for example. But Kerry's joke about the troops? The weird passages in Jim Webb's book? The allegedly "racist" Playboy ad in Tennessee's 2006 Senate race? McCain's Saturday Night Live appearance?<br /><br />Eh, not really. But at the time, lots of folks, sometimes myself included, thought they could have a late impact on the momentum.<br /><br />I mention all this because there's actual, real, game-changing news today: Dede Scozzafava withdrew, turning New York's special House election into a two-man race. <a href="http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/23rd%20CD%20SNY%20Poll%20Release%203%20--%20FINAL.pdf" target="_blank">The Siena poll</a> suggests her remaining supporters were mostly Republicans; 29 percent of Republicans backed her. With the <a href="http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/10/31/rnc-commends-scozzafava-endorses-hoffman/" target="_blank">RNC</a>, NRCC, Newt Gingrich, and every other pro-Scozzafava candidate backing Hoffman, you figure most of those folks will go in Hoffman's pile. But note that 13 percent of Republicans were already backing Bill Owens, the Democrat. So crossovers aren't that unthinkable.</p> <p>A guy in the know, who's helping out with pro-Hoffman efforts up there, tells me, "<span>Of the 20 percent or so who supported Dede, we think 70 percent are registered Republicans. We are focusing on them. Hoffman has run an anti-Washington, stop Nancy Pelosi/Harry Reid campaign, so that's the message we're continuing to push."<br /> <br />He adds, "All the Dede resources from RNC et al got pushed to New Jersey, by the way, they didn't stay around to help." (Christie probably needs it more.)<br /></span></p> <p>You would think that this development means Doug Hoffman will be the next congressman from this district. But then again, not too far away and not too long ago, Jim Tedisco looked like he had a good shot, too. It's on Hoffman's campaign and its allies, now, to bring out their voters.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODY4YmJkZTk5NDJiY2E5MmY3ZDU5Y2M4Yjc0MTZiNzg= Sat, 31 Oct 2009 13:14:32 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDUwMGM0ZjlhYjkyNDg4MzBhM2M1MjEzMmYzYzI1YmI= Virginia Democratic senator Mark Warner has an extraordinarily well-timed case of the flu, keeping him from a day's worth of events with increasingly doomed gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds.</p> <p>Okay, it's flu season, and Warner could very well have the flu. But you wonder if this race were neck-and-neck, whether the popular senator would have soldiered on . . .</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDUwMGM0ZjlhYjkyNDg4MzBhM2M1MjEzMmYzYzI1YmI= Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:48:10 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Mzg1ZWFlMzMwNGUwNTQxOWQ2ZmM1YTQ0ZWUzMGMxNjM= As readers have sensed, I'm just not an optimist about Chris Christie's chances in New Jersey. Maybe it's the <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTg3YTE5Yjk1Y2Q2NDZiMjQ2ODc1MjY4YmRiYWUyMjQ=" target="_blank">hinky Democratic Party effort on absentee ballots</a>; maybe it's the miserable recent history of Republicans in the state; maybe it's that article I wrote for a now-defunct dot-com that depicted the Garden State as a swing state in 2000.</p> <p>But one of my readers, who puts my number-crunching to shame, has been arguing throughout the campaign that Corzine's constistently abysmal favorability and job approval ratings make the most likely outcome a Christie win of 4 to 5 percentage points. He recently sent me these thoughts:</p> <blockquote> <p>[Rasmussen's latest] would support a 4 point race if the undecided voters break 2-1 for Christie which is very likely. Bottom line is that all of Rasmussen’s polls have never seen Corzine ahead, and in fact, Corzine’s best poll about 10 days ago had him down one (a surge of Daggett votes brought the poll there). Daggett is now slipping in Rasmussen polls (and others). Like the FDU poll, this looks to me like a 5 point Christie win. A good ground game can save you a point, but not 5 points.</p> <p>To use a baseball analogy, the Yankees lost Game 5 to Anaheim, failing to clinch the series, morale was down with the fans (especially being ahead 6-4 in the 7th).  At the end of the game the players had the correct attitude . . . they were up 3-2 and get to play the next two at home a pretty good position to be.<br /><br />Look, New Jersey is a blue state that is getting only more blue as people with red state tendencies have left state. Yet two polls released today, have Christie winning by 3 and 2. And almost every poll shows Corzine’s support has remained flat!  In addition, Corzine’s only real weapon, Daggett, is starting to see his numbers fall. Christie is facing an incumbent who has outspent him by a 3:1 margin. While these ads have driven Christie’s negatives up, Corzine has not moved. There was zero enthusiasm for Corzine when this started and 20 million bucks later, there is still zero enthusiasm.<br /><br />A 4-5 point win is what this race is looking like . . . everything today supports that if the polling targets oversample Democrats, which is possible. While many are predicting a long night, I don’t see it.</p> </blockquote> <p>I figured I should give some folks out there some reasons for optimism . . .</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Mzg1ZWFlMzMwNGUwNTQxOWQ2ZmM1YTQ0ZWUzMGMxNjM= Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:28:46 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTgyZjY0ODQzOWZjNzIwYjRkODcwNDE4NmFhZWJhMDY= New Jersey governor Jon Corzine, the man who broke a hell of a lot of promises about not raising taxes over the past four years, conducted <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/30/nyregion/30jersey.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all" target="_blank">an interview with the <em>New York Times </em>a few days ago</a> that indicated he felt extremely confident about his reelection chances, or perhaps he momentarily forgot that he was running for reelection.</p> <p>Corzine told the <em>Times </em>he "may revisit his plan to lease the New Jersey Turnpike to raise cash — a proposal that he abandoned last year in the face of intense opposition from lawmakers and voters."</p> <p>Now he and his campaign are issuing a statementthat in his second term, <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/wires/ap/news/state/new_jersey/20091030_ap_corzinetollhikeoffthetable.html" target="_blank">Corzine would never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever raise tolls</a>. Ever. Ever, ever, ever.</p> <p>Trust him.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTgyZjY0ODQzOWZjNzIwYjRkODcwNDE4NmFhZWJhMDY= Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:04:36 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTMzMmU1NWRlMjU1ZWEwN2U0NmYwMjEzNmMzZTYwMWQ= <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/new_jersey/election_2009_new_jersey_governor" target="_blank">Rasmussen's latest puts Chris Christie up three</a>. That's not really that reassuring for Republicans; the bottom line is that this race looks to be very close.</p> <p>Maybe the <a href="http://christiefornj.com/election/" target="_blank">potential for additional toll hikes</a> will sway some of those few remaining <br />deciders . . .</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTMzMmU1NWRlMjU1ZWEwN2U0NmYwMjEzNmMzZTYwMWQ= Fri, 30 Oct 2009 14:43:26 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Yjg3ZGI3N2QyOTVhZTdlNTNkOTk4ZWFiNmQxMDgwOGI= <p class="MsoNormal">Earlier in the week, Quinnipiac University released a poll that put incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine up by 5 percentage points over Republican Chris Christie. While a Corzine lead is certainly plausible, <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzNlNjU4NmY1MjU4Y2Q5ZTdjOWFjY2UxMzVhYTFhZWY=" target="_blank">a few things about the poll seemed a bit odd</a> -- it was done over seven days, and the sample was 40 percent Democrat and 25 percent Republican.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Now word reaches me that Quinnipiac will be releasing another poll of New Jersey voters on Monday morning.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Yjg3ZGI3N2QyOTVhZTdlNTNkOTk4ZWFiNmQxMDgwOGI= Fri, 30 Oct 2009 12:18:22 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWM5ZmU2ZjI0ZjI0NTM3YjhmYzEyZGIyZGIyMjYxMmI= I have no idea whether it's a good idea for a Republican gubernatorial candidate, aiming for votes in New Jersey, to appear on Don Imus's radio program. (I take it the Rutgers women's basketball team wasn't a likely swing vote.)</p> <p>But there was something really enjoyable about Christie's appearance, a note made by <a href="http://ace.mu.nu/archives/294199.php" target="_blank">Ace of Spades</a> and <a href="http://hotair.com/archives/2009/10/29/chris-christie-man-am-i-fat/" target="_blank">AllahPundit</a>. Enough to swing an election? Eh, who knows; I don't know if Imus's show is the program of supreme political influence that it once was.</p> <p>But it's just plain funny to hear Christie respond, when asked his weight, "Five hundred and fifty pounds."</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="480" height="295" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/V5yJgqGz6nA&hl=en&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="480" height="295" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/V5yJgqGz6nA&hl=en&fs=1&" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></embed> </object> </p> <p>I like how he said Corzine "wusses out" by insisting his ad wasn't meant to mock Christie's weight.</p> <p>Best line: "I'm feeling good, Don . . . I think I <em>am </em>setting an example. We have to spur our economy, Don. Dunkin' Donuts, International House of Pancakes --  those people need to work, too."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWM5ZmU2ZjI0ZjI0NTM3YjhmYzEyZGIyZGIyMjYxMmI= Fri, 30 Oct 2009 11:43:07 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDI4ODViZmNiZWRlMjhhMGFhMmYyMmYyOTliZDE5ZDY= Amazing. A small bird flew overhead and dropped a document in my lap, revealing that in New York's special House election, the Bill Owens campaign has spent $661,199 on media advertising through October 26; the DCCC has spent $786,461; the SEIU Federal PAC has spent $128,217.<br /><br />On the Republican side, Dede Scozzafava's campaign has spent only $189,380, while the NRCC has spent $637,340.<br /><br />Conservative Doug Hoffman's campaign has spent $678,138, while the Club for Growth has spent $326,186. Common Sense for America has spent $113,905 (touting that Scozzafava is "the best choice for progressives" -- trying to dig into Owens' vote, presumably), and the National Republican Trust PAC has spent $41,240.<br /><br />That's a total of $3.6 million.<br /><br />My quick math puts the split as $1.57 million for Owens, $1.15 million for Hoffman, and about $826,000 for Scozzafava.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDI4ODViZmNiZWRlMjhhMGFhMmYyMmYyOTliZDE5ZDY= Fri, 30 Oct 2009 11:32:50 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Mjk5NTM0MTVjY2IyODdkMjhiZWNjNjg2MTMwYjI2OTg= The usual version of the joke/observation goes: "How doomed is Creigh Deeds? The current Democratic governor of Virginia, Tim Kaine, who also heads the DNC, is <a href="http://www.politickernj.com/max/34619/kaine-anticipates-sprint-finish" target="_blank">right now in New Jersey</a>, campaigning for Jon Corzine."</p> <p>But perhaps we should be saying: "How lousy a governor was Tim Kaine? He'd rather be campaigning for Jon Corzine than deal with the fact that he's managed the state so badly, his successor may get crushed by 15 to 20 percentage points."</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Mjk5NTM0MTVjY2IyODdkMjhiZWNjNjg2MTMwYjI2OTg= Fri, 30 Oct 2009 11:02:59 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmZmNjhhYTZjYjI4ZTVmYmYxMDc5MjI0MTVkNWYwNTE= In the New Jersey Republican gubernatorial primary, <em>Star-Ledger</em> columnist Paul Mulshine strongly preferred flat-tax-backing Republican Steve Lonegan, and he has been strongly critical of Republican rival Chris Christie. Incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine quoted Mulshine quite a bit, <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDE4OTE2OWZiYTA3NzdhNDQwMjFjOTdmN2U0YWQwZjQ=" target="_blank">even though he's also written headlines like</a>, "Corzine to Middle Class: Drop Dead."</p> <p>As noted in <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/finalcountdown/post/?q=YWE0N2NlNDRhNThlMWUwYzljNjcyODk4ZGEyZDM3Y2Q=" target="_blank">Final Countdown</a>, Mulshine thinks Christie may have run across a winning issue in the final days:</p> <blockquote> <p>The New York Times reports that in an interview Corzine  raised the prospect of reviving that infamous toll plan of his. Here is the passage in question:<br /><br />"The Democratic governor, Jon S. Corzine, says he may revisit his plan to lease the New Jersey Turnpike to raise cash — a proposal that he abandoned last year in the face of intense opposition from lawmakers and voters."<br /><br />As gaffes go, that's a huge one. Christie exploited it nicely by telling the assembled Hamiltonians they might face the prospect of tolls being imposed on interstates 195 and 195, both of which serve the town.<br /><br />If I were Christie, I'd devote the remaining four days to tolls. It should be all tolls, all the time.</p> </blockquote> <p>It appears Christie is following Mulshine's advice. He's released this statement, and his surrogates are sounding the same themes:</p> <blockquote> <p><span style="Narrow,Arial MT Condensed Light,sans-serif;"><span>Just today, Governor Corzine has admitted to <em>The New York Times</em> that he plans to revisit his ludicrous and misguided 800 percent toll hike plan even though New Jerseyans soundly rejected it the first time around.  As if $9 billion in new taxes, the highest tax burden in the country and the highest property taxes in the nation isn't enough, Jon Corzine wants to pay off the debt he's created by making suffocating New Jerseyans pay even more in the form of an 800 percent toll hike. Let's face it, Jon Corzine likes raising taxes and he's never going to stop doing it.</span></span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="Narrow,Arial MT Condensed Light,sans-serif;"><span>When Corzine first proposed it, Mulshine called it "the nuttiest idea ever put forth by a governor in New Jersey history."</span></span></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmZmNjhhYTZjYjI4ZTVmYmYxMDc5MjI0MTVkNWYwNTE= Fri, 30 Oct 2009 09:44:09 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjViMjgxNTE3ZGVlYTcyMGE5ZDBjOWQ4M2JhN2U0Yzk= The <em>New York Daily News</em> endorses Jon Corzine, joining the <em>New York Times</em> and <em>Philadelphia Inquirer</em>.</p> <p>While they don't explicitly say so, it seems natural for New York and Pennsylvania papers to endorse Corzine, considering all that he's done to bring New Jersey jobs to those states.</p> <p>Meanwhile, among the newspapers that are actually located in New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie has garnered endorsements from the<em> Press</em> of Asbury Park, the <em>Camden Courier Post</em>, the <em>Press </em>of Atlantic City, the <em>Home News Tribune</em> of East Brunswick, and the <em>Courier-Post</em> of Bridgewater. Independent Chris Daggett is endorsed by the <em>Star-Ledger</em> of Newark.</p> <p>Okay, a few in-state papers have called for four more years of Corzine: the <em>Record </em>of Hackensack and the <em>Trenton Times</em>.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjViMjgxNTE3ZGVlYTcyMGE5ZDBjOWQ4M2JhN2U0Yzk= Fri, 30 Oct 2009 09:30:11 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2RlZGYyZTVhN2QxZDJmYjM2NDNiMzJiODIxZGFiNDM= I see via <a href="http://twitter.com/sorendayton/statuses/5285324990" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, Soren Dayton is asking a really legitimate question about this morning's <a href="http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/10/30/another_poll_another_dead_heat_in_new_jersey.html" target="_blank">Fairleigh Dickenson University poll in New Jersey</a>, showing Corzine ahead, 44 percent to 43 percent. Another 6 percent volunteer they will vote for independent Chris Daggett, and 4 percent are undecided; in other words, the pollster did not list Daggett as an option in the initial question.</p> <p>But they find that when Daggett is included in a list of possibilities, his support grows to 14 percent, with Christie edging Corzine, 41 percent to 39 percent.</p> <p>The only justification I can think of is that certain counties will have Daggett's name well down the ballot, mixed in with eight other third-party or independent candidates. Finding his name will take a little bit of effort, and hard as it is to believe, some folks might lose interest or not bother looking for it. Maybe the comparison is to get a sense of the difference between counties where Daggett is listed third, right beneath Corzine and Christie, and these other counties . . .</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2RlZGYyZTVhN2QxZDJmYjM2NDNiMzJiODIxZGFiNDM= Fri, 30 Oct 2009 09:19:43 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTA1NzgxNzc0MjY5NWRmYjBhODYxNWU2NjY1YWM0Nzc= You might have expected this in the other state with a big governor's race, but I'm gold that the Virginia GOP is advising its team of lawyers that they're expecting a close race on "many levels." One of my guys tells me, "They seem genuinely concerned about rook and crook."</p> <p>I'll have a more comprehensive look at Virginia's non-gubernatorial races shortly, but my first instinct is that there are a bunch of state delegate races that ordinarily would be out of reach for the Republicans, but that now could be extremely competitive if McDonnell is leading a surge for his party. Maybe those races come down to a few hundred votes or less . . . leaving more incentive, and higher stakes, for shenanigans.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTA1NzgxNzc0MjY5NWRmYjBhODYxNWU2NjY1YWM0Nzc= Fri, 30 Oct 2009 09:14:22 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjliMjg4YmE4NzI2MWVkZThkM2U1MzZlNWQyMDI0MDc= Two more polls out in New Jersey this afternoon, both of which are relatively ominous for Republican Chris Christie. Democracy Corps, a Democratic firm, puts out a poll showing Corzine <a href="http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/njsw102809fq7.web.pdf" target="_blank">up by 5 percentage points</a>.<br /><br />Readers are entitled to be a bit skeptical of a poll that shows Jon Corzine's favorables and unfavorables looking better than Christie's, but it's worth remembering that Corzine has dominated the airwaves, and President Obama almost now qualifies for resident status. That might be enough to get New Jersey voters to forget that they've loathed their governor with a passion all year long.<br /><br />The <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/10/28/NJ/411" target="_blank">Daily Kos poll</a> shows Christie up a point, 42 to 41; their last poll put Christie up 4. Frustratingly, we haven't seen polls showing the same "pop" for Christie that Rasmussen and PPP did. Just about everybody shows a close race, and <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTg3YTE5Yjk1Y2Q2NDZiMjQ2ODc1MjY4YmRiYWUyMjQ=" target="_blank">concerns about voter fraud</a> make Republicans unable to feel optimistic about a close race. Norm Coleman can explain how winning a race on election night doesn't always mean you get to take the oath of office.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjliMjg4YmE4NzI2MWVkZThkM2U1MzZlNWQyMDI0MDc= Thu, 29 Oct 2009 16:29:12 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTg3YTE5Yjk1Y2Q2NDZiMjQ2ODc1MjY4YmRiYWUyMjQ= <p class="MsoNormal">This year, New Jersey’s registered voters can request a mail-in ballot for any reason. (Before 2005, voters needed to provide a reason for why they needed an absentee ballot.) The state received about 150,000 absentee-ballot applications this year.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">On about 2,300 of those applications so far, the signature on the request form does not match the signature on the voter’s registration forms with the state.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">In a development that is depressingly predictable, the New Jersey Democratic party is asking the state to provide provisional ballots for all these voters. Those ballots could, presumably, be used to overcome any narrow lead by Republican Chris Christie over Democrat Jon Corzine on Election Day.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">A mass distribution of provisional ballots, at the request of a political party, would represent a significant change from established law. Currently, when a county clerk rejects an absentee-ballot request, the clerk tries to contact the voter -- through mail, by phone, and in some cases, by attempting to contact the voter in person. And a person who has spoken to some of New Jersey’s county clerks says they’re granting wide latitude on signature styles; for them to reject a ballot request because of the signature, it has to be dramatically different from the one on file.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Could some of these cases be an election official misjudging the natural deviation in two handwriting samples from the same person? Certainly, and that's why the current system has clerks reaching out to rejected voters (presuming they actually exist) to sort out the discrepancy. But Democrats want to short-circuit the established methods of sorting out the problem, and in fact to ban rejections based on signature mismatches entirely.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Paul P. Josephson, a lawyer representing the New Jersey Democratic State Committee, wrote to Secretary of State Nina Mitchell Wells, asking her to “instruct County Clerks not to deny (vote by mail) applications on the basis of signature comparison alone.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Josephson claims that “the data reveal a troubling disparity in rejection rates<span> --</span> from hundreds of applications in Atlantic (271 rejections, or 5.84 percent) and Hudson (362, or 4.13 percent) to just a handful in counties such as Hunterdon (6, or .20 percent) and Mercer (35, or .49 percent). We also note that staff and unaffiliated voters are being rejected at a far higher ratio than Republicans by<span>  </span>a ratio of three-to-one.” But a source who has seen the data disagrees, contending the number of rejections is consistently proportional to the number of absentee ballots requested. This source described the rate of rejections as within a normal range, and he saw no clustering in particular regions.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Josephson contends that “even if the county clerks notify voters by mail that their applications have been rejected, too many of those voters will not have an opportunity to correct the situation.” But besides the county clerks’ efforts to contact voters laid out above, those who have not received an absentee ballot will still be able to vote on Election Day.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Democrats have never made this request before, not even in 2008, where many more New Jersey residents were voting through absentee ballots. Of course, that year Democrats Barack Obama and Frank Lautenberg were expected to win the statewide races handily.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Last year, the state party had no objections to the actions of county clerks; now, the party's counsel fears that the county-clerk staff “may be overworked and are likely not trained in handwriting analysis.” Strangely, these same county-clerk staffers managed to handle this year’s primary elections in New Jersey without any major complaints.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">The fears of absentee-ballot fraud in New Jersey is not theoretical or far-fetched. Earlier this year, Atlantic City councilman <a href="http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/state/atlantic-city-councilman-small-13-others-indicted-for-election-fraud">Marty Small and 13 people who worked on his unsuccessful mayoral campaign</a> “were indicted on charges they conspired to commit election fraud during the June Democratic primary through a variety of schemes involving messenger absentee ballots, state Attorney General Anne Milgram announced in Trenton.” One of those workers has <a href="http://www.mycentraljersey.com/article/20091013/STATE/91013078/0/SPECIAL11/Guilty-plea-in-Atlantic-City-messenger-ballot-fraud-case">already pled guilty.</a> Five workers were indicted on similar charges in Essex County <a href="http://www.nj.gov/oag/newsreleases09/pr20090818b.html">in August.</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Suspicious minds see the letter as an attempt to create a pool of emergency votes to be used if Christie holds a small lead on Election Night. The Secretary of State has not yet responded to the Democrats’ request.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTg3YTE5Yjk1Y2Q2NDZiMjQ2ODc1MjY4YmRiYWUyMjQ= Thu, 29 Oct 2009 12:41:56 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTgwYzI1Njg5NTU3YTJiMDgyZGQxNTgzMmJkZWI5YWQ= Two days ago, <a href="http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDhkMTA2ODNkMDVjODI4ZGU5ZDY2MGRjMDk5ZDIzYmE=" target="_blank">I urged a bit of caution</a> about polls showing Conservative Doug Hoffman leading in New York's special election, saying that I wanted to "see a poll that <em>wasn't </em>sponsored by a group that endorsed Hoffman that put him ahead before I felt confident about his chances in this race."</p> <p>Well, Daily Kos sponsored a poll, and while it doesn't show Hoffman ahead, <a href="http://washingtonindependent.com/65670/ny-23-daily-kos-poll-shows-hoffman-surge" target="_blank">Dave Weigel reports</a> that it shows him surging and really close to Democrat Bill Owens; Hoffman's at 32 percent and Owens is at 33 percent, with Republican Dede Scozzafava trailing badly at 21 percent.</p> <p>Of course, this doesn't mean Hoffman isn't winning; it just tells us that it's a close race, and that Scozzafava is, as mentioned earlier, turning into an afterthought.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTgwYzI1Njg5NTU3YTJiMDgyZGQxNTgzMmJkZWI5YWQ= Thu, 29 Oct 2009 12:04:25 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWVhZTkyMzY1MTM0YjUzYzE1YmQ1OTk5ZjM4NzNmYmU= This NRSC ad is a pretty darn funny concept. It's a little all over the map in its choice of targets, but the ending is really disturbingly appropriate:</p> <p align="center"> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="480" height="295" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/QHkAFyH0b-I&hl=en&fs=1&" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="480" height="295" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/QHkAFyH0b-I&hl=en&fs=1&" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed> </object> </p> <p style="text-align: left;">A child's voice singing is such a horror-movie cliche that at first I thought it was something from one of the usual voices-in-the-hall gorefests at the multiplex . . .</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWVhZTkyMzY1MTM0YjUzYzE1YmQ1OTk5ZjM4NzNmYmU= Thu, 29 Oct 2009 11:39:29 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODc5MzFiYTUzZTRlNDY0MGM3ZjZhYTNiZGI0NTUzYjM= A political science professor writes in:</p> <blockquote> <p><span style="-small;">There is a well-known principle in election polling -- to the best of my knowledge, it was first enunciated in an article by pollster Nick Panagakis in 1989 -- that in any election involving an incumbent, the odds are very strong that the undecided vote will break against the incumbent.  Specifically, Panagakis analyzed 155 races, and found that the plurality of undecideds voted against the incumbent 82 percent of the time, versus only 12 percent where the incumbent won a plurality.  The logic is that the incumbent tends to be much better known than the challenger, so if you're still undecided in the closing days of an election, you actually lean against the incumbent.  Assuming this to be true, it suggests that if the polls still show a dead heat by election day, Christie stands a very good chance of winning.</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="-small;">I'm familiar with that rule of thumb. But I recall back in the Kerry Spot days, a lot of Democrats insisting that Kerry would get 2/3 of the remaining undecided and only 1/3 would go to Bush, ensuring the Massachusetts senator's victory. </span>But <a href="http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/mark-mellman/8474-incumbent-rule-broken-sometimes" target="_blank">things didn't turn out that way</a>: "John Kerry and George Bush split the undecideds evenly, 1.1 points each, from the average of the final polls."</p> <p>I guess ever since then, I've been a little wary of attributing the undecideds one way or another. Does it make sense to me that the remaining undecided would prefer Christie or Daggett to Corzine? Sure. These voters know what they have gotten with Corzine: the worst state and local tax burden in the nation, higher tolls, residents fleeing, higher unemployment, a deep-rooted culture of corruption. If he hasn't closed the deal by now, it's not clear what he could do in the next four days to change people's minds.</p> <p>There's also the wrinkle that if most remaining undecideds jump on the Chris Daggett bandwagon, Corzine could eke out a narrow win.</p> <p>But there's a school of thought that undecided voters in late October are among the least informed, least aware, and least thoughtful voters out there; people who have tuned out the entirety of the campaigning for months, who didn't watch the debates, don't read or watch coverage, and can have their decision influenced by the most unlikely and random factors.</p> <p>If the undecideds break heavily for Christie, it will be welcome news to the GOP. But I wouldn't quite count on it.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODc5MzFiYTUzZTRlNDY0MGM3ZjZhYTNiZGI0NTUzYjM= Thu, 29 Oct 2009 11:07:35 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzZhNDRmYTM3YTlhMTcwM2QyYzVmYzNmNzUzMTFhMjA= A slew of old-guard conservative names at the <a href="http://www.nccfpac.com/">National Conservative Campaign Fund</a> are endorsing Doug Hoffman in New York's special House election. Among the bigger names: Ed Meese, David Keene, Alfred Regnery, Brent Bozell, Richard Viguerie, Tony Perkins, and Ken Blackwell.</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www2.nationalreview.com/dest/2009/10/29/e831e09fbf80e163873118c3abf6cb51.jpg" alt="First page of the National Conservative Campaign Fund letter for Doug Hoffman." width="426" height="550" /></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzZhNDRmYTM3YTlhMTcwM2QyYzVmYzNmNzUzMTFhMjA= Thu, 29 Oct 2009 09:57:47 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjM1N2IzMjNhYjIzYjAxMTAyN2Y5OWQ1Nzk4MzNmMTQ= <a href="http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/34592/new-jersey-public-officials-vote-then-go-jail" target="_blank">These opening sentences</a> tell you a lot about New Jersey politics:</p> <blockquote> <p>If Joe Ferriero wants a little payback before he heads off to prison, he can do it on Tuesday by voting against Chris Christie.</p> <p>New Jersey state law allows convicted felons to vote up until the time of their sentencing.  Ferriero is among a long list of political leaders who have either been convicted or pleaded guilty but have not yet been sentenced. </p> <p>Ferriero, the former Bergen County Democratic Chairman, was convicted last week on one count of extortion and two counts of mail fraud that were brought against him last year by federal prosecutors while Christie was serving as U.S. Attorney. </p> </blockquote> <p>I foresee a great slogan: <em>Jon Corzine: If he's good enough for convicted felon Joe Ferriero, isn't he good enough for your family?</em></p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjM1N2IzMjNhYjIzYjAxMTAyN2Y5OWQ1Nzk4MzNmMTQ= Thu, 29 Oct 2009 09:44:54 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2YxN2ZmYzE5NDEyOTFhNTA2OTBhZmQ2OTY5MDk4NjA= What do you do when you're secretary of state and you start taking heat at an event with Pakistanis?</p> <p>Bash the previous administration, <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j0krNnyFyarI6Vdcj4OpgvC7yn6w" target="_blank">of course</a>.</p> <blockquote> <p>Fending off a question about perceived US bias towards Pakistan's arch rival India, Clinton told the hand-picked audience that peace was the way forward.</p> <p>"If there were peace between Pakistan and India, and the outstanding issues were resolved, Pakistan would take off like a rocket in terms of economic development . . .</p> <p>Answering questions from students on US intentions and perceived failings, Clinton acknowledged past mistakes but called for a new era and was treated to applause when she voiced opposition to US president George W. Bush.</p> </blockquote> <p>Periodically you'll hear some <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/11/AR2009091103322.html" target="_blank">some old</a> <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/chi-oped1025pageoct25,0,4938426.column" target="_blank">Washington veteran</a> or <a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyharnden/100014740/time-for-barack-obama-to-stop-campaigning-and-start-governing/" target="_blank">others lament</a>, "When is the Obama administration going to realize that the campaign is over and it's time to start governing? When are they going to realize that the big pep rallies and media blitzes and fundraisers and attacking the opposition are supposed to be put aside, and it's time to start reaching deals on legislation and making hard choices?"</p> <p>Let me help them with that question: <em>Never.</em> It's never going to happen, or at least not until a severe crisis forces them to put all the usual campaign stuff aside. This crew isn't that interested in governing. To govern is to choose, and this group doesn't like making hard choices. They don't want to tell a Pakistani crowd to stop whining and stop using America and India as scapegoats for their government's bad choices. They don't want to tell their anti-war base that they have to accept more troops in Afghanistan. They don't want to admit that their stimulus hasn't created jobs the way they hoped.</p> <p>Well into 2012, we will still be hearing about the terrible mess they inherited, and our diplomatic representatives will go around the world, telling foreign audiences that their problems are the fault of the Bush administration.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2YxN2ZmYzE5NDEyOTFhNTA2OTBhZmQ2OTY5MDk4NjA= Thu, 29 Oct 2009 09:24:36 -0400 webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWI1ZWI2ZmI3MzFkYmFlMmI5MDk4MTI5ZWZjODkyYmI= A source close to Republican congressional candidate <a href="http://www.harmerforcongress.com/" target="_blank">David Harmer</a> tells me he will be on <a href="http://www.marklevinshow.com/home.asp" target="_blank">Mark Levin's show</a> on Friday, scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Eastern, noting that Levin endorsed Harmer and put a link on his website. There's also word that Mitt Romney wants to make a call for Harmer to his Bay Area supporters this weekend.</p> <p>Parts of three counties make up California's 10th District. In the 2008 Republican primary, Romney got 19,067 votes in Alameda County, 26,167 votes in Contra Costa County, and 8,937 votes in Solano County.</p> <p>UPDATE: I'm told that <a href="http://www.facebook.com/pages/HuckPAC-California/170852492864" target="_blank">HuckPAC California is doing phone banking</a> for Harmer.</p><br /><hr width=100% size=2><br /> http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWI1ZWI2ZmI3MzFkYmFlMmI5MDk4MTI5ZWZjODkyYmI= Thu, 29 Oct 2009 09:15:11 -0400